Pepper price forecast on August 17, 2024: Plunging without brakes?

Pepper prices are forecast to continue to decline on August 17, 2024. According to the Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association (VPSA), as of July 30, Vietnam had exported 164,357 tons of pepper of all kinds; of which black pepper reached 145,330 tons and white pepper reached 19,027 tons. Total export turnover reached 764.2 million USD. With the results achieved, in 5 more months, pepper can completely return to the billion-dollar path.

Compared to the same period in 2023, the export volume of pepper decreased by 2.2%, but the export turnover increased by 40.8%. The average export price of black pepper in 7 months reached 4,568 USD/ton, white pepper reached 6,195 USD/ton, up 32.7% and 25% USD respectively compared to the same period last year.

The United States is the largest pepper export market. Next are the German markets, up 97.3%; the UAE, up 39.2%; India, up 39.7%; China ranked 4th but down 84.6% compared to the same period.

Pepper price forecast on August 17, 2024: Plunging without brakes

Meanwhile, pepper price today, August 16, 2024, in the Southeast region decreased by 1,000 VND/kg in some localities compared to yesterday, trading around 138,000 - 139,000 VND/kg, the highest purchase price in Dak Lak and Dak Nong provinces is 139,000 VND/kg.

Specifically, Dak Lak pepper price was purchased at 139,000 VND/kg, a slight decrease of 1,000 VND compared to yesterday. Chu Se pepper price (Gia Lai) was purchased at 139,000 VND/kg, a decrease of 1,000 VND compared to yesterday. Dak Nong pepper price today was recorded at 139,000 VND/kg, a decrease of 1,000 VND/kg compared to yesterday.

In the Southeast region, pepper prices today decreased by 1,000 VND/kg compared to yesterday. Specifically, in Ba Ria - Vung Tau, it is currently at 138,500 VND/kg, down 1,500 VND/kg compared to yesterday; in Binh Phuoc, pepper prices today are at 138,000 VND/kg, down 1,000 VND/kg compared to yesterday.

Domestic pepper price on August 16, 2024

Update on world pepper prices from the International Pepper Association (IPC), at the end of the most recent trading session, IPC listed the price of Indonesian Lampung black pepper at 7,426 USD/ton, up 0.03%, and the price of Muntok white pepper at 8,744 USD/ton, up 0.03%.

Brazilian ASTA 570 black pepper prices remained stable at USD 6,175/ton. Malaysian ASTA black pepper prices remained stable at USD 8,500/ton; the country's ASTA white pepper prices reached USD 10,400/ton.

Vietnam's black pepper price remains at a high level of 5,800 USD/ton for 500 g/l; 550 g/l at 6,200 USD/ton; white pepper price at 8,500 USD/ton...

Since the beginning of the week, domestic pepper and coffee prices have been in an opposite state. When coffee prices increase, pepper prices decrease, and vice versa. However, these two agricultural products have in common low supply and decreasing exports.

Accordingly, Vietnam's pepper exports in the first 7 months of 2024 reached 164,357 tons compared to the 2024 harvest output of about 170 thousand tons, the remaining output is estimated to be very low. The inventory from the 2023 crop carried over plus the import volume in 2024 is about 40 - 45 thousand tons.

Obviously, the export supply from August until the end of the year will be lower than every year and will last until March 2025 when the 2025 crop is expected to start harvesting.

Higher prices have reduced demand for pepper in many markets, causing Vietnam's pepper export volume to continuously decrease in recent months.

*Information for reference only. Prices may vary depending on time and location.

Source: https://congthuong.vn/du-bao-gia-tieu-ngay-1782024-lao-doc-khong-branh-339498.html