Coffee price forecast August 8, 2024: Will it heat up again?

Coffee prices are forecast to increase again on August 8, 2024 in the domestic market. According to data from the General Department of Customs, the EU is Vietnam's largest coffee consuming market in the first half of the year, accounting for nearly 40% of the export market share with a volume of 353,468 tons and a turnover of more than 1.2 billion USD. Although the export volume decreased by 8.5% compared to the same period last year, the turnover increased by 40.7%.

According to data from the European Statistical Office (Eurostat), by the end of May, the EU spent 5.35 billion EUR to import 1.3 million tons of various types of coffee (HS 0901 and 2101) from the world, an increase of 4.8% in volume and 8.7% in value compared to the same period last year.

Coffee price forecast August 8, 2024: Hot again

The main coffee supplying markets for the EU include: Brazil, Vietnam, Honduras, Uganda, Colombia and India…

Of which, imports from Brazil led with 489,115 tons, up 28.6% over the same period last year. However, the average export price of Brazilian coffee to the EU decreased by 7.8% in the first 5 months of the year, down to 3,509 EUR/ton.

Vietnam continued to rank second with a volume of 340,598 tons and a value of more than 1 billion EUR. Compared to the same period last year, the export volume increased by only 1.5%, but the turnover increased by 42.4%, thanks to the export price of Vietnamese coffee to the EU skyrocketing by 40.3% to an average of 3,136 EUR/ton.

With this result, Vietnam's market share in the total value of EU coffee imports increased from 15.2% to 20%.

In the domestic market, today's coffee prices were updated at 4:30 a.m. on August 7, 2024 as follows, according to www.giacaphe.com, domestic coffee prices decreased sharply by 2,000 VND compared to yesterday, ranging from 120,000 to 120,500 VND/kg. Currently, the average purchase price in the Central Highlands provinces is 120,500 VND/kg, the highest purchase price in Dak Nong, Dak Lak, Gia Lai, Kon Tum provinces is 120,500 VND/kg.

Specifically, the coffee purchase price in Gia Lai province (Chu Prong) is 120,500 VND, in Pleiku and La Grai the same price is 120,400 VND/kg; in Kon Tum province, coffee is purchased at 120,500 VND/kg; in Dak Nong province, coffee is purchased at the highest price of 120,500 VND/kg.

The price of green coffee beans (coffee beans, fresh coffee beans) in Lam Dong province in districts such as Bao Loc, Di Linh, Lam Ha, coffee is purchased at 120,000 VND/kg.

In Dak Lak province, it decreased by 500 VND compared to last week; in Cu M'gar district, coffee was purchased at about 122,500 VND/kg, and in Ea H'leo district and Buon Ho town, it was purchased at the same price of 122,400 VND/kg.

Coffee price today August 7, 2024: Robusta coffee price on London floor. (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com

Updated world coffee prices at 20:45 on August 7, 2024, Vietnam time on the London exchange, the price of Robusta coffee futures for September 2024 delivery on the London exchange was at 4,453 USD/ton, up 70 USD compared to the beginning of the trading session. The delivery term for November 2024 was 4,268 USD/ton, up 78 USD; the delivery term for January 2025 was 4,119 USD/ton, up 83 USD and the delivery term for March 2025 was 3,973 USD/ton, up 70 USD.

Coffee price today August 7, 2024: New York Arabica coffee price (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com)

In particular, the price of Arabica coffee on the New York floor today at 20:45 on August 7, 2024 increased in all terms, fluctuating at 234.40 - 243.10 cents/lb.

Specifically, the September 2024 delivery period is 243.10 cents/lb; up 7.15 cents/lb compared to the beginning of the session. The December 2024 delivery period is 239.60 cents/lb, up 6.65 cents/lb; the March 2025 delivery period is 236.90 cents/lb, up 6.15 cents/lb and the May 2025 delivery period is 234.40 cents/lb, up 6.10 cents/lb.

Coffee price today August 7, 2024: Brazilian Arabica coffee price. (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com)

The price of Brazilian Arabica coffee today at 20:45 on August 7, 2024 increased sharply. Specifically, the delivery period for September 2024 is 302.40 USD/ton, up 2.39%; the delivery period for December 2024 is 298.60 USD/ton, up 3.92%; the delivery period for March 2025 is 292.50 USD/ton, up 3.65% and the delivery period for May 2025 is 277.80 USD/ton, up 9.35%.

Robusta coffee traded on the ICE Futures Europe (London exchange) opens at 16:00 and closes at 00:30 (next day), Vietnam time.

Arabica coffee on the ICE Futures US floor (New York floor) opens at 16:15 and closes at 01:30 (next day), Vietnam time.

For Arabica coffee traded on the B3 Brazil floor, it will be open from 19:00 – 02:35 (next day), Vietnam time.

This is the first time in more than a month that coffee prices have risen to triple digits. This is also the highest price in the past two weeks, the reason for the price increase in the trading session on August 6 is that the forecaster Rural Clima said that the temperature in southern Brazil could drop to near freezing next week. Colder weather in Brazil has spooked investors and forced some to close short positions, although meteorologists have dismissed the risk of frost that could damage coffee plants. In fact, according to some reputable forecasting agencies, the problem does not seem to be as serious as the forecast mentioned, it is just that coffee prices are too sensitive at this time.

Arabica prices returned to their strongest gain in nearly a month of consecutive declines as forecasts of colder weather in top producer Brazil prompted roasters to buy, Bloomberg reported.

The September contract rose as much as 5.8% in New York, recovering from a sell-off on Monday that added to the downward pressure since mid-July. The futures contract later pared gains but still widened its premium over the December contract.

Roaster bids are emerging as they take advantage of the price dip to close deals, according to a broker.

Colder weather in Brazil has spooked investors and forced some to close short positions, although meteorologists have dismissed the risk of frost damage to coffee crops.

Source: https://congthuong.vn/du-bao-gia-ca-phe-ngay-882024-tang-nong-tro-lai-337564.html