Coffee price forecast for July 1, 2024: Continued shocking drop?

Coffee prices on July 1, 2024 in the domestic market are forecast to continue to decrease slightly. The Chairman of the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa) said that the combination of drought, heat and the outbreak of mealybugs and red spiders will reduce the next Robusta crop in Vietnam by 15%-20%.

According to Vicofa's estimates, Robusta coffee production for the 2023/24 crop will be at 26.7 million bags, while Vietnam's next crop in 2024/25 will be between 21.4 and 22.7 million bags. This figure is even significantly lower than Volcafé's previous preliminary forecast of 24 million bags and much lower than the USDA's estimate of 27.85 million bags given last week.

The ICO and the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) have proposed the creation of a new global fund to support the coffee sector, especially farmers. The fund would focus on direct lending to coffee cooperatives and coffee-producing households. The goal is to increase coffee production in the face of falling supplies and rising global demand.

The Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade) recently predicted that coffee prices will increase again, mainly due to investors' increasing concerns about the supply prospects from Vietnam. Currently, hedge funds have increased their net buying positions with the forecast that the supply of Robusta from Vietnam will continue to be scarce in the coming time.

In the domestic market, today's coffee prices were updated at 4:30 a.m. on June 30, 2024 as follows, according to www.giacaphe.com, today's domestic coffee prices decreased slightly by 600-700 VND/kg, ranging from 118,200-119,200 VND/kg. Currently, the average purchase price in the Central Highlands provinces is 119,000 VND/kg, the highest purchase price in Dak Nong province is 119,300 VND/kg.

Specifically, the coffee purchase price in Gia Lai province (Chu Prong) is 119,200 VND, in Pleiku and La Grai the same price is 119,200 VND/kg; In Kon Tum province the price is 119,200 VND/kg; In Dak Nong province the coffee is purchased at the highest price of 119,300 VND/kg.

The price of green coffee beans (coffee beans, fresh coffee beans) in Lam Dong province in districts such as Bao Loc, Di Linh, Lam Ha, coffee is purchased at 118,200 VND/kg.

Coffee prices today (June 30) in Dak Lak province; in Cu M'gar district, coffee is purchased at about 119,200 VND/kg, and in Ea H'leo district, Buon Ho town, it is purchased at the same price of 119,200 VND/kg.

London Robusta coffee price (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com)

Updated world coffee prices at 20:30 on June 30, 2024, Vietnam time on the London exchange, the price of Robusta coffee futures for September 2024 delivery on the London exchange was at 4,011 USD/ton, down 36 USD compared to the beginning of the trading session. The delivery term for November 2024 was 3,850 USD/ton, down 15 USD; the delivery term for January 2025 was 3,680 USD/ton, down 11 USD and the delivery term for March 2025 was 3,588 USD/ton, down 9 USD.

New York Arabica coffee price (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com)

Similarly, the price of Arabica coffee on the New York floor today at 20:30 on June 29, 2024 increased in all terms, fluctuating at 220.95 - 226.80 cents/lb.

Specifically, the September 2024 delivery period is 226.80 cents/lb; up 0.45 cents/lb compared to the beginning of the session. The December 2024 delivery period is 224.50 cents/lb, up 0.30 cents/lb; the March 2024 delivery period is 222.85 cents/lb, up 0.25 cents/lb and the May 2025 delivery period is 220.95 cents/lb, up 0.15 cents/lb.

Brazilian Arabica coffee prices (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com)

The price of Brazilian Arabica coffee today at 20:30 on June 30, 2024 fluctuated in opposite directions. Specifically, the delivery period for July 2024 was 287.45 USD/ton, up 0.33%; the delivery period for September 2024 was 279.00 USD/ton (up 0.79%); the delivery period for December 2024 was 272.15 USD/ton (down 0.20%) and the delivery period for March 2025 was 270.65 USD/ton, up 0.35%.

Robusta coffee traded on the ICE Futures Europe (London exchange) opens at 16:00 and closes at 00:30 (next day), Vietnam time.

Arabica coffee on the ICE Futures US floor (New York floor) opens at 16:15 and closes at 01:30 (next day), Vietnam time.

For Arabica coffee traded on the B3 Brazil floor, it will be open from 19:00 - 02:35 (next day), Vietnam time.

Arabica rose on concerns about Brazil’s output. Coffee cooperative Expocacer said Brazilian coffee farmers were harvesting smaller-than-usual beans due to previous unfavorable weather.

Robusta fell due to strong liquidation on the floor. The US inflation report also affected coffee last week, when it increased expectations of a Fed interest rate cut as early as next month.

According to the General Department of Customs, in the first 6 months of 2024, Vietnam's coffee exports reached nearly 900,000 tons, worth 3.04 billion USD, down more than 8% in volume but up 38% in value compared to the same period last year. This is also a record high compared to the same period of previous years.

At the end of the first 8 months of the 2023-2024 crop year (from October 2023 to May 2024), Vietnam exported nearly 1.2 million tons of coffee, equivalent to 80% of the current crop year's output and down 7% compared to the same period last crop year. Looking at the statistics, the amount of inventory among the people is not much.

Information for reference only. Prices may vary by location.

Source: https://congthuong.vn/du-bao-gia-ca-phe-ngay-172024-tiep-tuc-giam-soc-329237.html