Previously, when working with the Ministry of Transport, the Government Standing Committee requested that the construction of high-speed railways (HSRs) must be modern, synchronous, and sustainable. Research on investment in HSR routes must be placed within the overall planning and strategic forecast of the needs of all five modes of transport: aviation, road, rail, maritime, and inland waterways.
The Ministry of Transport needs to analyze the advantages of each mode, thereby clarifying the advantages of high-speed rail transport, focusing on passenger transport, supporting air transport, and transporting goods only when necessary. Freight transport is mainly focused on existing railways, maritime systems, coastal waterways and roads.
Vietnam Railways expected to soon be upgraded to high speed after more than 140 years of being stagnant and backward
Priority for passenger transport, reserve for cargo transport
It is expected that this week, the Government Standing Committee will continue to meet to give opinions on the North-South Expressway project. Notably, the Ministry of Transport previously proposed 3 scenarios, but it is expected to reduce them to only 2. Accordingly, option 1, which is the North-South Expressway carrying only passengers, will be eliminated. The remaining two options prioritize carrying passengers and additional cargo, with an expected speed of 200-250 km/h or 350 km/h.
With a design speed of 200 - 250 km/h, the North - South High Speed Railway will be newly built with a double track scale, 1,435 mm gauge, 22.5 tons per axle, operating both passenger and freight trains, with a maximum freight speed of 120 km/h. The existing North - South railway will also be modernized to transport goods, tourists and short-distance passengers. The total investment capital under this scenario is about 72.02 billion USD.
Scenario 2 is to invest in a double-track railway, 1,435 mm gauge, 22.5 tons per axle, designed speed of 350 km/h, operating passenger trains and reserve for freight when needed; the existing North-South railway will also be modernized to transport goods, tourists and short-distance passengers; the total investment capital is about 68.98 billion USD. In case of investing in infrastructure, equipment and means to operate more freight trains on this route, the project investment capital is about 71.60 billion USD.
High-speed rail is popular in many countries, mainly for carrying passengers. Pictured: Japan's Shinkansen bullet train
According to calculations, the train from Ngoc Hoi station (Hanoi) to Thu Thiem (HCMC) is expected to stop at 6 stations on the North-South route and will take 5 hours and 26 minutes. If it stops at 23 stations on the route, it will take 7 hours and 54 minutes. Short routes such as Hanoi - Vinh, Nha Trang - Thu Thiem will take 1 - 2 hours to travel, depending on the number of stations the train stops on the route.
The choice of which option will be based on the actual forecasted demand of the market. However, according to research by consulting units, the cost of transporting 1 container from Cat Lai port (HCMC) to Hai Phong by sea is only 8 million VND, while by rail it costs 12 million VND.
In the world, the principle of reducing logistics costs is that waterways and sea transport are the cheapest, railways are in second place, followed by roads and air transport. Forecasts and actual surveys show that Vietnam's main demand for freight transport is by waterway and sea transport. The Institute of Transport Strategy and Development (Ministry of Transport) and consultants from Japan and Korea have also surveyed and calculated where goods go from where, what types, and optimized transport costs, and railways have the lowest freight transport rate. For industrial zones, annual orders should mainly be transported by sea. Existing railways mainly transport vegetables, consumer goods and some specialized bulk and liquid goods.
Studies and forecasts show that the demand for freight transport by rail is not high. However, the Ministry of Transport and consultants believe that the North-South Expressway should not be built exclusively to carry passengers, but freight transport should still be reserved in case of need to be shared with other transport sectors such as sea, air, etc. In addition, the existing North-South railway line will still be retained, modernized to transport goods, tourists and short-distance passengers. Research on world models also shows that for freight transport by train, the optimal speed is 80 km/h.
Leaning towards 350 km/h?
One issue raised by many experts when opposing the 350 km/h train plan is that this speed cannot transport goods. However, according to the consultant's calculations, a train with a design speed of 350 km/h can still carry both passengers and goods, with the plan to organize transportation according to different time frames, dividing passenger and freight trains. Fast passenger trains will run first, slower freight trains will run later or at night... Other countries also organize train operations according to this model, divided by hours.
A representative of the Ministry of Transport said that the choice of which speed option to favor for the North-South Expressway project will be commented on by the Government Standing Committee, before the Ministry of Transport completes the project to submit to the Government Standing Committee and the Politburo, expected in March.
Previously, in the conclusion announcement of Deputy Prime Minister Tran Hong Ha, the Ministry of Transport was requested to study the plan to "develop the high-speed railway synchronously, effectively, in line with the world trend, with a design speed of 350 km/h and truly become the backbone; at the same time effectively exploit the existing railway line".
Speaking to Thanh Nien , Associate Professor Dr. Tran Chung, Chairman of the Vietnam Association of Road Transport Construction Investors (VARSI), a member of the Advisory Group assisting the Steering Committee in developing the North-South Expressway Investment Project, said that members of the group had many different opinions. Supporting the option of a train design speed of 350 km/h, according to Mr. Chung, it is necessary to take shortcuts in investing in the expressway.
"Our country has had successful experience in taking shortcuts in the field of information technology, creating a huge breakthrough for many large enterprises and technology corporations. High-speed railways have strict factors in designing routes and curves. For example, the curve of a 250 km/h train is only about 3,500 m, but a 350 km/h train has a curve of up to 8,000 m. The technical factors of the rail system are very complicated. Many countries have had difficulty upgrading their 250 km/h to 350 km/h railways, and even had to rebuild a new line. Therefore, it is necessary to do it all at once at a speed of 350 km/h to avoid having to upgrade later," Mr. Chung analyzed.
According to this expert, building a 350 km/h railway is part of the goal of achieving Net Zero by 2050. In addition, if we want railways to compete with aviation, if we choose the option of a 350 km/h train from Hanoi to Ho Chi Minh City that takes only about 5.5 hours, passengers will choose the railway. But if the train only runs at 250 km/h, much slower than the plane, in the race for market share, railways will no longer be effective with aviation.
Regarding whether the high-speed railway carries passengers or both passengers and goods, Dr. Tran Chung said that priority should be given to transporting passengers only. The reason, according to him, is to specifically calculate the demand for transporting goods from Ho Chi Minh City to Hanoi by rail, or transporting goods for export to China. Vietnam has a long coastline, so exporting goods by sea is more convenient, especially in the southern and northern seaports that target the international market.
"My point of view is not to combine passenger and freight transport, because safety when organizing train operations, especially the signal information system, is also a challenge. If we also carry freight, we have to invest in additional stations, we cannot share the passenger and freight stations. In addition, we may have to invest in additional connecting roads for freight, which requires a huge investment. Therefore, priority should be given to passenger transport," said Mr. Chung.
Moving towards mastering technology
Recently, in the proposal to amend the Railway Law submitted to the Government, the leader of the Ministry of Transport said that in terms of resources, the regulation to increase the state capital contribution ratio will create a breakthrough change for the development of railway infrastructure, especially urban railways and high-speed railways that are preparing for investment. "According to estimates, if the state capital contribution increases to 80% and mobilizes 20% of private capital, only considering the national railway, by 2030, it will be possible to mobilize up to 48,000 billion VND of non-state budget capital," said the Ministry of Transport.
The Ministry of Transport also proposed regulations that provinces must coordinate and allocate adequate land funds in areas around railway stations for urban development, commercial service areas, offices, and hotels. According to estimates, the high-speed railway line alone with about 23 passenger stations and areas that can develop services and urban development around the station is about 500 hectares/station, construction density is 55%, revenue from land exploitation is estimated at up to 230,000 billion VND... The above mechanisms will be the basis and resources for developing the high-speed railway in the coming time.
The Ministry of Transport also acknowledged that the domestic railway industry is currently underdeveloped, only meeting the needs of maintenance and repair of existing railways; there is no long-term strategic direction for development. According to calculations, the cost of building the infrastructure of the railway alone is about 45 billion USD, preliminary assessments show that domestic enterprises are basically capable of implementing the infrastructure construction part with a value of up to about 30 billion USD (domestic materials and supplies can produce about 25 billion USD), creating a large market for material production, construction... For enterprises, the above policy helps domestic enterprises have the opportunity to receive modern technology transfer, master the operation, maintenance and localization of up to 30 - 40% of new train cars; creating an important driving force for domestic mechanical enterprises to develop...
About 13,000 people are needed to exploit and operate the railway.
According to Mr. Dang Sy Manh, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Vietnam Railways Corporation (VNR), VNR has proposed to the Government and has a policy to assign the railway industry to do a good job of preparing to manage and operate the high-speed railway. Accordingly, first of all, it is necessary to prepare human resources, it is estimated that the high-speed railway needs about 13,000 people for exploitation and operation. According to international experience, training must be divided into stages to avoid the situation of training too early and not having a job.
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