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| The Shangri-La Dialogue concluded with many important perceptions and statements, but there are still issues that have not found a new approach. |
The Shangri-La Dialogue is the premier security forum in the Asia-Pacific; a place to exchange and debate urgent security challenges, differences and hopes to find new approaches. The Ukraine crisis, the US-China conflict, potential risks in the Taiwan Strait, the East Sea, the Korean Peninsula, the trend of increasing military capabilities and global non-traditional security challenges overshadow the 20th conference in 2023, concentrated in 7 general discussion topics and private meetings.
The absence of Russia, the failure of the US and Chinese Defense Departments to meet, and the presence of a European Union (EU) delegation were notable events. These were the reasons that attracted more than 550 delegates from nearly 50 countries in and outside the region to attend the conference.
What did government leaders, the Ministry of Defense, and experts say during the 7 plenary sessions, 6 parallel discussions, and many bilateral meetings? What did they expect from the conference? How will the region change?... These are the things that countries, politicians, and experts are interested in and will continue to ponder after the conference. These issues can be partly found in the messages of the 2023 Shangri-La Dialogue.
Firstly , promoting cooperation in the Indo-Pacific; building a stable and balanced Asia-Pacific. The 2023 Shangri-La Dialogue both affirms the role and geostrategic position of the region and shows many potential tensions and security challenges. These are the maritime security order, the presence of major powers; the development of many security structures, trilateral, quadrilateral and multilateral security cooperation agreements between the US - Japan - India, Japan - India - Australia, the Quad, the US - UK - Australia Security Partnership Agreement (AUKUS), or the coast guard cooperation mechanism between the 5 ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Brunei and Vietnam)...
Tensed and tired of the crisis in Ukraine; confrontation between Russia and the West; the risk of nuclear collision, the arms race, the Covid-19 pandemic, climate change, economic recession…, the region does not want another geopolitical war in its development cooperation space. This was reflected in the speeches of Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, the keynote speaker; US Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin; Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu and many other delegates.
Common aspirations are the driving force behind regional cooperation and dialogue efforts, but they are also divided and hindered by differences in strategic goals, core interests, and differences in perceptions and actions of some countries, especially major powers.
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| US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu at the 20th Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore. (Source: Bloomberg) |
Second , the US and China are both in conflict and need each other, but have not found a way to “cool down”. The tension in US-China relations was a major theme that dominated the conference. Expressing viewpoints, asserting roles, criticizing opponents, and seeking support from other countries were the main contents of the speeches of US and Chinese representatives.
Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin emphasized the US leadership role in the Indo-Pacific; expressed deep concern that China is not ready to seriously participate in better crisis management mechanisms between the two militaries; has taken unnecessary aggressive actions...
In his speech on China’s new security initiative, Defense Minister Li Shangfu did not name names, but he made it clear that the US was intensifying its arms race, establishing “NATO-style” military alliances in the Asia-Pacific region, deliberately interfering in other countries’ internal affairs, and pushing the region into a “spiral of conflict.” He stressed that the US had failed to properly recognize China’s concerns and was fully responsible for the deterioration of bilateral relations.
The Taiwan issue is an important indicator of the current US-China relationship. Right before the Shangri-La Dialogue, the US and Taiwan (China) signed the "US-Taiwan Initiative for 21st Century Trade". According to Taiwan, this is not only a historic economic and trade initiative but also has many symbolic meanings, marking a new beginning. China strongly opposes it, considering US support for Taiwan to strengthen its self-defense capabilities as an "act of terrorism".
However, countries also saw a ray of hope in the speeches. Minister Li Shangfu said that China and the United States have different systems and many aspects. However, this should not prevent the two sides from finding common ground and common interests to develop bilateral relations and deepen cooperation.
Mr. Lloyd J. Austin also expressed that competition must never be allowed to turn into conflict and the US is not aiming for a new Cold War. Because they fully understand that a serious conflict or confrontation between the US and China would be an unbearable disaster for the world. The US is also tired of confronting Russia, at a disadvantage when simultaneously opening "two fronts" with the two biggest opponents.
The host Singapore deliberately arranged for the US and Chinese representatives to sit opposite each other at the same table; to give opening remarks in the important sessions on June 3 and 4. Other delegates paid great attention to the views of the two powers. However, the clear differences in views, the lack of trust in the statements and actions of the US and China have not shown the ability or way to “cool down” the tension.
All countries want the US and China to have dialogue to resolve conflicts and tensions. Some countries are also concerned if the two powers compromise on dividing spheres of influence, without paying due attention to the common interests and aspirations of the community. However, according to many experts and politicians, this is unlikely to happen.
Third, how to promote cooperation and maintain long-term peace and stability in the region. Peace, stability, cooperation and development are the common goals and aspirations of all countries. The highlight of the 2023 Shangri-La Dialogue is that delegates reached a high consensus on the “key” to opening the door and realizing the above-mentioned goals.
That is to respect international law; to strive to increase communication, dialogue, and strengthen strategic trust; to cooperate and compete, to build a risk management mechanism, to stabilize and balance relations based on international rules and standards; to promote the responsibility of countries in and outside the region, especially the US and China. British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace emphasized that the law applies to all, and all countries are equal, whether they are the smallest or the largest. His opinion was agreed with by delegates.
The first and greatest responsibility lies with the US and China. But countries, especially developing and emerging countries, have an increasingly important role to play in the “common house”; especially in the context of increasing US-China tensions.
Reality shows that sub-regional cooperation mechanisms between developing and emerging countries in terms of economics, politics, culture, security, and diplomacy, for the individual and common interests of the region, are increasingly playing a role and being effective. The ASEAN Community is a testament to this trend. New Zealand Defense Minister Andrew Little assessed that the long-term relationship between smaller countries is “what balances things out.” This is also the perception of many other delegates.
Fourth , the main obstacle and unanswered question. Countries have a forum to express their views, propose, contribute, raise concerns and debate, and criticize the positions of other countries. China and the US both acknowledge that the more exchanges, the more misunderstandings and miscalculations that can lead to crisis or conflict can be avoided.
However, there are still differences in the perception of core interests, common and individual interests. Some major countries declare their support for peace, cooperation and development, but they want that environment and trend to be within their sphere of influence, to be controlled and to bring benefits to themselves.
Countries all declare to respect international law and the United Nations Charter, but they interpret and justify their strategies and policies, applying them to serve national goals, without taking into account the legitimate interests of other countries.
The biggest obstacle is the inconsistency between statements and actions, especially by major countries. Other countries are aware of this problem and do not want to choose sides. But how to resolve the biggest obstacle is a difficult and open question.
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Within the framework of the Shangri-La Dialogue, the Vietnamese delegation led by Senior Lieutenant General Hoang Xuan Chien, Deputy Minister of National Defense, attended all plenary sessions and many bilateral meetings. Through this, Vietnam continued to affirm its active, proactive and highly responsible role in international and regional issues; demonstrated its goodwill and desire to promote friendly relations, cooperation and share experiences with partners in addressing common challenges.
The 2023 Shangri-La Dialogue concluded with many important perceptions and statements, but there are still issues that have not found a new approach. The world and the region continue to move. Many other forums, conferences, and activities will continue to take place, aiming to find ways to solve open issues and emerging problems. Each event is a milestone on the journey of human development.
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