Coffee crop failure and concerns about future supply have caused coffee prices to skyrocket, and could soon reach $6,000/ton.
Early morning of September 27 (Vietnam time), Robusta coffee price on ICE Futures Europe (London, UK) matched at 5,527 USD/ton, 81 USD/ton higher than the previous day's matched price for November delivery. This is the highest price in the history of Robusta coffee on this exchange, breaking a series of previously set records.
For the January 2025 delivery period, Robusta coffee prices increased even more, by 90 USD/ton, to 5,242 USD/ton.
At the March 2025 delivery date, Robusta coffee prices increased by 93 USD/ton, to 5,029 USD/ton.
Quick chat with Newspaper reporter Workers On the morning of September 27, Mr. Trinh Duc Minh, Chairman of Buon Me Thuot Coffee Association (Dak Lak province), said that the main reason for the sharp increase in coffee prices, especially Robusta, is still due to the shortage of supply in major producing countries such as Brazil, Vietnam, Indonesia, etc.
In particular, in Vietnam, in previous years, the output was regularly at 30-31 million bags (each bag weighs 60 kg), but in the last crop it was only 27.5 million bags and will continue to decrease in the future as farmers tend to switch to crops with higher economic value, typically durian.
The 2024-2025 coffee crop is about to be harvested and is facing drought. It only rained in May and June, but the little rain prevented the coffee beans from growing, so the yield will definitely decrease.
"The coffee shortage is real, pushing coffee prices up. These factors cannot be resolved in the short term, so next year coffee prices may peak at $6,000/ton," Mr. Minh predicted.
Mr. Minh also added that the current coffee market has the active participation of speculators, causing market prices to sometimes fluctuate outside the normal laws of supply and demand.
In the domestic market, prices are currently only fluctuating slightly, around 120,000 - 125,000 VND/kg and there are very few transactions due to the exhausted supply of the old season, and the limited supply of new crop coffee because the peak harvest will not be until November.
Source
Comment (0)