| It is forecasted that in the coming time, Vietnam's pepper exports will remain low. Vietnam is the largest source of pepper for the US market. |
Pepper inventory is not much
The Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade) cited statistics from the General Department of Customs, saying that in August 2023, Vietnam exported approximately 20.14 thousand tons of pepper, worth 75.34 million USD, up 32% in volume and 32.4% in value compared to July 2023, and up 9.0% in volume and 0.2% in value compared to August 2022.
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| Pepper exports in 2023 are forecast to increase by 3% to 5% in volume. |
In the first 8 months of 2023, Vietnam exported over 188 thousand tons of pepper, worth 615.5 million USD, up 17% in volume, but down 13.8% in value compared to the same period last year.
In August 2023, the average export price of Vietnam's pepper reached 3,741 USD/ton, up 0.3% compared to July 2023, but still down 8.1% compared to August 2022. In the first 8 months of 2023, the average export price of Vietnam's pepper reached 3,273 USD/ton, down 26.3% over the same period in 2022.
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Vietnam's 10 largest pepper export markets in the first 8 months of 2023 (Source: General Department of Customs) |
Vietnam's 10 largest pepper export markets include: the United States, the United Arab Emirates; India; Germany; the Netherlands; the Philippines; Thailand; Russia; the UK; and South Korea.
In August 2023, Vietnam's pepper exports to many markets increased by 2 to 3 digits compared to the same period last year, including: United Arab Emirates, India, Netherlands, Philippines, South Korea...
On the contrary, pepper exports to the US, Thailand, Russia, and UK markets decreased. In the first 8 months of 2023, pepper exports to most major markets decreased sharply compared to the same period last year, except for the Philippines.
According to the Vietnam Pepper Association, the actual pepper inventory among the people is not much, most of it is only in the hands of agents and some speculators. Meanwhile, some processing enterprises also have enough goods to process at the end of the year, so there is no real need to buy at this time.
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| Price developments of black pepper in the domestic market in 2022 - 2023 Source: Vietnam Pepper Association |
Recorded on September 23, 2023, pepper prices in the domestic market ranged from 70,000 - 72,500 VND/kg. Of which, Gia Lai is the locality with the lowest purchase price at 70,000 VND/kg. Slightly higher is Dong Nai with a price of 70,500 VND/kg. Dak Lak and Dak Nong provinces have the same purchase price of 71,000 VND/kg. Similarly, in Binh Phuoc and Ba Ria - Vung Tau, prices are stable at 72,000 VND/kg and 72,500 VND/kg, respectively.
According to an update from the International Pepper Community (IPC) on September 22 (local time), the price of Lampung black pepper (Indonesia) was at 4,309 USD/ton, up 0.09%; Brazilian black pepper ASTA 570 was at 2,950 USD/ton; Kuching black pepper (Malaysia) ASTA was at 4,900 USD/ton.
It is forecasted that in 2023, pepper exports will increase by 3 - 5% in volume.
According to the International Pepper Community (IPC), the output from producing countries such as Brazil, Indonesia and India are all forecast to decrease compared to 2022. However, the world economy is facing difficulties, inflation remains high, and people tighten spending, which are the reasons why major economies such as the United States and the EU have reduced pepper imports.
World pepper prices are forecast to continue to fall in the short term despite published data showing a decrease in harvest output from producing countries.
In the Vietnamese market, pepper exports are forecast to remain low due to the lack of abundant domestic supply and the lack of demand in the US and EU markets.
Currently, the amount of pepper exported from Vietnam has run out. In the last months of this year, businesses will export from imported goods and previous inventories.
It is estimated that the total inventory and imports will reach about 80,000 tons, while domestic consumption is about 10,000 tons and the inventory carried over to next year is about 30,000 tons, leaving about 50,000 tons for export in the last months of this year.
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| Developments in Vietnam's average pepper export price over the months of 2021 - 2023 (Unit: USD/ton) Source: Calculated from data of the General Department of Customs |
Speaking to reporters of the Industry and Trade Newspaper, Ms. Hoang Thi Lien - President of the Vietnam Pepper Association - said that by the end of August 2023, Vietnam's pepper exports reached about 188 thousand tons. With 4 months left until the end of 2023, at this year's pace, we believe that pepper exports in 2023 will increase by 3 - 5% in output compared to 2022 (reaching 232 thousand tons), and thus, pepper export output will fall to 240 thousand tons to 250 thousand tons. To achieve this figure, great efforts from businesses in the industry and positive signals from the market are needed.
“ The market always has demand, there are times when trading is active, but there are also times when trading is quieter. But we expect export turnover to increase by 3-5% in output compared to the same period last year,” Ms. Lien shared, adding that when talking about agricultural exports, it is often referred to in terms of output.
This is one of the important factors to be able to record the development or contraction of a product line, as well as the efforts of businesses and farmers to cooperate in the entire supply chain. After output will be the criteria for the market. With the movement of supply and demand factors, the market and price will be decided.
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