Is there a forecast of a prolonged uptrend at the end of the year?

Pepper price forecast August 23, 2024: Skyrocketing to 145,000 VND/kg? Pepper price forecast August 25: Slight decrease, is shortage of goods certain to enter the new crop?

Pepper prices are forecast to increase slightly again on August 27, 2024. As of the first half of August 2024, Vietnam's pepper exports reached about 175,000 tons, officially surpassing the output of 170,000 tons of this year's harvest. The Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association said that the purchasing power of the Chinese market has not shown signs of improvement until the end of the year. However, the world's demand for pepper is increasing and the EU region is still a large consumer market for Vietnamese pepper.

In addition, the pepper processing capacity of Vietnamese enterprises is very large, reaching 140,000 tons/year, which is an opportunity to help the Vietnamese pepper industry develop in the coming time.

Regarding pepper prices this week, experts expect the upward trend to continue. With a few days left until the National Day holiday, the buying pressure is expected to help pepper prices recover to the level of early August 2024.

Ocean freight rates are falling by an average of 3-4% per week, reflecting a steady downward trend that is expected to continue in the coming time. This is a good opportunity for export enterprises to take advantage of lower transportation costs to boost business activities, expand markets and seek strong growth in the final months of the year.

Pepper price forecast August 27, 2024: Is there expected to be a prolonged increase cycle at the end of the year?

In the domestic market, pepper prices today, August 26, 2024, in the Southeast region are stable compared to yesterday, trading around 143,000-144,000 VND/kg, the highest purchase price in Dak Lak and Dak Nong provinces is 144,000 VND/kg.

Accordingly, the price of Dak Lak pepper was purchased at 144,000 VND/kg, remaining unchanged compared to yesterday. The price of Chu Se pepper (Gia Lai) was purchased at 143,000 VND/kg, stable compared to yesterday. The price of Dak Nong pepper today was recorded at 144,000 VND/kg, unchanged compared to yesterday.

In the Southeast region, pepper prices today are stable compared to yesterday. Specifically, in Binh Phuoc, pepper prices today are at 143,000 VND/kg, unchanged from yesterday. In Ba Ria - Vung Tau, the price is currently at 143,000 VND/kg, remaining stable compared to yesterday.

Update on world pepper prices from the International Pepper Community (IPC), at the end of the most recent trading session, IPC listed the price of Indonesian Lampung black pepper at 7,490 USD/ton, stable compared to yesterday, while the price of Muntok white pepper remained at 8,818 USD/ton.

The price of Brazilian ASTA 570 black pepper remained stable at USD 6,300/ton. The price of Malaysian ASTA black pepper continued to stand firm at USD 8,500/ton; the price of this country's ASTA white pepper reached USD 10,400/ton.

Vietnam black pepper price is traded at 5,800 USD/ton for 500 g/l; 550 g/l at 6,200 USD/ton; white pepper price at 8,500 USD/ton.

Mr. Le Duc Huy - General Director of Dak Lak 2-9 Import-Export Company Limited (Simexco Dak Lak), one of the largest pepper exporting enterprises in Vietnam, said that we should be very careful when trading pepper on the exchange because the risk of speculation will increase a lot.

Mr. Huy used coffee as an example – a commodity traded on world exchanges, currently dominated by hedge funds and financial funds despite its large output. Meanwhile, pepper output is not much, so it is easier to manipulate. If there is intervention from large hedge funds, prices will fluctuate not according to the supply and demand of the real market and prices will fluctuate very strongly.

Sharing this concern, Mr. Ho Tri Nhuan - Director of Gohan Company assessed that with the current pepper market situation, the absence of a trading floor is better than having one.

Without a commodity exchange, farmers, traders and exporters can decide on the buying and selling prices. But if there is an exchange, the “financial forces” can push enterprises into an “extremely difficult” situation because the speculative nature of the funds is very large.

Domestic pepper price on August 26, 2024