How will the 'three-horse' race in the French parliamentary election play out?

Polling agencies predict Marine Le Pen's far-right National Front (RN) party has a good chance of winning a majority in the lower house of parliament for the first time, but the outcome remains uncertain given the complex electoral system.

In the first round on June 30, the RN party led with about a third of the vote. The left-wing alliance New Popular Front came in second place, ahead of President Emmanuel Macron's centrist alliance.

Place de la Republique (Paris) on June 30. Photo: AP

How do elections work in France?

The election for the 577 seats in the French National Assembly is conducted in two rounds. In constituencies where no candidate wins in the first round, the top two candidates, as well as any candidate who has more than 12.5% ​​of the total registered voters in that constituency, go into the second round.

Whoever gets the most votes in the second round wins that constituency. The high turnout on June 30 means that around 300 constituencies are now facing the risk of a three-way election, which in theory favours the RN.

To prevent this three-way election and stop the RN, French center-right and center-left politicians have long adopted what they call a “republican front,” whereby the third-place candidate withdraws from the race and calls on voters to support the second-place candidate.

By the evening of July 2, all candidates who have made it to the second round will have to decide whether to withdraw or run in the second round.

What is "cohabitation"?

If the National Front or another political force outside President Macron's centrist coalition wins a majority, he will be forced to appoint a prime minister from that new majority.

In such a situation – known as “coexistence” in France – the government would implement policies different from the president's plans.

Previously, France had gone through a total of three periods of "coexistence" since the founding of the Fifth Republic in 1958, when the President and Prime Minister came from different political parties.

In this scenario, the President would retain leadership over defense as Commander-in-Chief and over foreign policy, but would have no power to set domestic policy.

Far-right leader Jordan Bardella, who could become prime minister if his party wins a majority, said he intended to "become a Prime Minister who lives together, respects the Constitution and the role of the President of the Republic but is uncompromising on policies".

What happens if there is no majority?

The president could then appoint a prime minister from the parliamentary group with the most seats in parliament. However, the RN party says it would reject such an option, because it would mean a far-right government could soon be toppled through a vote of no confidence if other political parties joined together.

The president could try to build a broad coalition from left to right, an option that sounds unlikely given the political differences.

Another complicated option, experts say, is to appoint a “government of experts” that is not affiliated with political parties but still needs to be accepted by a majority in parliament. Such a government would likely deal mainly with day-to-day affairs rather than implementing major reforms.

If political negotiations drag on too long during the summer holidays and the Olympic Games, which take place from July 26 to August 11 in Paris, political historian Jean Garrigues said a “transition period” could not be ruled out, in which Mr Macron’s centrist government “would remain in charge of current affairs” until further decisions were made.

The negotiations over the next 48 hours will be crucial and could significantly change the outcome, potentially deciding whether the RN gains an outright majority in parliament. That makes the outcome of the second round extremely difficult to predict.

Ngoc Anh (according to AP, Reuters)

Source: https://www.congluan.vn/cuoc-dua-tam-ma-bau-cu-quoc-hoi-phap-se-dien-ra-nhu-the-nao-post301874.html