| Coffee price forecast for July 8, 2024: Will it continue to increase? Coffee price forecast for July 9, 2024: Will it continue to increase towards a new price zone? |
Coffee prices are forecast to continue to increase on July 10, 2024 in the domestic market. Some industry experts said that the driving force behind the increase in coffee prices is mainly due to the depletion of domestic supply and the high price of Robusta in the world. Although Brazil is entering the peak harvest season, global investors are concerned that Vietnam's output next crop will be low, causing Robusta coffee prices to continue to increase.
Vietnam’s coffee supply is in short supply, while speculators have begun to stockpile, so coffee prices in the third quarter are expected to continue to rise. In addition, the reduced coffee supply in major exporting countries in the world due to weather such as Brazil will cause coffee prices to tend to increase in the coming time, according to VICOFA.
The above factors are expected to bring “joy” to coffee growers. Compared to the times when coffee prices fluctuated at 30,000 – 40,000 VND/kg in previous years, the current coffee price has tripled and is considered the golden season for coffee trees. With high prices, many farmers are enthusiastically increasing their investment in fertilizers, renovating their gardens, expanding their growing areas… to increase output.
In the domestic market, domestic coffee prices were updated at 4:30 a.m. on July 9, 2024 as follows, according to www.giacaphe.com, domestic coffee prices range from 123,500-124,600 VND/kg. Currently, the average purchase price in the Central Highlands provinces is 124,300 VND/kg, the highest purchase price in Dak Nong province is 124,600 VND/kg.
Specifically, the coffee purchase price in Gia Lai province (Chu Prong) is 124,100 VND, in Pleiku and La Grai the same price is 124,000 VND/kg; In Kon Tum province the price is 124,100 VND/kg; In Dak Nong province the coffee is purchased at the highest price of 124,600 VND/kg.
The price of green coffee beans (coffee beans, fresh coffee beans) in Lam Dong province in districts such as Bao Loc, Di Linh, Lam Ha, coffee is purchased at 123,500 VND/kg.
Coffee prices today, July 9, in Dak Lak province; in Cu M'gar district, coffee is purchased at about 124,100 VND/kg, and in Ea H'leo district, Buon Ho town, it is purchased at the same price of 124,000 VND/kg.
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| London Robusta coffee price (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com) |
Updated world coffee prices at 20:45 on July 9, 2024, Vietnam time on the London exchange, the price of Robusta coffee futures for September 2024 delivery on the London exchange was at 4,503 USD/ton, up 155 USD compared to the beginning of the trading session. The delivery term for November 2024 was 4,324 USD/ton, up 148 USD; the delivery term for January 2025 was 4,127 USD/ton, up 137 USD and the delivery term for March 2025 was 3,979 USD/ton, up 132 USD.
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| New York Arabica coffee price (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com) |
In particular, the price of Arabica coffee on the New York floor today at 20:45 on July 9, 2024 increased in all terms, fluctuating at 238.30 - 246.25 cents/lb.
Specifically, the September 2024 delivery period is 246.25 cents/lb; up 11.90 cents/lb compared to the beginning of the session. The December 2024 delivery period is 243.50 cents/lb, up 11.50 cents/lb; the March 2024 delivery period is 240.90 cents/lb, up 11.05 cents/lb and the May 2025 delivery period is 238.30 cents/lb, up 11.05 cents/lb.
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| Brazilian Arabica coffee prices (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com) |
The price of Brazilian Arabica coffee today at 20:45 on July 9, 2024 increased sharply. Specifically, the delivery period for July 2024 is 296.90 USD/ton, up 2.70%; the delivery period for September 2024 is 299.15 USD/ton (up 13.15%); the delivery period for December 2024 is 297.00 USD/ton (up 5.06%) and the delivery period for March 2025 is 279.85 USD/ton, up 2.62%.
Robusta coffee traded on the ICE Futures Europe (London exchange) opens at 16:00 and closes at 00:30 (next day), Vietnam time.
Arabica coffee on the ICE Futures US floor (New York floor) opens at 16:15 and closes at 01:30 (next day), Vietnam time.
For Arabica coffee traded on the B3 Brazil floor, it will be open from 19:00 – 02:35 (next day), Vietnam time.
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) will conduct several large interest rate cuts, starting in the next few months and lasting until next summer, according to analysts at Citi Research.
In a note last Friday, Citi's research division forecast the Fed would cut interest rates eight times in a row, by 25 basis points each time, starting in September of this year and ending in July 2025.
According to analysts at Citi Research, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will conduct several large interest rate cuts, each cut by 25 percentage points, starting in September 2024 and ending in July 2025.
Tight supplies due to slow exports from Vietnam and weather issues have supported coffee prices, with supplies in the world’s top Robusta producer expected to remain tight until the next harvest picks up in November.
Traders said the gloomy export situation and supply shortage in Vietnam could last until November this year, when the new crop begins to be harvested.
Strong buying demand in Vietnam in late 2024 and early 2025 will make it difficult for spot prices to fall, traders said. However, they also noted that Indonesia’s robusta harvest is gradually picking up and is expected to improve significantly from the previous crop.
Volcafe Information has forecast a global Robusta coffee deficit of 4.6 million bags in 2024/25, which, while smaller than the 9 million bag deficit in 2023/24 but the fourth consecutive year of Robusta coffee deficit, continues to affect the market.
Certified graded Arabica coffee stocks held on the New York market are said to have fallen by 9,270 bags last Friday, posting a drawdown of 811,359 bags.
*Information for reference only
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