The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to continue lowering interest rates. However, looking further ahead, US monetary policy and a series of factors remain major variables for the Vietnamese economy next year.
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to continue lowering interest rates. However, looking further ahead, US monetary policy and a series of factors remain major variables for the Vietnamese economy next year.
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| It is forecasted that in the coming time, US interest rates will increase, leading to a shift in the Fed's monetary policy. |
The unknown of US monetary policy
This week, global investors are focused on Washington, DC, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) - the Fed's policy-making body - meets. In addition to announcing the federal funds rate, at its final rate-setting meeting of the year, the Fed will also release a Dot Plot chart, a visual representation of FOMC members' interest rate forecasts for the coming years.
Investors are betting the most on the possibility of the Fed's operating interest rate being cut by another 25 basis points. The Fed's meeting is getting more attention because a series of major central banks last week took strong and early steps in the interest rate cutting roadmap. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) unexpectedly cut interest rates the most in nearly a decade, from 1% to 0.5%. The European Central Bank (ECB) also cut interest rates to support the economy.
The story of monetary policy in the world's number one economy, along with related issues such as exchange rates, inflation, and interest rates, are also variables that leading economic experts focused on discussing at the "Investment 2025: Decoding variables - Identifying opportunities" workshop organized by Dau Tu Newspaper last week. According to Mr. Hoang Quoc Anh, Investment Director of GHG Invest, the development of 2-year Treasury bond interest rates shows that the Fed is likely to have a third interest rate cut, with a reduction of 25 basis points.
Looking further, Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu, Director of the Institute for Research on Development of Global Financial and Real Estate Markets, is not too optimistic about the global context next year.
Mr. Hieu predicts that US interest rates will increase, leading to a pivot in the Fed's monetary policy. Although the timing has not been determined, this expert believes that the world's number one economy may face the risk of rising inflation again due to high commodity prices after the imposition of taxes, a shortage in the labor market due to the new immigration policy, or a reduction in income tax policy that could cause a budget deficit. This leads to the possibility that the US government will issue bonds with high interest rates to balance the budget.
“With the above factors, I predict that US interest rates will increase, leading to a shift in the Fed's monetary policy and increasing the value of the USD, putting pressure on the exchange rate,” Mr. Hieu emphasized.
According to this expert, the VND/USD exchange rate could increase by 5% throughout the year and will continue to fluctuate upward.
Sharing the same view, Mr. Barry Weisblatt David, Director of Analysis, VNDirect Securities Company, said that the inflation risk from President Donald Trump's policies is changing VNDirect's forecasts when building the base scenario. With the DXY index anchored high, the VND/USD exchange rate will be under a lot of pressure. Mr. Barry Weisblatt David also left open the risk that the State Bank will have to raise interest rates if the exchange rate pressure gets out of control.
Meanwhile, Mr. Trinh Ha, a strategy expert at Exness Investment Bank, said that Mr. Trump's policies will follow a certain roadmap. The positive point is that the Fed is expected to continue cutting interest rates in 2025 and measures to ease oil and gas exploitation can reduce inflationary pressure somewhat. Despite the slowdown, when the Fed continues to cut interest rates, the income of businesses and people will continue to increase, thereby promoting investment channels.
With the possibility of the USD maintaining its strength, Mr. Ha also believes that there is increasing pressure on the exchange rate. However, in the short term, the DXY index measuring the strength of the greenback is at 106 - 107 points, reflecting investors' expectations and has been pushed up somewhat too high. When the year-end seasonal factor is eliminated, the cooling inflation will relieve some of the pressure on the USD.
Multi-colored "corner pieces"
The year 2025 poses many challenges and opportunities for the Vietnamese economy. Similar to the “corner piece” of a Rubik’s cube, from different perspectives, these international macro variables have different colors. Not only in the story of the Fed’s monetary policy, the impact of US trade policy on Vietnam under Donald Trump is also an unknown with many conflicting views.
Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu believes that Vietnam's heavy dependence on the US market is a risk. However, decisions to impose tariffs do not only come from trade surplus data, but also from other issues such as US-China competition or immigration with Mexico. Therefore, this expert expects that the US will probably not impose additional tariffs on Vietnam.
Vietnam still has a lot of room for growth from free trade agreements (FTAs), along with good geopolitical advantages, being close to China - the world's second largest economy, favorable for trade. 
In addition, some global challenges such as geopolitical conflicts with the Russia-Ukraine wars, the Middle East, or the new government in Syria... will create global fluctuations, which can negatively impact an open economy like Vietnam.
Despite facing many challenges, Mr. Hoang Xuan Trung, Head of Corporate Banking (Citi Bank Vietnam) said that Vietnam still has a lot of room for growth from free trade agreements (FTAs), along with good geopolitical advantages, with a close distance to China - the second largest economy in the world, favorable for trade connections and production shifts. The increased spending factor also greatly supports economic growth.
Survey data from NielsenIQ Vietnam shows that about 35% of respondents believe that economic growth will be over 6.5%, 45% believe that growth will be between 5.5-6.5%. According to Ms. Dang Thuy Ha, Director of Consumer Behavior Research at NielsenIQ Vietnam, bright spots in import-export, FDI investment, and public investment will further promote consumer behavior in Vietnam.
Opportunities from investment channels
In 2025, with trends and catalysts such as GDP prospects, import and export, market upgrade stories, etc., investors can expect the stock market to be more positive. According to Mr. Le Duc Khanh, Director of Analysis at VPS Securities Company, this is a good time to buy and there are also many opportunities for short-term trading.
“We do not expect a modest increase of 10-12%, but even higher. Investors can focus on accumulating high-quality stocks, priority stocks with positive business results,” Mr. Khanh emphasized.
Mr. Nguyen Viet Duc, Digital Business Director (VPBankS), said that VPbankS also has positive confidence in the stock market in 2025, with cash flow returning to a more vibrant level. Of which, the four groups of stocks expected are energy, oil and gas, real estate, retail and banking.
The market valuation is quite reasonable for long-term investment, with the P/E valuation of the Vietnamese market more attractive thanks to the growth story, Mr. Le Quang Hung, Director of Investment Analysis at Techcom Capital, said that the proportion in investment is not only stocks, but can also be allocated to assets related to fixed income such as bonds or deposits, deposit certificates. New policies and new laws have introduced many regulations related to the bond market, increasing transparency, protecting investors is important for the bond market to develop sustainably, gradually regaining the trust of investors.
New asset classes such as digital currencies are also a popular investment channel today. With recent fluctuations in the digital currency market, the proportion of holdings allocated to bitcoin or other digital currencies, especially among young people, shows that the world is gradually accepting digital currencies as an asset class to diversify investment portfolios.
Source: https://baodautu.vn/co-hoi-dau-tu-nam-2025-giua-cac-bien-so-lon-d232536.html
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