Experts analyze China and Philippines' "move" in the face of rising tensions in the East Sea

Escalating tensions in the East Sea is not in the interests of China or the Philippines, and the two countries even face many geopolitical risks.

Tensions between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea continue to rise. (Source: AP)

In an analysis published in the South China Morning Post on May 28, Professor Richard Javad Heydarian (a political analyst - teaching at La Salle University, Philippines, who has experience in researching the East Sea) assessed the tension between the Philippines and China in the East Sea, and made comments on the policies of both countries in the current situation. The World & Vietnam Newspaper translated the analysis.

The pressure is mounting

Recently, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos stressed that increasing tensions in the South China Sea is “the last thing we want.” When asked if Manila would adopt tactics such as water cannons used by China, Mr. Marcos said that using water cannons would increase tensions in the South China Sea and dismissed the idea.

In recent months, Chinese maritime forces have repeatedly fired water cannons at Philippine forces patrolling and resupplying in the South China Sea, with Manila facing growing pressure to take stronger countermeasures.

To bolster its position, the Philippines has joined an emerging alliance called the “Squad” with the United States, Australia and Japan to counter China. The Philippines has expanded the scope of its annual military exercises with Western allies.

However, there are also opinions that the Philippines' tilt toward the US could endanger Manila's strategic autonomy and make China more assertive, as well as some countries in the region fear a "new Cold War" situation.

For China, its actions in the South China Sea will have a major impact on its reputation as a responsible actor in the Indo-Pacific, thereby accelerating the expansion of the US presence in the Philippines. More worryingly, Beijing and Washington could spark conflict in this vital waterway.

In a worse case scenario, uncontrolled escalation of tensions could lead to mutual losses, especially when parties are trying to gain advantage and fail to peacefully manage the complex conflicts. It is time for the Philippines and China to strive for peaceful resolution of disputes, instead of relying on military might and diplomatic intransigence.

Peaceful resolution of disputes, avoiding miscalculation

It is easy to see the troubled state of Philippine-China relations. Amid escalating maritime disputes, diplomatic channels are being shut down.

China recently made public for the first time what it calls an unwritten 2016 agreement with the Philippines on access to Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea. Specifically, in a statement posted on the website of the Chinese Embassy in Manila on May 2, the Chinese Embassy mentioned the “special temporary agreement” between the two countries that was agreed to by then-Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte during his visit to Beijing in 2016.

Amid the diplomatic deadlock, the Marcos administration is pushing for closer security cooperation with traditional allies. Last month, Marcos attended a trilateral summit with his Japanese and American counterparts at the White House.

This month, Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro met with defense leaders from Australia, Japan, and the United States in Hawaii. In the coming months, the four sides will enhance naval interoperability and conduct regular joint patrols in the South China Sea.

The Philippine defense establishment is also pushing for expanded security cooperation, including visiting forces agreements with Japan and France.

While defensive in nature, this approach could also undermine the Philippines’ strategic autonomy. Not only that, the US itself has other major foreign policy concerns such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the situation in the Middle East and the upcoming US election, in which it is still uncertain who will occupy the White House.

Moreover, while Japan has a “global partnership” with the United States, it also faces economic and demographic stagnation and is unlikely to provide strong support to the Philippines. For Australia, the controversy surrounding its nuclear-powered submarine project with Washington and London is also something Manila needs to keep in mind.

However, maintaining the current status quo also poses many risks, increasing international concerns, increasing the risk of clashes and collisions at sea, and very likely creating an armed confrontation in the East Sea.

Overall, it is clear that China needs to reconsider its approach to the Philippines in order to reduce tensions and achieve peaceful resolutions of disputes. For its part, the Marcos administration should ensure that clear channels for dialogue with China are maintained, enhance strategic autonomy, and actively pursue a stable and inclusive regional order with ASEAN.

Source: https://baoquocte.vn/chuyen-gia-phan-tich-nuoc-co-cua-trung-quoc-va-philippines-truoc-cang-thang-gia-tang-tai-bien-dong-272865.html