Dr. Andrey Evseenko of the Russian Academy of Sciences predicts the future of Russia-US relations under US President Donald Trump.
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| Joint press conference between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin after the Russia-US summit in Helsinki, Finland in 2018. (Source: AP) |
Dr. Andrey Evseenko, a leading American researcher and deputy director of the Institute of the United States and Canada at the Russian Academy of Sciences, gave his views on the future of Russia-US relations after the 47th President of the United States, Donald Trump, was revealed. Trump is said to have a tough stance on Ukraine and is somewhat softer on Russia than the administration of President Joe Biden.
Role in conflict de-escalation
Overall, Evseenko points out that Russia-US relations are in the deepest crisis since the Cold War. It can be said that the relationship has almost hit rock bottom and is only missing the step of severing diplomatic relations, a possibility that Evseenko calls difficult but not ruled out.
According to Dr. Evseenko, Russia has always understood very well, and especially now, with Mr. Trump's election, the possibility of extending the Strategic Offensive Arms Reduction Treaty (START 3) is likely to close. This means that the world is still on the brink of an arms race because there is no de-escalation mechanism in the Russia-US or Russia-North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) relations.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, a particularly sensitive issue in the current bilateral relationship that is being hotly discussed due to Mr. Trump's declaration of "ending the war in 24 hours", expert Evseenko commented that the plan to establish a demilitarized zone as well as guarantee Ukraine's neutrality announced by Mr. JDVance, Mr. Trump's deputy, has no practical meaning. Because this plan is not in line with the interests of both Ukraine and Russia. Therefore, Russia does not expect the possibility of the US acting as a mediator or taking any other steps in support of Russia.
According to this expert, the US support for Ukraine is likely to differ only in quantity, category and duration of provision compared to the current president's time, but not to stop providing aid completely. The reason for this depends not only on the views of each US president, but also on the interests of the country's military industrial complex.
Regarding Russia, Mr. Evseenko affirmed that the time of the previous Republican President - George W. Bush - will be the same during the time of Mr. Trump.
Dr. Eveseenko acknowledged that one could say that there have been no wars under Trump, but the conflicts that have occurred have not ended to this day. Therefore, Dr. Evseenko personally does not exaggerate the role of the incoming White House owner in de-escalating conflicts.
Regarding Europe, expert Eveseenko believes that the US President-elect will still use a harsh tone regarding trade policy and relations with China.
However, now, unlike Trump’s previous presidency, Europe will prevent and stop Trump’s “anti-NATO” rhetoric or the “divorce” between the US and NATO. Europe understands what Trump wants and is ready to respond. The US wants Europe to increase its defense budget and Europe has increased it.
In addition, NATO now has new members in Northern Europe. Therefore, expert Evseenko believes that Europe will continue to be a place for the US to escalate tensions, rather than to de-escalate conflicts.
Barriers in Russia-US relations
According to Dr. Evseenko, in the future, China, not Russia, will be the “number one opponent” of the US. He affirmed that the US and China will have new spirals of trade war, new spirals of pressure on US European allies to force them to stop trade and especially technology relations with China. Sanctions are still the most popular tool in Mr. Trump’s foreign policy with China, Russia, Iran, etc.
Expert Evseenko believes that it is not necessary to predict anything specific about the US policy towards Russia in the future. He points out that if Democratic candidate Kamala Harris wins the election, there will still be dialogue between Russia and the US on offensive arms control and strategic security assurance, but with Republican Mr. Trump, there will be no dialogue at all.
Because in the Democratic Party there are still voices against the arms race, against the development of nuclear weapons, there are still people who may want dialogue, while the Republican Party is represented by voices like Mr. Marshall Billingslea (Special Presidential Envoy for Arms Control in Mr. Trump's first term).
Of course, in the upcoming Trump administration, NATO relations will be reviewed in a way that puts more responsibility on European allies for ensuring security in Europe as well as containing Russia.
Regarding sanctions, the deputy director of the Institute for the United States and Canada does not expect any relaxation soon, except in areas where the US is harmed, for example, the US has withdrawn sanctions on Russian aluminum when US businesses were harmed by this ban.
Russian experts emphasize that for the US President in the next two years, the domestic agenda is the top priority.
In general, regarding the barriers in Russia-US relations, expert Evseenko believes that it is not the conflict in Ukraine at all, but the fundamental lack of trust related to accusations of interference in each other's internal affairs.
Mr. Evseenko concluded that no matter who the new US president is, without trust there can be no dialogue because this is still a characteristic of the relationship between these two powers.
Source: https://baoquocte.vn/chuyen-gia-nga-ly-giai-vi-sao-moscow-khong-man-ma-voi-chien-thang-cua-ong-trump-292875.html
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