Expert: Stock market in 2025 will be 'bright'

2025 is predicted to be a volatile year for the Vietnamese stock market, however, experts still point out clear bright spots in the coming year.

Mr. Nguyen The Minh, Director of Research and Development of Individual Clients, Yuanta Securities Vietnam, commented that normally, according to the cycle, the first month of the year is the month of increase in the stock market. However, the growth rate in January 2025 was not as expected, because investors were still cautiously assessing the situation when the world was forecast to have many fluctuations. Therefore, the stock market in the first months of 2025 still has a lot of room for growth.

Notably, Mr. Minh pointed out some bright spots in the market. That is, the USD is showing signs of slowing down; global commodity prices are on an upward trend, supporting energy and basic materials stocks; US stock indexes have slowed down their decline.

“The three factors mentioned above show bright signals for the domestic stock market in the first months of 2025. Therefore, in my opinion, the possibility of recovery and increase in points in February and March is very feasible ,” Mr. Minh said.

Experts say the stock market in 2025 will have many bright spots. (Illustration photo)

Meanwhile, Mr. Dang Tran Phuc, Chairman of the Board of Directors of AzFin Vietnam Joint Stock Company, said that the stock market is being priced attractively due to the good growth in the fourth quarter business results of enterprises. And this is the time for investors to buy.

Mr. Phan Manh Ha, Business Director of VnDirect Securities Company, commented that the stock market in 2025 is facing many volatile factors, from market cycles to macroeconomic events and international politics. In that context, making reasonable investment decisions requires thorough analysis and an appropriate strategy.

In the international market or in Vietnam, the cyclical nature is always clear. Specifically, the cyclical nature of the domestic market is often reflected in the upward momentum of some groups of stocks in the first quarter of the year. Specifically, the infrastructure sector with investors' expectations of public investment plans and macroeconomic indicators. In addition, the oil and gas group with stories related to the VND/USD exchange rate and listed companies with increased USD revenue at the beginning of the year.

In addition, consumer and retail stocks are also often noticed by investors, because companies (such as pharmaceuticals and retail) often have the most positive growth in the fourth quarter of the previous year and the Lunar New Year period, which is the beginning of the following year. In addition, mid- and small-cap stocks also tend to increase in the first half of the year.

VnDirect's research team also believes that market profits will maintain double-digit positive growth in 2025, even though the VN-Index had difficult sessions at the beginning of the year.

The analysis team of Vietcombank Securities Company (VCBS) commented that the trend of loosening monetary policy in the world, room for domestic fiscal easing to create favorable conditions for growth, and the Government's drastic moves in reforming the legal framework will have a positive impact on investor sentiment.

In addition, Vietnam has been gradually showing a strong shift in its efforts to increase economic growth, with its GDP in 2024 topping the ASEAN region, bringing great expectations for 2025. Along with that is the prospect of upgrading the market from frontier to emerging when Vietnam has completed 7/9 FTSE upgrade criteria.

“ The overall market profit will continue to grow in 2025, at 12%, driven by banking and real estate. In the base case scenario, the VN-Index is forecast to reach 1,555 points. In the optimistic scenario, the index could reach 1,663 points with the expectation of market upgrade ,” VCBS experts forecast.

Meanwhile, experts from KB Securities Vietnam (KBSV) expect the VN-Index to reach 1,460 points. The driving force comes from the forecast that Vietnam's macro foundation will be stable in terms of exchange rates (USD/VND will increase by 1-2%), interest rates in the economy will remain low compared to history (with deposit interest rates increasing slightly by 0.3-0.5%, while lending interest rates will remain the same or increase slightly) and Vietnam will be upgraded to a market according to FTSE.

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