Stocks have just experienced the trading week with the lowest liquidity since May 2023. Entering the new week, supportive factors have not appeared, but exchange rate risks are still 'lurking' as the USD index continues to increase.
Cash flow into stocks is sluggish as Tet approaches - Photo: QUANG DINH
Talking to Tuoi Tre Online , experts said that they have not seen any new positive factors, while the exchange rate pressure is still hot and foreign investors maintain strong net selling. On the morning of January 13, the USD index (DXY) continued to hit a peak when approaching the 110 point mark.
VN-Index may fall back to 1,200 points
• Mr. Vu Duy Khanh, Director of Analysis at Smart Invest Securities:
- Regarding the USD index, this year may reach the peak of the 10-year cycle. However, the pressure in the first half of the year will be greater and cool down in the second half of the year. In the short term, after President Donald Trump takes office, it may decrease a little.
For the stock market, in the short term, after the short-term double-top model, the current support zone of VN-Index is 1,220 - 1,230 points.
The medium-term support zone is 1,185 - 1,200 points, which will be a stronger support zone. In the long term, from around March 2025 onwards, there may be a tendency to accelerate better.
As Tet approaches, liquidity will remain low and the general trend will be downward due to seasonal factors. Regarding risks this week, the expiration of VN30 futures contracts and the restructuring of VN30 funds will be events that investors will pay attention to.
This group is self-trading and holding a position of selling futures contracts and funds tend to sell the banking group when restructuring. Therefore, basically we have downward pressure this week.
Besides the "lurking" risks, regarding the bright spots of the market, I think that industries and cyclical stocks have all decreased in rotation and decreased to oversold areas. Basically, the demand for bottom-probing will increase. Overall, the risk factors and bright spots can still be balanced.
Market sentiment remains cautious, investors take early Tet holiday
* Mr. Dinh Quang Hinh, head of macro and market strategy department, VNDirect Securities:
- The Vietnamese stock market experienced a gloomy trading week with the VN-Index falling sharply in the last session of the week, falling below the support level of 1,240 points.
Market sentiment is cautious as US government bond yields continue to rise above 4.7%, and the DXY index returns to its old peak above 109, showing that concerns about US tariff policies have not cooled down.
Domestically, the market entered a "supportive information depression" and many investors "took an early Tet holiday" which weakened cash flow.
The sharp decline in market liquidity shows that both supply and demand are cautious and waiting rather than actively participating in transactions.
This will somewhat limit the market momentum, both downward and upward.
Going into the next trading week, investors should stop "selling off" when the market has retreated to near the strong support zone of 1,200-1,220 points.
Need to patiently observe market supply and demand in the support zone, if there is a technical recovery, consider reducing margin and stock ratio to a safe threshold to manage portfolio risk.
Exchange rate pressure in 2025 will not be too stressful
* Mr. Tran Duc Anh - Director of KBSV:
- We forecast that the exchange rate pressure in 2025 will not be too tense with USD/VND increasing by about 1-2% thanks to the DXY index tending to move sideways, increasing slightly, combined with foreign currency sources from trade surplus and FDI capital expected to remain well maintained.
Reality also shows that in Mr. Trump's first term, contrary to initial concerns, 2017 was a relatively favorable year for Vietnam in managing the exchange rate thanks to the sharp decline of the USD.
While we do not expect history to repeat itself and the DXY to plunge sharply in 2025, some similarities between the two periods and other factors are supporting the idea that the strong rally in 2024 will be limited next year.
However, the exchange rate pressure will still be high in the first half of 2025 at some point when Mr. Trump's tax policies begin to be announced, while some other factors supporting the USD are still having a strong impact.
It is likely that the State Bank will increase the USD selling price during this period, along with raising the central exchange rate so that the exchange rate fluctuates within a new, higher range in 2025.
Source: https://tuoitre.vn/chung-khoan-sat-tet-dong-tien-phan-tan-nhan-dien-rui-ro-tuan-moi-20250113103144424.htm
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