Qatar The four strongest teams in Asia will clash in the quarter-finals of the 2023 Asian Cup, when Japan meets Iran, and South Korea plays Australia.
The Round of 16 ended on January 31, determining the eight teams in the quarterfinals: Tajikistan, Jordan, Australia, South Korea, Iran, Japan, Qatar and Uzbekistan. Of these, Tajikistan is the "dark horse" as it is not ranked in the FIFA Top 100 and is participating in the tournament for the first time, but has reached the quarterfinals. Jordan has never reached the semi-finals, Uzbekistan's highest position is fourth, and the remaining five teams have all won the championship.
Striker Mehdi Taremi celebrates scoring against Syria in the round of 16 at Abdullah bin Khalifa Stadium, helping Iran become the last team to advance in the first round, but he will be suspended for the quarter-finals of the 2023 Asian Cup. Photo: AP
Japan-Iran and South Korea-Australia are both ranked in the FIFA Top 25, with world-class talent, and they will also meet at the stadiums that just hosted the 2022 World Cup. Hosts Qatar are the only team to have won all four of their opening matches, but will face a tough opponent in Uzbekistan. The other match is perhaps the most lopsided, with Jordan being rated much higher than Tajikistan.
Japan and Iran are the strongest in Asia, if according to the FIFA rankings - 17th and 21st. Their head-to-head record is also balanced, with six wins, six draws and six losses for each team. However, in the last seven matches, Iran has only won once against Japan. Most recently, Hajime Moriyasu's team also crushed Iran 3-0 in the semi-finals of the 2019 Asian Cup. Iran's squad has not changed much compared to the match five years ago, while Japan has changed about half of its squad.
The match between South Korea and Australia is also evenly matched, with the head-to-head record only slightly in favour of the Oceanian representative, with 12 wins, 10 draws and 11 losses. The results between the two teams in their last six matches are also similar, with each team winning two, drawing two and losing two. However, Son Heung-min and his teammates will want to get revenge on Australia after their defeat in the 2015 Asian Cup final.
The match between Qatar and Uzbekistan is a bit more different, with the host team being 10 places higher in FIFA rankings. However, in terms of Elo - an index that does not take into account the importance of the match - Uzbekistan is 16 places higher than Qatar. This is reflected in the head-to-head statistics, as the Central Asian representative has won nine, drawn two and lost only three matches against the reigning Asian Cup champions.
Jordan, who are 19 places above Tajikistan in the FIFA rankings and 35 places above them in the Elo rankings, impressed in the round of 16 by eliminating Iraq with two goals in the second half. Tajikistan also caused a stir by beating UAE on penalties. According to Opta 's supercomputer, Jordan have a 55% chance of progressing, compared to their opponents' 45%, but either way, one team will make history.
According to Opta , Japan has the best chance of reaching the semi-finals, with a rate of 67%, more than double Iran's ability. Qatar has a 62% chance of going through, while Australia is slightly better than Korea with a probability of reaching the Top 4 at 53%. Opta is the world's number one football statistics company, specializing in providing data for top leagues.
The four quarter-final matches will take place on February 2 and 3. If they reach the semi-finals, Japan will face either Qatar or Uzbekistan. Moriyasu's team's chances of winning the tournament are still the highest, at 25%.
Hoang An
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