Record-breaking harvest

Preliminary statistics from the General Department of Customs show that coffee exports in October 2024 are estimated at 50,000 tons, worth 292.7 million USD; bringing the total coffee volume in the first 10 months of this year to nearly 1.2 million tons, earning 4.6 billion USD. Although the volume of coffee exports decreased by 10.8%, the value skyrocketed by 40.1% compared to the same period in 2023.

The average export price of coffee in the first 10 months is estimated at 3,981 USD/ton, up 57% over the same period in 2023. This is a record high price in the past 30 years since Vietnamese coffee entered the world market.

According to the report on coffee export turnover in the 2023-2024 crop year (from October 2023 to October 2024) of the Vietnam Coffee - Cocoa Association (VICOFA), our country exported about 1.46 million tons of coffee, down more than 12.1% compared to the previous crop year.

However, the value still increased sharply by 33% due to the historical peak of coffee prices. Thanks to that, coffee exports last crop brought in more than 5.4 billion USD - an unprecedented high.

Mr. Do Ha Nam - Vice President of VICOFA, commented that 2024 will be very special for this industry. For the first time, Vietnamese coffee prices will be the highest in the world. The export price of Robusta coffee (Vietnam's coffee with the highest output in the world) is higher than the price of Arabica coffee.

Businesses and experts also believe that 2024 is a "miracle year" for the Vietnamese coffee industry, with prices so high that they are "unthinkable even in dreams."

In fact, Vietnam's coffee export prices have been increasing steadily since the beginning of the year. Specifically, in January, this bitter bean of our country had an export price of only 3,054 USD/ton, then by October it had jumped to 5,855 USD/ton. That means in just 10 months, the price of this item has increased by 91.7%.

Similarly, the price of green coffee beans in the domestic market at the end of October last year fluctuated from only 58-59 million VND/ton, by November 8 it had increased to 105-106 million VND/ton. At the end of April, the price of coffee even reached a historical peak of 131 million VND/ton.

At this price, in the coffee capital of the Central Highlands, people also compare coffee trees to "ATMs", helping people "earn billions".

In addition to records in prices and export turnover, Vietnamese coffee is increasingly showing its important role in world market demand. Accordingly, the decline in our country's coffee output has a strong impact on world price trends.

Vietnamese coffee is entering a new harvest season. VICOFA forecasts that coffee exports will recover in the final months of the year due to increased supply and demand at the end of the year.

EUDR takes effect, Vietnamese coffee prices will increase sharply

However, the Vietnamese coffee industry is awaiting a historic decision regarding the European Deforestation Regulation (EUDR).

Our country's coffee has been exported to over 80 countries and territories. Of which, the European market (EU) accounts for about 38% of Vietnam's total annual coffee exports.

The EU is currently the world's largest coffee importer, accounting for about 33-35% of the global market share. The market's coffee consumption is expected to reach nearly $48 billion in 2024 and will increase to over $58 billion in 2029. Therefore, any major policy on imported goods will immediately impact coffee price movements.

W-coffee.jpg
Complying with EUDR, Vietnamese coffee benefits in price when the EU implements this regulation. Photo: Nguyen Hue

Under the EUDR roadmap, from December 30, 2024, companies will not be able to export certain agricultural products (including coffee) to the EU market if they cannot prove that their products are not related to deforestation.

Therefore, as soon as the EU issued new regulations related to coffee imports, domestic and international markets raised concerns about the changing supply-demand situation. This was quickly reflected in coffee price developments in 2024.

EU countries have been racing to import coffee to ensure supply before December 30. Along with the pressure of reduced coffee production in many producing countries, causing the price of this commodity to skyrocket globally, the market has fallen into a state of local supply-demand imbalance.

In October, the European Commission (EC) proposed to postpone the implementation of the EUDR by one year and quickly received consensus from the EU Council (EUCO), but faced opposition from environmental organizations. The final results of the EUDR roadmap will be voted on by the European Parliament on November 13-14.

If the EUDR maintains its old path, in the short term, importing countries will increase purchases in the remaining months of 2024, causing demand for coffee in the market to skyrocket. This will cause a situation where supply is smaller than demand, creating important support for coffee prices in the last two months of the year.

In case the EU decides to postpone the implementation of the EUDR, the coffee supply and demand in the market will temporarily stabilize, along with the additional supply from coffee harvested in the 2024-2025 crop year in Vietnam, the world coffee price will likely only stay below 4,700 USD/ton. Similarly, the domestic coffee price will only fluctuate between 100,000-110,000 VND/kg.

Mr. Do Ha Nam said that Vietnam is the first country and very active in implementing EUDR. Up to now, most of our country's export enterprises are ready to export coffee that meets EUDR as soon as this regulation is implemented.

In recent months, many European importers have focused on buying Vietnamese coffee as the EUDR implementation deadline approaches. Because Vietnam is almost the only coffee source at this time that can help them ensure the EUDR regulations in a certain way, thereby pushing Vietnamese coffee prices to the highest level in the world.

If EUDR is implemented immediately, Vietnamese coffee will benefit greatly in price because our country will start a new harvest season, with an export output of more than 1 million tons, VICOFA leaders emphasized.

Record high price, Vietnam 'embraces' 4 billion USD from 'bitter-tasting' nuts The price of the nuts that Vietnam is the leading exporter of has increased sharply, reaching a historical record, helping to bring in more than 4 billion USD. Revenue is expected to increase sharply when coming here, the growing areas are about to harvest millions of tons.