ANTD.VN - The Central Institute for Economic Research (CIEM, Ministry of Planning and Investment) forecasts the highest GDP growth this year at 6.46%, lower than the target set by the National Assembly (6.5%). This growth rate is expected to be achieved when exports decrease and inflation is controlled below 4.5%.
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The company's production and business activities are gradually improving. |
Based on the economic growth results in the first 6 months of 2023 and forecasts for the last 6 months of the year, CIEM has just proposed 3 economic growth scenarios. Specifically:
Scenario 1: Assuming that global economic factors continue to be consistent with the assessments of international organizations and Vietnam maintains similar policy efforts as in the second half of 2021-2022; GDP growth is forecast to reach 5.34% in 2023. Exports for the whole year of 2023 will decrease by 5.64%. The average CPI for the whole year of 2023 will increase by 3.43%. The trade balance will reach a surplus of 9.1 billion USD.
Scenario 2 maintains most of the assumptions in scenario 1 related to the world economic factor, but with some adjustments on more positive monetary and fiscal easing in Vietnam. Accordingly, GDP growth is forecast at 5.72% in 2023. Exports for the whole year of 2023 decreased by 3.66%. The average CPI for the whole year of 2023 increased by 3.87%. The trade balance reached a surplus of 10.3 billion USD.
Scenario 3 assumes that the world economic context has some more positive changes (growth recovers, supply chain disruptions have significantly decreased, inflation in the US has decreased, weather is more favorable, etc.) and drastic reforms and administration in Vietnam, thereby helping to achieve maximum results in disbursement/absorption of public investment and credit, improve the business environment and labor productivity, promote and implement investment activities in a more effective direction; GDP growth is forecast at 6.46% in 2023. Exports for the whole year of 2023 decrease by 2.17%. The average CPI for the whole year of 2023 increases by 4.39%. The trade balance reaches a surplus of 6.8 billion USD.
According to CIEM, although still far from the set target, Vietnam's economic growth has improved between quarters, reaching 3.28% in the first quarter of 2023 and 4.14% in the second quarter of 2023. In the first six months of 2023, the growth rate reached 3.72%.
Practices in 2020-2022 have shown that Vietnam has experienced many times a decline in growth in the first 1-2 quarters of the year, but then recovered strongly in the last months of the year.
Therefore, CIEM believes that the difficult context in the first months of 2023 is also "positive pressure" for the Government, ministries, branches and localities of Vietnam to be more drastic in management and reform in the coming time.
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