ANTD.VN - The "exceptionally high" electricity supply scenario is assessed to meet the double-digit growth needs of the economy and have long-term reserves.
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There will be more power projects under construction to meet electricity demand in the coming years. |
Forecasting electricity demand related to the National Power Development Plan for the period 2021-2030, with a vision to 2050 (Power Plan VIII), Dr. Nguyen Ngoc Hung - Head of Energy Economics Department, Institute of Energy (Ministry of Industry and Trade) said that in the period 2016-2024, the national commercial electricity output increased 1.7 times from about 158 billion kWh to about 276 billion kWh with an average rate of about 7.2%/year.
Accordingly, the growth rate in 2021-2024 will reach about 7.1%/year, lower than the 2016-2020 period of about 8%/year.
In particular, the North has a strong tendency to increase load, especially industrial load and residential consumption. The processing and manufacturing industry has the highest electricity intensity.
Dr. Nguyen Ngoc Hung also proposed 4 specific electricity demand scenarios: Low scenario; Base scenario; High scenario; Special high scenario.
Notably, in the special high scenario, the growth rate of commercial electricity from 2026-2030: 12.8%/year; 2031-2040: 8.6%/year; 2041-2050: 2.8%/year. Accordingly, the difference with the forecast of the basic scenario of Power Plan VIII is: In 2030: DTP over 56 billion kWh, Pmax over 10.0 GW; in 2050: commercial electricity over 430 billion kWh, Pmax over 71.5 GW. Electricity intensity in 2030: 51.0 kWh/million VND; in 2050: 19.1 kWh/million VND (a decrease of 4.8%/year)
“This scenario reflects electricity demand in the event that the economy accelerates in the 2026-2030 period and continues to maintain high double-digit growth for a long time. The scenario also ensures reserves for long-term electricity development,” said Dr. Nguyen Ngoc Hung.
Commenting on the adjustment of the 8th Power Plan, Mr. Nguyen Van Duong, researcher of the Power System Development Department (Institute of Energy) said that the planning adjustment process focuses on 3 main steps: Reviewing and updating the legal basis, evaluating the practical operation of the power system, along with forecasting socio-economic growth and electricity demand.
The optimization of the power system is carried out in three stages: determining the optimal power source structure, checking the reliability of power supply and evaluating hourly operations to ensure suitability to the new context, when the proportion of renewable energy is increasing.
One of the key issues is to update the details of renewable energy potential in each locality to effectively exploit national resources. At the same time, the research team emphasized the need for backup plans for wind and solar power to cope with the instability of these energy sources.
Source: https://www.anninhthudo.vn/bo-cong-thuong-dua-ra-kich-ban-cung-ung-dien-cao-dac-biet-post603723.antd
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