French parliamentary elections: Macron and Europe's big gamble

On June 30, French voters went to the polls in the first round of parliamentary elections after President Emmanuel Macron unexpectedly dissolved parliament on June 9 and called for early elections due to the defeat of his centrist Renaissance Party against the far-right National Rally (RN) party in the European Parliament elections, according to AFP news agency.

This parliamentary election is considered the most important election in decades for France as well as for Europe.

Unpredictable results

Voting begins at 8am and runs until 6pm on June 30 (local time), with voters choosing 577 members of parliament from 4,011 candidates. The results will determine which party will be the prime minister and shape the direction of France's next government.

This parliamentary election is a competition between three main political groups: President Macron's coalition (including the Renaissance, MoDem and Horizons parties); the right-wing RN party, and the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) alliance.

French people line up to vote in the first round of the French parliamentary election in Tulle province (France) on June 30.

To win a seat in parliament, a candidate must receive a majority of the vote and the support of at least 25% of voters in the constituency. If no candidate reaches the 25% threshold, candidates with at least 12.5% ​​of voters advance to a second round of voting, which takes place a week later. Usually, a winner is not determined until the second round.

The latest polls show the RN party leading the race with about 35% of the vote, followed by the left-wing alliance with about 25-26% of the vote and Mr Macron's centrist alliance in third with about 19%.

Official election results will be known on July 8, the day after the second round of voting ends. The first-round results are a good predictor of the final outcome but do not necessarily reflect the election outcome. In 2022, for example, Macron’s centrist coalition and the left were neck and neck in the first round of voting, but Macron’s coalition ended up with nearly 250 seats while the left won fewer than 150.

According to experts, socio-economic issues and immigration are the main concerns of French voters when choosing a party. Last week, RN leader Jordan Bardella announced the party's agenda if it wins, including stopping illegal immigration, solving problems related to the cost of living, reducing inflation, reducing the retirement age, and increasing wages.

Meanwhile, the left-wing coalition said it would reverse pension reforms and raise the retirement age that President Macron had approved, and increase public spending if it won.

What the election means for France and Europe

Entrance to a polling station for the first round of French parliamentary elections in Pas-de-Calais province (France) on June 30.

The results of the parliamentary elections could lead to uncertainty in French politics for the remaining three years of President Macron's term. Currently, Mr. Macron's outgoing ruling coalition holds 245 seats in the National Assembly and needs to gain more support to pass laws to gain a majority.

If the upcoming election results give the RN a majority, this would mean Mr Macron would have to appoint a prime minister and cabinet from the opposition party, making it difficult for the president to pass policy.

The French Constitution divides responsibilities between the president and the prime minister. Accordingly, the president is in charge of foreign affairs, while the prime minister manages domestic affairs and defense.

Cohabitation between a president and prime minister from different parties can make it difficult to enforce laws and pass budgets, as both can block each other’s decisions. For example, Mr Macron could veto laws passed by the opposition-dominated parliament, while the opposition government could not implement some of the president’s decrees.

“The election will mark the beginning of a new way of governing and the end of President Macron’s agenda,” said Emmanuel Dupuy, president of the Institute for Security Studies and European Perspectives (a France-based think tank on diplomacy and political analysis).

This parliamentary election is also expected to have an impact on Europe because France is a leading country in the European Union (EU). For the past few decades, France and Germany have led the bloc's policy-making process.

According to CBS News , as Germany has become increasingly entangled in domestic problems in recent years, France has taken on more of the alliance's foreign affairs responsibilities on its own. President Macron sees France's role in international politics as inevitable and has repeatedly expressed his desire to speak up as the EU's leading country.

Douglas Webber, Professor of Political Science at INSEAD Business School (France), believes that Europe has reason to be concerned about the election in France, because the “coexistence” between the president and the opposition brings “uncertain prospects or can cause very negative consequences for the role of France and Paris's participation in the EU”.

Mr Webber predicted the uncertainty could last until the French presidential election in 2027.

Analysts predict that some of Mr. Macron's policies in the EU such as adding more members to the alliance, providing aid to Ukraine in its war with Russia, etc., may be obstructed by the opposition.

In addition, some of the opposition's economic and social policies may not fit within the current framework of EU law. There are concerns that the new government in France will follow the example of Hungary and the Netherlands by opting out of some European policies, including those on immigration and defence procurement.

According to the Council on Foreign Relations magazine, these issues are really worrying for the EU as the bloc prepares to enter the process of power transfer this fall. The EU will need strong support from key member states, especially France, to address the upcoming challenges.

Macron's gamble is embarrassing for the Biden administration

Poitico newspaper on June 29 quoted a source from a US official that President Macron informed the administration of US President Joe Biden before dissolving the French parliament and calling for a general election.

Officials said the US side was initially surprised but later became confused by Mr Macron's decision.

Washington has so far kept a low profile on the French parliamentary elections.

Officials say there is concern in the US that Mr Macron’s move could have repercussions far beyond France, weakening the EU and posing further challenges to Paris’s allies.

The White House believes the election's immediate impact on the Western allies' shared priorities will be "limited," but is concerned about French aid to Ukraine, officials said.

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