This is considered the most dramatic election season in modern American history with the results predicted to be very close between the two candidates. This year's US Presidential election has seen a surge in early voting, with early voting rates breaking records in swing states like Georgia and North Carolina.
The candidate has the advantage
At the time after Vice President Kamala Harris ran for election, voter support for Ms. Harris seemed to be slightly higher than Mr. Trump due to the excitement within the Democratic Party. However, at present, the two candidates are competing very closely in recent surveys.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll released on October 22 showed that Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump by 3 points nationwide. According to the results, Harris has 46% support and Trump has 43%. The Democratic candidate's lead is unchanged from last week's poll, in which Harris had 45% support compared to 42% for the Republican candidate.
The poll also found that immigration, the economy and threats to democracy are top concerns for potential voters. Former President Trump leads on immigration and the economy, 48% to 35%, and 46% to 38%, respectively, over Harris. The current Vice President leads on threats to democracy as well as health care and abortion, 42% to 35%.
Immigration is the top issue voters want the winner to focus on in his first 100 days in the Oval Office, with 35% saying so. Other concerns include income inequality, at 11%, and taxes and health care, at 10%. About 70% of registered voters said the cost of living is headed in the wrong direction, while 65% said the same about immigration and 60% said the economy.
Meanwhile, this past weekend, Mr. Trump surpassed Ms. Harris in The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s election forecast for the first time, with the model showing the Republican candidate had a 52% chance of winning compared to Ms. Harris’s 48%.
According to a Morning Consult poll, Vice President Harris leads former President Trump by 4 percentage points (50% to 46%) among likely voters less than two weeks before Election Day. Harris also leads among independents, 47% to 43%. The poll shows that both candidates have strong support from party-based voters.
Polls show that this year's race to the White House is also very unpredictable, with two candidates in a fierce race and each having advantages in specific areas that voters care about.
Early voting turnout hits record high
Forty-seven states, as well as the District of Columbia, offer early voting and mail-in voting to all registered voters, and each state determines its own early voting dates. According to statistics from the University of Florida, the number of early voters in the United States is increasing rapidly every day. As of now, 62.6 million people have registered to vote early, either in person or by mail.
There are now more than 28 million early voters, including more than 12 million in-person voters and more than 16 million by mail. The number of early voters this year is much higher than in 2020, and this can be understood as the Covid-19 pandemic was taking place in 2020, so Americans avoided crowded places. Another difference in the issue of early voting this year is that the number of Republican voters participating in early voting has increased significantly compared to previous years, possibly due to the call from presidential candidate Donald Trump.
The trend represents a reversal in Republican views on voting compared to the 2020 election season. The Covid-19 pandemic then affected the way Americans cast ballots. States allowed voters to vote absentee and by mail, but Mr. Trump criticized anything other than in-person voting. The former president claimed that mail-in voting “creates chaos” and would lead to “interference from foreign countries,” without providing evidence, and many of his supporters believed him. Mr. Trump went on to lose to Democratic challenger Joe Biden, thanks to overwhelming numbers of Democrats voting early and by mail.
Meanwhile, Democrats have been encouraging voters to vote early for years, which makes them less dependent on Election Day, where personal schedules, weather or health issues can prevent voters from getting to the polls.
Early voting also allows campaigns to use their resources more efficiently, since they only need to target voters who have not yet voted. As a result, many Republicans have pushed Trump to change his stance on early and mail-in voting to level the playing field with Democrats.
The former president began to change his mind when he voted early in the Florida primary in August. The Republican National Committee, co-chaired by Trump’s daughter-in-law Lara Trump, has poured resources into programs to encourage Republicans to vote early.
According to preliminary polls, Vice President Kamala Harris currently leads former President Donald Trump among early voters, but overall that lead is unlikely to prove who is better.
Early voting has little impact on the race for the White House, but it allows candidates to track who has already voted, allowing them to focus on undecided voters. This increases both candidates’ chances of winning in a tight race that can be decided by just a few votes.
Factors affecting the election
No different from previous elections, this year's election in the US is also quite intense and dramatic, and there are only 2 weeks left until election day while the confrontation between Ms. Kamala Harris and Mr. Donald Trump is still fierce, even in the "battlefield" states that are decisive to the final result.
When it comes to factors that could impact the US presidential election, people often talk about “October surprises”. In fact, the phrase “October surprise” has become an indispensable part of the American political dictionary for nearly 50 years, causing candidates’ campaigns to often fear that unexpected news or crises could change the course and outcome of the race.
These factors typically come in three forms: US diplomatic developments on the international stage, past political scandals exposed in the form of leaks, or serious domestic events, such as natural disasters, pandemics, and criminal investigations. These factors can completely tip the balance between the two candidates.
However, at the present time, contrary to the expectations of the candidates, especially Ms. Harris, the "October surprise" has occurred at an unexpected level, more comprehensively and widely. That has forced both candidates to adjust many campaign tactics to take advantage/adapt as effectively as possible, first of all in the battleground states, because the gap between victory and defeat there may only be a few tens of thousands of votes but will decide the outcome of the entire campaign nationwide.
Beyond the “October surprise,” the ability to address pressing domestic issues and emerging international challenges will be crucial in winning over voters in the final weeks of the campaign. Both Harris and Trump will need to clearly articulate their vision and concrete plans to address the issues voters care about most if they want to win this race.
![[Photo] Magical moment of double five-colored clouds on Ba Den mountain on the day of the Buddha's relic procession](https://vphoto.vietnam.vn/thumb/1200x675/vietnam/resource/IMAGE/2025/5/9/7a710556965c413397f9e38ac9708d2f)
![[Photo] General Secretary To Lam begins official visit to Russia and attends the 80th Anniversary of Victory over Fascism](https://vphoto.vietnam.vn/thumb/1200x675/vietnam/resource/IMAGE/2025/5/8/5d2566d7f67d4a1e9b88bc677831ec9d)
Comment (0)