Selling all kinds of fish and shrimp to the US, China, EU, Vietnam expects to earn 10 billion USD in 2024

Shrimp products are most affected.

Assessing the seafood export market in the first 5 years of 2024, Ms. Le Hang - Communications Director of VASEP said that in the most recent month, May, shrimp was the product most affected by price reduction, so exports decreased by 2.3%, of which white-leg shrimp alone decreased by 7%, black tiger shrimp decreased by 6%. Other products such as fish cakes and surimi were also under pressure to compete on prices, so they decreased by 25% in May and a cumulative decrease of 15% in the first 5 months of the year.

Processing shrimp for export at Minh Phu Group. Photo: Phuong Anh

Shrimp exports in May decreased by 2.3%, pangasius exports in May still increased by nearly 5% thanks to the recovery of the US market, but total exports for the first 5 months of the year only increased slightly by 2%. Total seafood exports in the first 5 months of the year reached 3.55 billion USD, up 5% over the same period in 2023.

Ms. Hang cited that by the end of May, the average price of Vietnamese white-leg shrimp exported to the EU decreased by 4% compared to the previous month, down to 7.1 USD/kg. The export price to China decreased by 2%, down to 6.3 USD/kg. The export price to the UK decreased by 8%, down to 8 USD/kg.

Meanwhile, export prices to Japan and South Korea remained stable at USD 8.5 and USD 7.4 per kg. Only the US market has seen an upward trend in whiteleg shrimp import prices since February 2024. By the end of May, the average price of Vietnamese whiteleg shrimp exported to the US increased by 2% compared to the previous month, reaching USD 10 per kg.

For frozen pangasius fillets for export, the average FOB (free on board) price since the beginning of the year has remained at 2.7 USD. This is a low price that has lasted since September 2023.

By market, by the end of May, the average price of pangasius exported to the EU decreased by 5% compared to the previous month, down to 2.43 USD/kg. The export price to Mexico decreased by 7.4%, down to 2.13 USD/kg. The export price to China decreased by 1%, down to 1.88 USD/kg. The export price to Brazil decreased by 1.5%, down to 2.69 USD/kg. The export price to the UK decreased by 7.2%, down to 2.43 USD/kg.

Regarding pangasius exports, only the US market showed signs of optimism. By the end of May, the average price of pangasius exported to the US increased by 1.7% compared to the previous month, reaching 2.95 USD/kg. This is also the highest price since July 2023.

Notably, according to VASEP experts, other shrimp producing and exporting countries are also affected by the general market impact, causing raw material prices to decrease. For example, the price of raw whiteleg shrimp of all sizes from 50 - 80 pieces/kg in India by June 2024 decreased by nearly 4 - 6% compared to the previous month, down to 2.64 - 3.35 USD/kg.

Although the price of Vietnamese raw shrimp has decreased further, it is still much higher than that of the same type and size of Indian shrimp. Accordingly, the price of 80-count/kg whiteleg shrimp decreased by 16% compared to May, reaching an average of VND85,500/kg (equivalent to USD3.34/kg), still much higher than the price of USD2.64/kg of the same type and size of shrimp from India. The price of the same size whiteleg shrimp from Thailand also decreased by 2%, while that of Ecuador remained low at USD2.3/kg.

Positive signals in the last months of the year

Commenting on the seafood export market in the last 6 months of 2024, according to Ms. Le Hang, the main import markets will have better signals. In particular, the recovery of the US market will orient and positively impact other markets.

By the end of June, Vietnam's seafood exports are estimated to reach 4.4 billion USD, up 6% over the same period in 2023. It is expected that after the second quarter, inventory problems and transportation difficulties will ease, demand will recover and prices will increase again in the third quarter, which is the time of high demand for the year-end holidays.

"The market is more optimistic, domestic production conditions are stable and favorable, we have confidence that exports will reach the 10 billion USD mark this year" - Ms. Le Hang said.

However, VASEP experts are also somewhat concerned about the raw material situation in the second half of the year. Because the price of raw shrimp and pangasius has decreased, farmers are losing money and may abandon their ponds en masse, leading to a shortage of raw materials.

Meanwhile, the shortage of seafood raw materials is even more difficult because of the new regulations in Decree 37 and Decree 38, which were issued in April 2024 and took effect from May 19, 2024. In particular, regulations such as the minimum size of some key exploited and exported species, regulations prohibiting the mixing of domestic and imported raw materials in the same export shipment, regulations requiring 72-hour and 48-hour advance notice for foreign ships and imported container ships... make compliance very difficult. Therefore, the source of raw materials is even more tightened...

Therefore, VASEP's tuna exporting enterprises are worried that the target of 1 billion USD in tuna exports will be difficult to achieve this year due to the current tight raw material bottlenecks.

Source: https://danviet.vn/ban-du-loai-ca-tom-cho-my-trung-quoc-eu-viet-nam-du-thu-10-ty-usd-trong-nam-2024-20240630165416016.htm