(CLO) Forecasting the growth prospects of the real estate market in 2025, economic expert Dr. Nguyen Minh Phong said: The growth momentum in 2024 will create great momentum for the market to break out in the new year.
Dr. Nguyen Minh Phong affirmed that the real estate market outlook in 2025 is shaped on the basis of the integrated economic achievements in 2024 and new opportunities, associated with institutional reforms and fluctuations in the domestic and international general market. Of which, 7 issues stand out.
First, economic growth momentum in 2024, positive outlook in 2025
Overall, the world economy in general and the Vietnamese economy in particular are still in a period of positive recovery. Positive economic growth and expanding FDI attraction are and will continue to boost the demand for housing, offices and commercial real estate projects, helping to increase the value of real estate, creating attractive profits for investors.
Furthermore, Vietnam is undergoing rapid urbanization, especially in major cities such as Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City, and suburban areas. This has led to an increase in demand for housing and other types of real estate such as townhouses, resort real estate, mid- and high-end apartment projects, smart urban areas, and areas with good infrastructure systems.
Dr. Nguyen Minh Phong, economic expert. Source: RT
In addition, controlled inflation and flexible monetary policy will be positive factors, helping to maintain the stability of the real estate market. Interest rates on home loans are forecast to be at a reasonable level, creating favorable conditions for real estate buyers and investors.
Second, industrial real estate with stable supply and rental growth, accompanied by high occupancy rates
Industrial and logistics real estate in 2024 and 2025 continues to be a bright spot in the market. This segment is the focus of attracting foreign investment capital, leading in the number of transactions in 2024 and possibly in 2025.
Market records show that the demand for industrial real estate rental remains high, with steady supply growth from many industrial park projects approved and implemented nationwide. Rental prices are expected to increase by an average of 2-5% per quarter in 2024 in key markets.
Through new regulations, many legal bottlenecks continue to be resolved, creating new momentum for the real estate market. Photo: BTT
The main driving force of this trend comes from foreign direct investment (FDI) flows into manufacturing industries, especially the trend of diversifying supply chains and shifting production away from China.
In addition, with many competitive advantages such as favorable geographical location, stable investment environment and attractive production costs, Vietnam continues to be an attractive destination for investors and businesses worldwide. Efforts to improve the real estate legal framework and infrastructure development are contributing to making the market more and more attractive to international investors.
Therefore, the industrial park real estate market will be a bright spot, opening up great investment opportunities and high profit potential for real estate investment to meet the housing needs of workers, support service areas and commerce in these areas.
Third, the new momentum of the social housing segment
Currently, 644 social housing projects have been implemented nationwide with a scale of 580,109 units, of which 96 projects have been completed, providing 57,652 units; 133 projects are under construction with a scale of 110,217 units and 415 projects have been approved for investment policy, with a scale of 412,240 units.
Both major cities, Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, are accelerating the development of social housing. Specifically, in Hanoi, 69 projects are being implemented with a scale of about 4.17 million square meters of floor space, equivalent to 73,300 apartments.
Meanwhile, Ho Chi Minh City was assigned a target for social housing development in the 2021-2025 period of 2.5 million square meters of floor space, equivalent to 35,000 apartments.
From 2021 to now, the city has completed 5 projects with a scale of 2,377 social housing units and part of a worker accommodation project with 368 units. Currently, the city is constructing 4 projects, with a total scale of 2,874 units.
In addition, 21 enterprises have registered to participate, planning to build 52,000 apartments on self-created land funds. Together with 8,000 apartments from 7 land areas calling for investment and 10,000 apartments from public investment sources, Ho Chi Minh City aims to basically reach 70,000 social housing units by 2030.
Fourth, many large public investment projects have been started and the acceleration of urbanization has created a high spillover momentum in the real estate market.
On December 20, 2024, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh signed and issued Official Dispatch No. 137 on promoting economic growth in 2025.
Accordingly, in 2025, the whole country will focus on prioritizing strong economic growth associated with macroeconomic stability, inflation control, ensuring large balances and high surpluses; accelerating, breaking through, striving for the national GDP growth rate in 2025 to reach over 8% (higher than the target assigned by the National Assembly).
The telegram also requires effective implementation of preferential credit programs, including social housing credit packages. At the same time, synchronously implement solutions to remove difficulties and obstacles in implementing real estate and social housing projects and promote the safe, healthy and sustainable development of the real estate market; effectively implement the VND 145 trillion credit package for social housing; and determine to build 100,000 social housing units by the end of 2025.
Fifth, many land bidding projects continue to be implemented.
The Hanoi People's Committee expects to complete the set target of collecting VND25,105 billion from land auctions by the end of 2024, which is double that of previous years (an average of nearly VND10,000 billion per year).
In early 2025, Hanoi will auction 52 more rural residential land plots with long-term use in Quoc Oai district.
Many other localities are also interested in implementing land auction plans in 2025.
Sixth, many large, high-end commercial projects continue to launch at good prices.
The real estate market in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City in the first 3 quarters of 2024 recorded 23,900 primary apartments traded, an increase of 28% compared to the total number of transactions in the whole year of 2023.
Efforts to remove obstacles for the market in recent times are undeniable. Many localities such as Ho Chi Minh City, Binh Dinh, Binh Duong have made significant progress in resolving legal issues.
For example, Ho Chi Minh City has completed legal procedures for 8 real estate projects such as The Metropole Thu Thiem, Celadon City, Metro Star, Lotte Eco Smart City Thu Thiem... These are all projects with a total investment capital of up to thousands of billions of VND with large scale and diverse supply. From there, creating confidence for a strong recovery of the market in the last months of 2024 and gaining momentum for 2025.
Seventh, many legal bottlenecks continue to be resolved, creating new momentum for the real estate market.
In the 2023-2024 period, the National Assembly passed many laws and amended many laws related to the real estate market. In particular, at the end of 2024, the National Assembly passed Resolution 171, piloting the implementation of commercial housing projects through agreements on receiving land use rights or having land use rights. Through new regulations, many legal bottlenecks continue to be resolved, creating new momentum for the real estate market.
In addition, fiscal and monetary policies are being operated more flexibly, including for the corporate bond market, providing important resources and effective support for the recovery of the real estate market.
Dinh Tran
Source: https://www.congluan.vn/7-dong-luc-tang-truong-cua-thi-truong-bat-dong-san-trong-nam-2025-post327495.html
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