Former US President Donald Trump (Photo: Getty).
Despite the troubles that have hindered his path to returning to power in the White House once again, former US President Donald Trump is still showing that he is the most promising candidate of the Republican Party for this position. Reuters has analyzed 4 reasons that help Mr. Trump have a chance to be re-elected.
Support of the majority of voters
National polls show Mr. Trump leading his Republican rivals by about 50 percentage points, and he is also benefiting from voters dissatisfied with the policies of President Joe Biden’s administration.
The Biden administration has provided numbers to back up its argument that the U.S. economy remains in good shape. Unemployment has fallen to a near-historic low of 3.9%, a much more impressive rate than the 6.3% rate at the time Trump left office. In addition, inflation has fallen from a peak of more than 9% to 3.2% between June 2022 and October 2023.
But much of the public, including many voters of color and younger voters, doesn’t see it that way. The pace of price increases for essentials like groceries, cars, housing, child and elder care has outpaced their wages. Americans care more about their actual ability to pay than about the big numbers.
In particular, when it comes to economic issues, Donald Trump's Republican Party has won a certain amount of trust from voters.
Fear factor
Mr. Trump also reflects the real or unrealized anxieties that many white Americans have in an increasingly diverse country, fueling a sense that the cornerstones of American life — home ownership, education, and a decent wage that keeps up with inflation — are becoming increasingly out of reach for many.
In addition to the economic aspect, immigration issues and rising crime rates also make Americans uneasy. Polls show that voters are worried about the flow of migrants and illegal crossings of the US-Mexico border.
Mr Trump is very good at exploiting those fears.
Many voters still support Mr. Trump
While critics in the Republican, Democratic and media parties argue that Mr. Trump is unfit to be president, millions of voters disagree.
Many of his supporters believe that Mr Trump is a political victim, with at least half of Republicans polled by Reuters earlier this year saying they would still vote for Mr Trump if he were convicted of a crime.
Moreover, Mr. Trump can also point to his four years in office to argue that the government has been largely functional, if sometimes chaotic, and that allegations against him, such as collusion with Russia, are baseless.
Trump can blame Biden
Despite massive government investment in infrastructure, clean energy and chip manufacturing, the White House has failed to convince much of the public that Mr Biden’s job-creating policies have made a difference in their lives.
In addition, the conflicts in Ukraine and the Gaza Strip have also divided American voters. Mr. Trump's "America First" message may resonate with a large segment of voters who are wary of further U.S. involvement in Ukraine or Israel.
However, all this does not mean that Mr. Trump is certain to win next year's presidential election.
Mr Trump remains unpopular in many parts of the country, and his inflammatory rhetoric, including threats of retaliation against political opponents, could also anger moderate Republicans and independents — voters he desperately needs to defeat Mr Biden in next year’s election.
If he were then chosen as the Republican candidate, this could attract a high proportion of Democratic voters to vote against him.
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