How does the conflict in the Middle East affect the US election?

(Dan Tri) - The tense situation in the Middle East is expected to have a significant impact on the US presidential election, as the two candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are closely chasing each other in the race.

In the final weeks before the US presidential election in November, analysts are warning that Israel’s expanding military campaigns across the Middle East could hurt the chances of Democratic nominee Vice President Kamala Harris. Foreign policy is rarely a top priority for US voters. But Israel’s year-long war in the Gaza Strip, as well as its heavy bombing campaign in Lebanon, have raised questions about the US role in the conflict. The administration of US President Joe Biden has so far been steadfast in its support for Israel, creating divisions within the Democratic Party as some voters, particularly Arab Americans, turn away from the party. With Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris locked in a tight race with Republican rival Donald Trump, anger at the Biden administration could keep Arab voters in key states like Michigan from voting in November. Jim Zogby, co-founder of the Arab American Institute, told Al Jazeera that much of the decline in support for the Democratic presidential candidate was linked to the Biden administration's support for the war in Gaza, which has wiped out entire neighborhoods and killed more than 42,000 people, including many women and children. Israel's campaign has received about $20 billion in US arms support. "It's not that this group of voters is becoming more conservative, it's that they want to punish this administration for what they allowed to happen. It seems like Palestinian and Lebanese lives don't matter," Zogby said. A September poll by the Arab American Institute found Harris and Trump nearly tied among Arab voters, with 41% and 42% respectively. That would be a significant improvement for the Democrats. By the time Biden ran for re-election, his support among Arab voters had plummeted after the Gaza war broke out, dropping to just 17% in October 2023.

Scenes of devastation in Gaza after fighting (Photo: Reuters).

Biden won 59% of the Arab vote in the 2020 presidential race. When Biden dropped out of the 2024 race, some voters hoped that his replacement, Harris, would bring a breath of fresh air. But Harris has so far maintained Biden’s policies and has not called for an end to arms transfers to Israel, even as a series of escalating Israeli attacks have brought the Middle East to the brink of a wider regional war. Asked in a recent television interview if she would separate from Biden on any issue, Harris replied: “No issue that comes to mind.” Harris’s campaign also faced criticism at the Democratic National Convention in August, after party officials refused to allow a Palestinian-American speaker on stage to address the suffering in Gaza. “People are looking for the smallest acts of kindness, and the campaign isn’t delivering that. They’re making a mistake that’s costing them votes,” Zogby said. While U.S. policy toward Gaza may not be a top priority for most voters, more than 80% of Arab Americans say it will play a major role in deciding their vote. Many of those voters are concentrated in a handful of battleground states that play a major role in deciding the outcome of the U.S. presidential election. For example, the battleground state of Michigan has the second-largest Arab population in the country. It also has the largest proportion of Arab Americans of any state: Nearly 392,733 people identify as Arab in a state of 10 million. Polls average Harris’s lead there is only about 1.8 percentage points. The Democratic candidate's slim advantage in the state could be undermined by third-party candidates like Jill Stein, who have been aggressively courting Arab and Muslim American votes in the region. "The situation in Gaza has complicated the Democrats' chances in Michigan," said Michael Traugott, a research professor at the University of Michigan's Center for Political Research. "Since we expect things to be close, Harris will be hurt if a large portion of the state's Arab community stays home on Election Day," Traugott said. But Michigan's Arab Americans are not a monolithic community, and there have been sharp divisions within the community over how best to leverage their electoral leverage. Some believe Harris's loss in Michigan should send a warning to future candidates about underestimating the influence of Arab voters.

Protesters gather to demand a ceasefire in Gaza near the site of the September 10 presidential debate in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA (Photo: Reuters).

The final weeks of the race for the White House come as the threat of escalating conflict continues to hang over the Middle East, adding an element of uncertainty to the presidential campaign. In early October, Iran launched a ballistic missile attack on Israel, in response to the killings of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut, among others. Israel then launched a ground operation in southern Lebanon, in addition to a bombing campaign in the region. Israel is expected to take further action against Iran. Analysts fear that a large-scale Israeli retaliation could spark a devastating war between Israel and Iran, a worry that many American voters also worry about. A September Pew Research Center poll found that 44% of Americans were extremely or very concerned about the conflict spreading to other countries in the Middle East. 44% are concerned about the possibility of the US getting directly involved in the conflict. Democratic-leaning voters believe that Israel's war in Gaza has gone too far and that the US should do more to end it. Laura Silver, associate director of global research at the Pew Research Center, said those results reflect the differences between Democrats and Republicans on foreign policy. "Republican-leaning Americans are more likely to want the US to provide weapons to Israel and less likely to want the US to play a diplomatic role," Silver said. Younger and older people also have different approaches to the war in Gaza and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in general, she noted. A February poll found that 36% of 18- to 29-year-olds said the Biden administration has supported Israel too much in the current war, compared with just 16% of 50- to 64-year-olds who agreed. However, Zogby said Democrats have yet to recognize the changes taking place among key constituencies, such as young people and communities of color, on the Palestinian issue. "The Democrats haven't changed on this, but the people who vote for them have. They're not listening and they're going to pay the price for it," he warned. According to the Telegraph , one factor that could hurt the Democratic presidential candidate is the rising price of oil as tensions in the Middle East escalate. The risk of higher gas prices, higher inflation and an existential threat to Ms. Harris's campaign also increases. After Iran launched a "rain" of missiles at Israel on October 1, Israeli officials are considering a "large-scale retaliation" that could include targeting Iranian oil refineries. If prices continue to rise, this will be a headache for Democrats in the election next month. “Voters will see high oil prices as a sign that the Biden-Harris administration has failed to manage the situation in the Middle East, which will make them look weak,” said Bjarne Schieldrop, an analyst at SEB, a financial services group. Schieldrop also predicted that Republicans would seize on the opportunity to portray any rise in oil prices as evidence that Democrats are unreliable on economics or foreign policy. Just before Iran launched missiles at Israel, Harold Hamm, a US shale oil magnate and prominent Republican donor, told the Financial Times that the Biden administration had left the US “unusually vulnerable” to oil price shocks from the Middle East. "In the US, a 10% increase in oil prices means a 10% increase in gasoline prices. That hurts a lot more. In addition, many Americans are living paycheck to paycheck, and if they suddenly have to spend more on gasoline, they will be hit hard. That will be detrimental to Ms. Harris," Mr. Schieldrop said.

Conflict turns in favor of Donald Trump?

Former US President Donald Trump (left) and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (Photo: AFP).

Despite continued US efforts, the prospect of a ceasefire in Gaza and the wider Middle East seems increasingly remote. After Iran's 200-rocket attack on Israel, a US State Department spokesperson said: "We will not give up on achieving a ceasefire in Gaza because we believe that is the best way to rescue the hostages." But he later added, referring to Hamas, "It takes both sides, and right now, one side is refusing to participate." According to the Asia Times , it is increasingly likely that there will be no political victory for President Joe Biden in the Middle East before the November 5 election. Some say this is partly because Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hopes that Trump will win in November and then he can draw the US into a confrontation with Iran. The US appeared to be making some progress on a ceasefire in July, but then came the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, Iran. Israel was accused of being behind the assassination. Some saw the Hamas leader's killing as not only an attempt to draw Iran into the conflict, but also a clear blow to the chances of a ceasefire. Haniyeh was soon replaced by a more radical Hamas commander, Yahya Sinwar. The US again hoped to reach a peace deal in September, but Prime Minister Netanyahu scuttled the deal with last-minute demands. These included a ban on armed men returning to northern Gaza during the ceasefire and Israel retaining control of the Philadelphia Corridor, a narrow strip of land along Gaza's border with Egypt. Reports suggested that Netanyahu had deliberately interfered in the negotiations and used delaying tactics throughout the summer. But what is the political purpose of delaying peace? Netanyahu is probably counting on a Trump victory and a more “manipulable” US administration than Biden. Netanyahu has claimed that he convinced Trump to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal, a landmark agreement brokered by the Obama administration in 2015 that lifted economic sanctions on Iran in exchange for curbs on its nuclear program. Many saw it as a step toward global peace. Trump’s controversial decision to move the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem was also seen as a symbolic “victory” for Netanyahu and the Israeli right. Democrats have grown increasingly skeptical that Netanyahu is trying to meddle in US domestic politics by ignoring President Biden’s calls to negotiate a Middle East peace deal and escalating tensions ahead of the US election. The rapidly escalating confrontation between Israel, Hezbollah and Hezbollah’s ally Iran has undermined President Biden’s efforts to achieve peace through diplomacy, while former President Trump warned that the world is “spinning out of control” under Biden. Biden’s approval ratings among American Muslims have been falling amid rising violence in the Middle East, creating a serious political burden for Vice President Harris in Michigan, a must-win Democratic battleground state.

US Vice President Kamala Harris (right) and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (Photo: EPA).

David Rothkopf, a former Clinton administration official and former executive director and editor of Foreign Policy magazine, said Democrats have good reason to consider the Netanyahu administration's latest military moves in the context of how they could affect the 2024 US presidential election. "I think that's a legitimate concern based on my conversations with the Israelis. They understand that Netanyahu is a Trump supporter and feels that a Trump presidency would be more beneficial to him in the long run. So in some ways that could influence the decisions he makes in the coming weeks," Rothkopf told The Hill. Many Arab Americans are likely to vote for Trump (or at least against Harris) in November. Jewish-American voters traditionally tend to vote Democratic, with about 70% of Jews identifying as Democrats. This is important because there are significant Jewish communities in battleground states like Pennsylvania (433,000), Florida (672,000) and Georgia (141,000). The trend is different among Arab Americans, who have been haunted by the conflict in Gaza (and now Lebanon) and angered by the Biden administration’s response to Israel. While the US has used diplomatic pressure to push for a ceasefire, Washington recently continued to sell Israel another $20 billion in fighter jets and other weapons, one of the largest military packages since the start of the Gaza war. Given a list of 10 issues and asked to choose the three most important, 60% of Arab Americans surveyed chose Gaza, and 57% said the war in Gaza would influence their vote. This may explain why nearly 80% of Arab American voters have an unfavorable view of Biden (based on a survey conducted in May), while only 55% have an unfavorable view of Trump. While Arab Americans may not necessarily like Trump, they cannot stand to support a government that fails to prevent the humanitarian disaster in Gaza. They may abstain from voting or vote for a third-party candidate. Prime Minister Netanyahu is hoping that this issue will sway the election in Trump’s favor. Arab Americans make up a significant voting bloc in battleground states like Pennsylvania (126,000 Arab Americans) and Michigan (392,000 Arab Americans). One possibility is that the Jewish American vote will remain the same from 2020 to 2024, but the Arab American vote, which supported Biden 64% nationally in 2020 and nearly 70% in the crucial state of Michigan, will shift. That could tip the balance against Harris in a state that Biden won by just 154,000 votes. Many Arab American voters do not believe Harris will be different on policy than Biden. In a poll conducted in Michigan in August by the Council on American-Islamic Relations, only 12% of Muslim American voters there supported Harris. These voters are demanding a ceasefire, but the prospect of this remains remote so far.

According to Aljazeera, Asia Times, The Hill, Telegraph

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