How does the Russia-Ukraine conflict affect the return of nuclear power?

There is no alternative to nuclear energy if we talk about the world's latest technological developments in the energy sector, especially in the context of implementing Net zero by 2050.

Wind farms, solar panels and other clean energy sources are unstable and incapable of providing the required amount of electricity. This is confirmed by the current energy crisis in Europe, which has become more serious after the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Nuclear energy is one of mankind's greatest achievements.

Nuclear power: old and new

In some countries where fossil fuels and water are scarce, there is no alternative to nuclear power. More and more countries are interested in nuclear power. As of mid-2022, there were 53 reactors under construction worldwide, including 21 in China and 8 in India, compared to 46 in 2019.

According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), as of January 1, 2023, of the 52 reactors currently under construction, 9 are located in new countries, 28 countries are interested in nuclear energy and have plans or are actively working to integrate it into their energy mix. An additional 24 Member States participate in IAEA activities. Between 10 and 12 Member States plan to commission nuclear power plants between 2030 and 2035.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), since 2017, 87% of new nuclear reactors built or under construction were of Russian or Chinese designs. Some former leaders have lost ground in the field.

Another problem for the industry is that its reactors are aging or nearing the end of their useful lives. About 63% of the world’s nuclear reactor generating capacity is over 30 years old and requires significant investment to maintain or extend the operation of these plants. And if the money is not allocated, the existing nuclear reactor fleet in developed countries could be reduced by 30%.

The head of the IEA believes that without nuclear energy, the world will not achieve its climate neutrality goal by 2050, and called on governments and businesses in developed countries to change their attitudes towards nuclear energy for peaceful purposes.

Countries with the largest number of operating nuclear reactors in 2022

According to the report “International Nuclear Energy Situation and Prospects 2021”, there is a growing global awareness that without access to modern, reliable, sustainable and affordable energy sources for all (UN Sustainable Development Goal 7), it will be difficult to achieve any of the 16 goals, including eradicating poverty, hunger, inequality and climate change.

According to the IAEA's 2021 report, there are two possible scenarios: an optimistic scenario, in which the world's nuclear power industry will double its capacity by mid-century, and a pessimistic scenario, in which it will maintain the current installed capacity level, but production will increase.

The report says that to achieve the goal of net zero by 2050, global nuclear power must double by 2050, which means that in essence, the IAEA's optimistic scenario must be realised. In some scenarios, nuclear power plays a leading role, for example, Shell's forecast shows the highest growth rate of nuclear power, 7.8% per year, while BP's scenario shows growth of 2.7% - 3%.

Let's see how some nuclear power powers are responding to the need for electricity and a green economy:

Europe: supporters, opponents

In Europe, there is a group of countries, led by France with President Macron, that clearly understand the prospects for nuclear energy development and have proposed to include nuclear energy in the European Classification System (a classification system created to clarify environmentally friendly and sustainable investments within the framework of the European Green Deal) and recognize nuclear power as green energy.

In October 2021, an article was published in the media, signed by 15 Ministers from Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Finland, France, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia, stating: “Nuclear energy is safe and innovative. Over the past 60 years, the European nuclear industry has proven its reliability and safety. The development of this industry could create about one million highly qualified jobs in Europe..."

In November 2021, 16 politicians from eight European countries, most notably Germany and Austria, wrote to the European Commission (EC) asking that nuclear power not be included in the EU Classification. “The future belongs to renewables,” the politicians stressed. However, in July 2022, nuclear power was still included in the EU Classification in the Additional Delegation Act.

As for France, they are stepping up their overseas investments. In October 2021, the French utility EDF submitted a proposal to the Polish government to build four to six third-generation (EPR) units. However, some problems with the construction process in Finland (slow commissioning) caused Warsaw to reject France. Korean or American companies will build the nuclear power plant in Poland. In April 2021, EDF submitted a feasibility proposal for the Jaitapur Nuclear Power Plant in India with six EPR reactors to the Indian nuclear corporation NPCIL. The deal is currently being finalized.

America does not give up nuclear energy

The United States has the world's oldest and most robust nuclear energy industry, but due to the reduction of its nuclear program, the country has fallen behind in this industry. According to the IAEA (as of January 1, 2023), there are 92 reactors (54 nuclear power plants) in operation with a total installed capacity of 94,718 MW.

In 2021, US nuclear power plants generated 778 billion kWh, 1.5% less than in 2020. The share of nuclear power generation in total electricity production decreased to 18.9% compared to 19.7% in 2020.

Most of the nuclear power plants in operation were built between 1967 and 1990. After the accident at Three Mile Island (1979), the nuclear industry crisis intensified, linked to the slow return on investment of nuclear power plants and competition from coal and gas plants. In the past 26 years, only one new reactor has been commissioned. The nuclear power plant fleet continues to age, with an average age of 41.6 years, one of the oldest in the world. Currently, only the new AP-1000 nuclear power plant is under construction in Georgia.

Palo Verde NPP, the largest nuclear power plant in the US (Arizona state) with 3 units, each unit has a capacity of 1400 MW

While the United States has declared a policy of moving toward “clean” energy, it is not seeking to abandon nuclear power. The U.S. Department of Energy recently proposed tripling the capacity of domestic nuclear power plants, building a total of 200 GW of new nuclear capacity by 2050 to ensure Net Zero. The program is estimated to cost more than $700 billion. To achieve this goal, it is necessary to ensure the operation of a total of 13 GW of nuclear power plants per year, starting from 2030.

However, according to experts, the United States has fallen behind in this industry, reactor construction technology is underdeveloped, fuel extraction and enrichment are not carried out, and the construction of such a reactor volume would require about 3 trillion USD. This program, if realized, would have a huge impact on the entire US economy and its implementation is entirely possible.

China: leading the world in growth rate

As of mid-2022, China had 55 reactors in operation with a total capacity of about 52 GW. In 2021, nuclear power plants generated 383.2 billion kWh in China, accounting for 5% of the country's electricity, almost the same as in 2020. China has the youngest nuclear industry. In March 2022, the National Energy Administration announced a plan to increase the industry's capacity to 70 GW by 2025. As of 2022, China is building 21 units with a capacity of 20,932 MW.

In 2021, China began construction of three new power units (Changjiang-3 and 4 and Sanaocun-2) with the Hualong One (Chinese Dragon) reactor, HPR-1000, a third-generation pressurized water reactor project. China plans to use this project as a basis for nuclear power development and technology export.

Japan: before and after Fukushima

Before the Fukushima-1 nuclear power plant accident in March 2011, Japan's nuclear power industry accounted for about 25–30% of the country's electricity and was an important link in the country's development strategy of "energy security - environmental protection - economic growth". But a year after the disaster, this figure dropped to 2.7% and in 2020 it was 4.3%.

After the accident, the Japanese decided to shut down 27 operating reactors and halt construction of three new reactors. Measures were also taken to ensure safety in case of natural disasters and a new agency was established - the Nuclear Regulation Authority (NRA). To protect against tsunamis, construction of higher and stronger sea walls began.

In August 2022, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said he would restart idled nuclear power plants, marking a turning point for the industry. Prime Minister Kishida has directed a government panel to study the use of next-generation nuclear reactors equipped with new safety mechanisms to help Japan achieve its goal of carbon neutrality by 2050. So the possibility of a “nuclear renaissance” from Japan is also possible.

In 2021, the number of operating nuclear reactors in Japan remained stable at just 10 reactors with a capacity of less than 10 GW. At the same time, there was a significant growth in the 2020–2021 period from 43.1 TWh, corresponding to a share of 5.1% of the total capacity, to 61.3 TWh (7.2%).

Russia: leading developer

Currently, Russia's Rosenergoatom Group operates 11 nuclear power plants, operating 37 units with a total installed capacity of over 29.5 GW. In terms of production, Russia ranks 4th in the world. In 2022, Russian nuclear power plants set a production record of 223.371 billion kWh.

Russia is currently the world leader in the construction of nuclear power plants abroad, accounting for 70% of the global nuclear power plant construction market. In 2021, construction of five VVER-1200 units began, including in China, India and Türkiye. Russia is currently building 10 nuclear power plants worldwide.

According to the US magazine Power, the Russian power plant with the VVER-1200 reactor (unit 6 of the Novovoronezh Nuclear Power Plant (NVAES-2 No. 1) of the 3+ generation won the award in the category “Best Plant” in 2017. Power magazine stated: “The new VVER-1200 unit of the Novovoronezh NPP is based on the latest achievements and developments, all of which meet all post-Fukushima safety requirements (that is why this unit is considered a 3+ generation reactor). It is the first and only one of its kind with a unique combination of active and passive safety features.”

Russia's Rosatom nuclear energy corporation is now the world's second largest producer of uranium, mining about 7,000 tons per year (15% of the world market). In the first half of 2023, the US bought 416 tons of uranium from Russia, 2.2 times more than in the same period in 2022, the highest level since 2005 and accounting for 32% of US nuclear fuel needs.

The United States is suffering from the costs of relying too much on nuclear fuel from Russia, and therefore plans to increase production of enriched uranium at the Urenco plant in New Mexico, according to White House nuclear adviser Pranay Vaddi. As for Russia, it continues to develop its nuclear power aggressively.

In summary, many analysts are now adjusting their forecasts for nuclear capacity growth. According to the latest estimates from the IAEA, installed nuclear power capacity worldwide will increase to 873 GW by 2050, 10% higher than the agency’s forecast last year. According to the IEA, global nuclear power generation will increase by 16–22% by 2030 and 38–65% by 2050. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenario, global nuclear power generation will increase by 2–5 times by 2050. OPEC experts believe that the share of nuclear power in the overall energy mix will increase from 5.3 to 6.6% between 2021 and 2045.

Source: https://baoquocte.vn/xung-dot-nga-ukraine-tac-dong-nhu-the-nao-den-su-quay-tro-lai-cua-dien-hat-nhan-242812.html