Vietnam's import and export in 2024: Towards a new record

Total import and export turnover of goods in the first 9 months of 2024 reached 578.47 billion USD, opening up a great possibility of setting a new record this year. However, while import and export are "sublimating" to set a new record, new uncertainties have also arisen or there are signs of arising in a more difficult direction.

Sure to surpass the 732 billion USD mark by 2022

According to the General Statistics Office, in the first 9 months of 2024, the total import and export turnover reached 578.47 billion USD, an increase of 16.3% over the same period last year. Of which, exports increased by 15.4% and imports increased by 17.3%. Thus, to surpass the record of 732 billion USD achieved in 2022, the total import and export turnover in the remaining 3 months of 2024 needs to reach about 153.53 billion USD (equivalent to about 51.17 billion USD per month). This figure is not difficult to achieve, because in the past 9 months, the average monthly turnover reached about 64.27 billion USD and even if there are negative developments, imports and exports will hardly fall below 51 billion USD/month in the next 3 months.

Considering a relatively higher level, for example the 800 billion USD milestone, this possibility is still feasible. Because the export and import turnover in the fourth quarter is often much higher than other quarters.

For example, in 2020, the export and import turnover in the fourth quarter accounted for 28.5% of the total turnover of the year (up 26.2% compared to the first quarter, up 32.9% compared to the second quarter and up 4.3% compared to the third quarter). Similarly, in 2021, the fourth quarter accounted for 27.6% of the total turnover (up 19.8%, 12.9% and 11.3% compared to the first, second and third quarters, respectively). In 2022 alone, due to the impact of the post-Covid-19 pandemic, import and export activities began to be affected and declined in the last months of the year compared to the same period in previous years, so the export and import turnover in the fourth quarter only accounted for 23.8%. By the end of 2023, import and export activities showed signs of recovery, with the proportion of the fourth quarter turnover accounting for 27.3% of the total turnover of the year (increased by 21.1%, 14%, 4.7% respectively compared to the first, second and third quarters of the year).

The concern now is whether that pattern will repeat itself this year? In the context of the current uncertain global economy, there are always two possibilities: possible and unlikely. On the positive and optimistic side, the trend of cooling inflation and falling interest rates in Vietnam's major trading partner economies signals that demand will improve, which could have a more positive impact on exports and imports (especially exports). However, on the contrary, new uncertainties also arise or show signs of arising in a more difficult direction, especially the risk of war in the Middle East and energy prices returning to the current strong upward trend... This shows that exports and imports in 2024, although only a very short journey, will be more bumpy.

Synchronize solutions to increase import and export turnover

Efforts to affirm product quality

According to Mr. Nguyen Ba Hung, Chief Economist of ADB in Vietnam, the growth rate of goods exports and imports will maintain double-digit growth (about more than 10%) in 2024.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF)’s recent Article IV Consultation Report 2024 with Vietnam also warned that downside risks remain high. Exports, an important growth driver, could weaken if global growth falls short of expectations, global geopolitical tensions persist or trade disputes escalate. Meanwhile, HSBC Global Research experts stressed that Vietnam’s economic recovery has continued to be more resilient in recent times, with a significant contribution from very positive export growth. However, Western markets account for nearly half of Vietnam’s exports and whether demand from these markets for goods will continue to improve in the future needs to be closely monitored.

Indeed, in terms of trends, concerns have begun to emerge as the export and import turnover of goods in September decreased by 8% compared to the previous month. Of which, exports only reached 34.05 billion USD, although still up 10.7% compared to the same period last year, but decreased by 9.9% compared to the previous month. Similarly, import turnover in September 2024 (reaching 31.76 billion USD) also decreased by 5.9% compared to the previous month, although still up 11.1% compared to the same period last year. The fact that the export and import turnover in September only reached 65.81 billion USD also shows that the milestone of 800 billion USD in export and import this year is more difficult to achieve, but the opportunity is not completely gone.

According to Ms. Dinh Thi Thuy Phuong, Director of the Department of Trade and Service Statistics, General Statistics Office, the import and export results in the first 9 months of 2024 were very positive, reflecting the trend of increasing world demand and showing the efforts of the Government in directing ministries, branches and localities, along with the determination of enterprises to take advantage of market opportunities, free trade agreements, or strengthening trade promotion and advertising of Vietnamese products to the international market; at the same time, affirming the quality of goods from Vietnam that are trusted by the world.

To further increase Vietnam's export turnover in the coming time, the representative of the General Statistics Office proposed to implement a number of groups of solutions synchronously and effectively. In particular, it is necessary to improve the quality of exported goods, especially focusing on product traceability, reducing the cost of exported goods, improving price competitiveness and product quality in the world market, especially for Vietnam's key export products. Along with that, it is necessary to continue to diversify the forms of widespread propaganda about incentives in FTAs, promote exports, improve efficiency and ensure the sustainability of Vietnamese goods exports to markets that have signed FTAs. In addition, it is necessary to continue to innovate trade promotion activities, focusing on promoting at the highest level the digital transformation program in trade promotion activities, connecting domestic and foreign supply and demand.

Source: https://thoibaonganhang.vn/xuat-nhap-khau-viet-nam-nam-2024-huong-toi-ky-luc-moi-156591.html