| Positive signals on supply, export coffee prices recover Robusta coffee prices increased for three consecutive sessions amid a slight decrease in the USD and a surge in gold |
According to market surveys, the price of green coffee in the domestic market continues to increase sharply these days. In the domestic market, it was recorded that this morning (March 5), the price of green coffee in the Central Highlands and the Southern provinces increased by 1,100 VND/kg. Accordingly, domestic coffee is currently purchased at around 86,200 - 87,100 VND/kg.
Coffee prices have been breaking records in recent days, bringing joy to farmers. Currently, domestic coffee prices have nearly doubled compared to the same period last year. With this price, many coffee growers said that this year's crop is 2-4 times more profitable than rice farming.
The reason why coffee prices are continuously reaching new peaks is because the world's demand for Vietnamese Robusta coffee is very high. Along with that, the demand in the domestic market is also increasing strongly, so some green coffee products are used to roast and dissolve in water.
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| Accumulated in the first two months of 2024, Vietnam's coffee exports are estimated at 438 thousand tons. |
Preliminary statistics from the General Department of Customs show that Vietnam exported 200,000 tons of coffee last February, worth 655 million USD. Compared to February 2023, coffee exports decreased by 0.2% in volume, but increased sharply by 50.3% in value.
In the first two months of 2024, Vietnam exported about 438 thousand tons of coffee, earning 1.38 billion USD, up 27.9% in volume and 85% in value over the same period in 2023. Accordingly, coffee export turnover set a historical record when it surpassed the 1 billion USD mark after only 2 months.
Notably, coffee export prices increased sharply. In February, the average export price of Vietnamese coffee was estimated at 3,276 USD/ton, up 7.4% over the previous month and up 50.6% over February 2023. In the first two months of 2024, the average export price of Vietnamese coffee reached 3,153 USD/ton, up 44.7% over the same period in 2023.
In terms of varieties, Vietnam increased exports of Robusta and Arabica coffee, but reduced exports of Excelsa and processed coffee. In particular, Vietnam boosted exports of Robusta coffee to many markets, such as: Italy, Spain, Russia, Indonesia, Belgium, China, Philippines...
Recent forecasts show that world coffee prices will be under downward pressure in the coming time due to sell-off activities of funds and speculators, despite concerns about tightening supply due to international shipping problems and increasing global demand for coffee.
Global coffee exports in December 2023 increased by 13.6% year-on-year to 12.2 million bags, bringing total coffee exports in the first three months of the current crop year 2023-2024 to 32.4 million bags, up 6.8% year-on-year.
The output is forecast by the Coffee-Cocoa Association to decrease by 10% compared to the previous crop year to 1.6 million tons. The reason is that the coffee growing area has been narrowed as farmers change their planting direction.
Estimated Vietnamese coffee exports increased sharply in the first two months of 2024 and Brazil's coffee output in 2024-2025 is expected to be higher than previous forecasts as dry weather has eased, while fluctuations in the USD/BRL exchange rate have encouraged the country's people to boost coffee export sales.
Coffee is the third highest export product in the agricultural sector, behind only wood and seafood. However, the export value of coffee is only 22 million USD lower than that of seafood.
With this situation, experts predict that coffee exports could reach 4.5-5 billion USD in 2024. This will be a new record year for Vietnam's coffee export turnover.
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