The trend of 'fear' of having children, Vietnam's population growth forecast to be negative

According to the Ministry of Health, in 1994, at the International Conference on Population and Development held in Cairo (Egypt), 179 countries including Vietnam adopted the Action Program in the field of population and development.

The trend of marrying later, having children later and having fewer children, if not intervened, are factors that will cause negative population growth in Vietnam in the future.

During 30 years of implementing the Action Program, Vietnam has achieved results in population work such as: the population growth rate has been successfully controlled, our country entered the golden population period since 2007; average life expectancy has increased rapidly, the stature, physical strength, and quality of life of the people have improved in many aspects.

However, population work in the coming time will face many difficulties and challenges, in which Vietnam is facing the risk of not achieving the goal of maintaining replacement fertility nationwide; the population is aging rapidly and will soon become an aging population country.

Besides, the situation of early marriage and incestuous marriage is still slow to be overcome; population quality, especially in remote, isolated and disadvantaged areas, is still limited.

Notably, according to the Ministry of Health, the sex ratio at birth remains high. The biologically normal sex ratio at birth is 104 - 106/100 girls.

In Vietnam, since 2009, the results of the population census have recorded that this ratio has exceeded the normal biological level and since 2010, this ratio has reached an alarming level of 110.5 boys/100 girls. In some places, this ratio has reached 114/100.

The population decline is getting bigger and bigger.

Regarding factors that reduce population growth, Mr. Le Thanh Dung, Director of the Department of Population (Ministry of Health), said that in Vietnam, according to domestic studies and surveys, the age of marriage is increasing, the marriage rate is decreasing. This shows that the trend of late marriage, not wanting to marry, not wanting to have children, giving birth late, giving birth less, giving birth less frequently is increasing and tends to spread.

According to population experts' estimates, Vietnam's population growth rate is decreasing, with an average increase of 1.07% in the 2017-2020 period.

However, due to the slight decrease in fertility, the population growth rate has gradually decreased in recent years (the average population growth rate in 2022 is 0.98%, in 2023 is 0.84%) and is forecast to continue to decrease in the following years, according to the Vietnam population forecast 2019 - 2069 of the General Statistics Office.

In the case of a sharp decline in fertility as in the low scenario, after 2054, Vietnam's population will begin to grow negatively and the population decline will become increasingly large.

On the contrary, if the replacement fertility rate remains stable throughout the forecast period as targeted in Resolution No. 21/NQ-TW of the 12th Central Executive Committee dated October 25, 2017 on population work in the new situation, by the end of the forecast period, Vietnam's population will still increase slightly, with an average annual increase of 0.17% in the period 2064 - 2069, equivalent to 200,000 people per year.

Thus, if the birth rate continues to decrease, the number of people born will decrease, the working-age population will decrease in the future, while the average life expectancy of Vietnamese people will increase rapidly, leading to a very high proportion of the elderly population in the total population and Vietnam will have an aging population structure.

"We are implementing policies to control fertility and make timely adjustments when fertility tends to decrease. Currently, no country in the world has succeeded in bringing fertility back to replacement level when TFR has decreased sharply. Therefore, Vietnam needs to focus on intervening immediately when there are signs of a large-scale decline in fertility to avoid low fertility," said Mr. Dung.

On the occasion of the 30th anniversary of the implementation of the Action Program on Population and Development and the World Population Day on July 11 this year in Vietnam with the theme "Investing in population work is investing in sustainable development", the Ministry of Health requested the People's Committees and Steering Committees for Population and Development of provinces and cities to promote population communication activities on mass media, hang banners, posters, documents, leaflets with the content of population work related to life, society and sustainable development of the country and localities in the present and the future.

Strengthening the direction of inter-sectoral coordination; assigning tasks, implementing effective coordination mechanisms between agencies, unions and organizations participating in population work in the area, in order to create fundamental changes in awareness and action of the entire political system and all classes of people regarding the tasks and contents of population work in the new situation.

Source: https://thanhnien.vn/xu-huong-ngai-sinh-con-du-bao-dan-so-viet-nam-tang-truong-am-185240703102338393.htm