'Weapon' that could make US House of Representatives pass Ukraine aid package

Pro-Ukraine lawmakers in the US House of Representatives are using a "fault line motion" as a pressure weapon to push through a $60 billion aid package for Kiev.

House Speaker Mike Johnson, a Republican, said on March 14 that additional aid to Ukraine and Israel would be voted on separately in the coming weeks, a sign that House Republican leaders appear to have made a concession on aid to Ukraine after months of staunch opposition.

The $95 billion military aid bill for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan was overwhelmingly passed by the US Senate in February, with 22 Republicans voting along with most Democrats. The bill then moved to the House of Representatives for consideration.

US House Speaker Mike Johnson at a press conference in Congress on January 30. Photo: AFP

However, a small group of Republican lawmakers loyal to former President Donald Trump, who oppose military aid to Ukraine, have threatened to impeach House Speaker Johnson if he brings the bill to a vote. Under pressure from this group of far-right lawmakers, Johnson has delayed the bill for weeks, causing a stalemate in the $61 billion aid package for Ukraine amid the country's many difficulties on the battlefield.

But it appears House Democrats have found a rarely used weapon to force Johnson to change his mind: the "override motion."

Under normal procedure, a bill must be reviewed and evaluated by committees appointed by the Speaker of the House before it can be put to a vote. This provision allows the Speaker of the House to delay a vote on the bill for a long time.

But if a “override motion” is filed and signed by a majority of lawmakers, the bill goes straight to the House for a vote without a committee review. When “override” occurs, neither the Speaker nor the committees can do anything to stop the bill from being voted on.

House Democrats last week began a “fault line” effort to force a vote on the Senate-passed Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan aid bill. A small bipartisan group of lawmakers is also pushing a second motion that would tie the Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan aid provision to border security measures in the new bill.

To be successful, the petition needs to gather at least 218 signatures from lawmakers. The first petition had 177 co-signers, but they all came from Democrats who are in the minority in the House. Since some progressive Democrats have refused to support the aid provision to Israel, the petitioners will likely have to convince many Republicans to join them.

Override motions of this kind are rarely introduced in the US House of Representatives, as they have a very low chance of success. Members of the majority party are often reluctant to sign the motion, fearing that they will be seen as undermining the party’s leadership.

But with House Republicans deeply divided, the bill’s chances of success suddenly become higher. The urgency of the request for aid to Ukraine would also likely push hardline foreign policy Republicans toward supporting the bill, if they believe that Ukraine aid needs to be passed immediately.

It is unclear whether these petitions will gain a majority, but they seem to be making a rare impact on US politics, forcing Republicans to change their stance on the aid package for Ukraine, experts say.

“Sooner or later, the foreign aid package is going to be voted on,” said House Rules Committee Chairman Tom Cole. “So we can either put together our own aid package and pass it, or we have to accept whatever the override motion produces.”

Cole’s comments referred to the biggest impact that could happen if Democrats muster enough support for their override motion. The threat of that scenario is believed to have put pressure on House Republican leaders to consider action.

Since 1935, about 639 override motions have been introduced in the House of Representatives, but less than 4% of them have succeeded, said Sarah Binder, a fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington. Another 4% have failed to gain enough support, but the threat of them has forced the House to act.

Ukrainian soldiers fire at Russian positions in Bakhmut, eastern Donetsk province, February 22. Photo: AFP

That rate has dropped significantly in recent decades. In the 21st century, the only successful overrides were when Republicans persuaded their president to pass a campaign finance reform bill in 2002 and when a bipartisan group forced a House vote to reauthorize the Export-Import Bank in 2015.

House Speaker Johnson faces a number of challenges. Ukraine is in dire straits, and many in his own party are growing impatient as desperately needed aid to Kiev stalls. Divisions within the Republican Party leave him with few options.

In this context, Johnson could see the Democrats’ override motion as an excuse to bring the Ukraine aid bill to a vote. That would be better for Johnson politically, as it would help him avoid the attacks of those skeptical of Ukraine aid.

Notably, some far-right members, like Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, are suggesting that they will not hold Johnson accountable or seek to oust him if he cannot ignore the override motion being pushed by Democrats.

"But even if Johnson sees it as an excuse, the fact that House Democrats can use this tool to exert pressure shows how confused the Republican Party is becoming internally," Aaron Blake, a veteran commentator from the Washington Post , assessed.

Vu Hoang (According to Washington Post, Reuters, AFP )

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