SSI Securities Corporation's analysis department (SSI Research) forecasts changes in the VNDiamond index portfolio and updates data on calculating the weight of the VN30 portfolio for the second quarter of 2025.
The HoSE-Index, VNX-Index and investment indices including VNDiamond, VNFIN Lead and VNFIN Select will restructure their portfolios for the second quarter of 2025. In particular, the VNDiamond index will review changes in its component portfolio. Meanwhile, the remaining indices including VN30 and VNFIN Lead will only update data and recalculate portfolio weights.
According to the roadmap, the portfolio restructuring for the second quarter of 2025 will be based on data as of March 31. The new portfolio announcement date is April 16, 2025. Funds will have nearly 2 weeks to complete the portfolio restructuring by April 29, 2025.
CTD and MWG may fall into the VNDiamond "basket"
Regarding the VNDiamond index, with estimated data on March 14, 2025, SSI Research forecasts that MWG shares may be included in the "maintenance basket" because the shares were included in the basket for the first time in the index in the previous period and satisfy all conditions in this period. Accordingly, the coefficient %wS (limit on weight of maintained, first-time, pending-to-be-eliminated shares) applied to MWG increases from 50% to 100%.
In addition, this unit also predicts that CTD shares can be included in the index for the first time because they satisfy all the conditions. According to the new rules, CTD is applied with a weight limit of %wS of 50%.
Meanwhile, VIB may be put in the “basket” waiting to be removed. VIB’s FOL (foreign ownership limit) ratio fell below 65% after the bank adjusted the maximum foreign ownership ratio from 20.5% to 4.99% from July 1, 2024. According to the new rules, VIB is put in the “basket” waiting to be removed and applied a %wS ratio of 50%, equivalent to a 50% reduction in the proportion of shares. In the next period, if the FOL cannot be improved to above 65%, VIB may be completely removed from the index.
VRE stock may be removed from the index due to not meeting the FOL conditions. According to SSI Research's calculations, VRE has not been in the top 25 stocks with the highest FOL coefficient for the second consecutive period. In addition, because in the review period of Q4/2024, VRE was put in the Elimination Basket, it is not eligible to be retained in the index in this period.
It is known that the “basket” of stocks entering the index for the first time is determined according to two principles. Firstly, stocks are in the provisional stock basket this period but not in the official stock basket of the previous period; or stocks are in the provisional stock “basket” this period and are in the “basket” waiting to be eliminated in the previous period.
The “basket” of stocks maintained for two consecutive periods is the stock in the “basket” of stocks provisionally calculated for this period but not in the basket of stocks waiting to be eliminated and the basket of stocks entering the index for the first time. The “basket” of stocks officially for this period includes stocks waiting to be eliminated, stocks entering the index for the first time and maintained.
Assuming the above changes, the new index portfolio will include 19 stocks, of which 10 stocks in the banking sector will be subject to the maximum weighting for the entire sector of 40%. Among the ETFs on the market, there are currently 5 ETFs using the VNDiamond index as a reference, including DCVFMVN Diamond, MAFM VNDiamond, BVFVN Diamond, KIM Growth Diamond, and ABF VNDiamond with a total net asset value of about VND 12,400 billion as of March 14, 2025. The DCVFMVN Diamond fund alone currently has a total asset value of about VND 11,800 billion. Specifically, since the beginning of 2025, the total fund asset value has decreased by 6.6%, the Net Asset Value (NAV) has decreased by 3.4%, and the net capital withdrawal value is VND 418 billion.
SSI Research estimates that the DCVFMVN Diamond fund will buy 2.9 million MWG shares and 1.1 million CTD shares, while selling about 5 million VRE shares and 10.5 million VIB shares from the portfolio. In addition, some stocks are estimated to be significantly purchased such as: VPB (3.9 million shares), MBB (3.5 million shares), MSB (3 million shares). At the same time, the fund may sell a large amount of ACB shares (5.8 million shares) and HDB shares (3.5 million shares).
Changes in VN30: Many bank stocks were sold, bought a large amount of HPG
In this restructuring period, the HoSE-Index version 4.0 rules have officially come into effect, so the weight of the VN30 index portfolio will change significantly. Regarding the VN30 index, SSI Research said that because the HoSE Index version 4.0 rules add a limit on the capitalization weight of a group of stocks in the same industry of 40%, this unit estimates that the weight of the financial group in the VN30 index basket will decrease from the current level of 60% to 40%. Therefore, the weight of stocks in other industries will increase at a corresponding rate.
The threshold criteria for capitalization ratio limits are no longer too unfamiliar with the HoSE index set rules. Previously, this rule applied to a single stock was 10% and to a group of related stocks was 15%. Adding a limit on the capitalization ratio of a group of stocks in the same industry in the VN30 index basket contributes to stabilizing the industry structure and limiting the fact that one industry occupies too much of the index basket.
Among the ETFs on the market, there are currently 4 ETFs using the VN30 index as a reference, including DCVFMVN30 ETF, SSIAM VN30 ETF, KIM Growth VN30 ETF and MAFM VN30 ETF, with a total net asset value of about VND 9,100 billion as of March 14, 2025. The DCVFMVN30 ETF fund alone currently has a total asset value of about VND 6,200 billion. Specifically, since the beginning of 2025, the total fund asset value has decreased by 7.4%, NAV increased by 3%, and the net capital withdrawal value is VND 683 billion.
According to SSI Research's estimates, some stocks are estimated to be bought in large volumes by the above funds such as HPG (11.6 million shares), MWG (4.5 million shares), VIC (4.5 million shares). At the same time, on the selling side, financial stocks were sold the most, including stocks such as TCB (9.5 million shares), VPB (9.1 million shares) and ACB (8.3 million shares).
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