Billions of dollars poured in, liquidity highest in 8 months
The stock market yesterday (June 8) witnessed a volatile trading session, increasing in the morning then falling rapidly in the afternoon.
At the end of the session, the VN-Index fell 8.22 points to 1,101.32 points after rising sharply in the previous 5 sessions. Selling pressure increased sharply, while demand was also very large, causing liquidity to reach its highest level in 8 months, reaching more than 27,300 billion VND.
Most of the pillar stocks decreased, only Vietcombank (VCB), Hoa Phat (HPG), VietJet (VJC) remained relatively strong. Vietcombank and Hoa Phat stocks continued to break out and remained the focus of the market.
Vietcombank has been on a positive note after the bank announced it was preparing to pay a dividend of over 18% and increase its capital to over VND55,000 billion. More importantly, Vietcombank will sell about 5% of its shares through a private placement and raise at least USD600 million in new capital.
Vietcombank shares have officially returned to the threshold of 100,000 VND/share. The bank's capitalization has also reached nearly 20 billion USD, firmly holding the top position on the stock market.
Meanwhile, Hoa Phat announced positive information in sales activities and steel prices increased slightly.
However, most other pillar stocks, including the banking group, have decreased in price. Many real estate stocks have turned down after many consecutive increases, with some stocks increasing by 50-70% in a few weeks.
The falling index and soaring liquidity have led many investors to think of a “peak distribution” scenario. Some forecasts say that the time for stocks in the banking, securities, and steel groups has not yet come. The market is unlikely to go up.
However, the strong influx of billions of dollars has many people wondering what this signal indicates?
Mr. Tran Anh Tuan, Director of PSI Petroleum Securities Analysis Center, said that liquidity in the trading session on June 8 increased due to strong selling pressure in the afternoon, but also showed that there were many pending buy orders.
It is normal for those who bought at low prices or were “stuck” for the past year. It shows a change in shareholders. But the reality is that the market is showing signs of money coming in. Profit-taking pressure can cause the uptrend to slow down for a few days to absorb all the goods.
Ms. Tran Thi Khanh Hien, Director of Analysis, VNDirect Securities, also said that the good news is that money has not left the market in recent sessions. Money has been flowing into bank stocks for a few sessions, then into stocks and real estate.
There is no strong signal of support from the economy.
According to Ms. Hien, the outlook for production and business is not bright. Many small businesses and individuals have started investing in stocks to make a profit, similar to the Covid period.
The phenomenon of cash flow from one group of stocks to another has helped the VN-Index increase rapidly over the past week. And despite a decrease in the session on June 8, this index is still above the 200-day moving average MA200.
Mr. Tran Anh Tuan said that the recent cash flow into the market is domestic cash flow. When interest rates decrease, money will automatically find better profit opportunities. “The economy is not really bright yet. Big cash flows have not come in yet,” he said.
According to Mr. Anh Tuan, it may be a long time before money flows into the banking, securities, and steel groups. These are 3 cyclical industries (volatile according to market trends and have large capitalization). Money flowing into these 3 industries must be large cash flows. This has not happened yet.
Previously, BSC Securities experts also said that the time of "banks, stocks, steel" has not come yet.
In fact, in the context of falling interest rates in the economy, cash flow from individual investors may be returning to stocks, as short-term high-interest deposits mature.
According to data from the Vietnam Securities Depository (VSD), the number of domestic individual investor accounts increased by 104,624 units in May. This is the highest level in 9 months and nearly 5 times higher than in April.
Not only does the number of new accounts increase, but when the market is active, the buying and selling cycle will also be faster, and more people will prefer to "trade" to make a profit.
Currently, many investors are concerned that increased liquidity may be a sign of distribution and investors may be “stuck” at high prices. However, many experts believe that this possibility is low, as stock prices have fallen sharply since 2022.
In addition, the market has entered another phase when the State has policies to support the real estate and bond markets, leading to credit growth. The "ghost" of high inflation in the world has also gradually faded.
However, the possibility of a strong increase is also difficult when the group of "bank and steel stocks" is considered unable to break out due to the lack of strong support signals from the economy. Foreign investors have been net sellers for the past 2 months.
Mr. Phan Van Nhan, a broker at a securities company in Ho Chi Minh City, said that the general situation is still bad. The market has been rising strongly recently, so adjustments are normal.
Regarding the money market, VNDirect expects the average 12-month deposit interest rate to fall to 6.5%/year this year. The reason is weak credit demand due to slow economic growth and a gloomy real estate market. The government is boosting public investment, thereby pumping more money into the economy. The SBV still has room to reduce operating interest rates.
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