Analyst Harry Enten pointed out that public opinion polls currently show that the two US presidential candidates are very close to each other in terms of support rates, and every time there is a good signal for Vice President Kamala Harris, her opponent - former President Donald Trump also gains an advantage. Therefore, this year's race to the White House has many different potential scenarios.

Vì sao kết quả bầu cử tổng thống Mỹ 2024 hiện rất khó đoán? Ms. Harris (left) and Mr. Trump are chasing each other very closely in the opinion polls. Photo: BBC

One scenario being discussed is that Harris would easily win the Democratic-leaning “blue wall” states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. If Harris loses the “Sun Belt” battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina, then wins the three Great Lakes states, Nebraska’s 2nd District, and all the other states that went to President Joe Biden in the 2020 election, she would win the 270 electoral votes needed to become the next leader of the White House. The average polling results in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin show that the support rate between Harris and Trump is currently less than 1 point. If that is maintained until the general election on November 5, it will be the first time in at least 50 years that these three states have a vote difference of less than 1 point. The margins in those states have been tight since Harris officially replaced Biden in July. Neither Trump nor Harris has ever led in any of those states by more than 5 points, mirroring the same pattern in national polling. This is the first time in more than 60 years that no candidate has led by more than 5 points nationally at any point during the election season. According to CNN, many Republicans (GOP) are hoping that the narrow polling gap will point to a landslide victory for Trump next month. The former president has made significant progress compared to polls in 2016 and 2020. If successful again, Trump could easily capture more than 300 electoral votes to return to the White House. However, there is no guarantee that the poor polling results will benefit Trump. The US has not seen three consecutive presidential elections in which the same party has benefited from polling losses at the state level. Polls in battleground states are often inaccurate. The average polling error has been 3.4 points since 1972, and 5% of polls have been off by more than 9.4 points. Meanwhile, just 1 point of inaccurate polling in key battleground states can signal a landslide victory. Polling that underestimates a candidate’s support can be influenced by macro trends. President Biden’s approval rating is currently low. No sitting US president’s party has ever won a second term with such low voter approval ratings. Still, Mr. Trump is unlikely to capitalize on those advantages. If he wins, he will be the second-least popular candidate since the advent of national pre-election polling in the mid-20th century. The only person with lower polling ratings than his opponent who ended up winning the White House was Trump in 2016. Trump’s GOP has underperformed in the 2022 midterms, even as many macro indicators point in their direction. The trends are also unclear in terms of party registration. Trump’s GOP has won more votes than Harris’s Democrats in all the key battleground states over the past four years. But it’s unclear how many GOP members will vote for Trump. According to the most recent New York Times/Siena College poll in the battleground state of Pennsylvania, Harris is likely to win more Democratic votes than Trump does GOP votes. So, with registered Democrats outnumbering GOP members in Pennsylvania, Harris is likely to win the state. The presidential race is so tight that the American electorate appears to have changed its voting patterns since four years ago. Trump is on track to have the highest support among black voters for a GOP presidential candidate, especially among young black voters. By contrast, Harris appears to be doing better with white, female voters than any Democratic presidential candidate this century. While her gains are not as big as Trump’s among black voters, white women make up a much larger share of the electorate. So the outcome could be a “tie” on a large scale. This also means that the 2024 US presidential election is likely to depend on a small number of undecided voters. Notably, more than two-thirds of likely voters say this is the most important election of their lives, with 72% of Trump supporters and 70% of Harris supporters among them. Five percent of voters are still undecided, but only nearly a quarter of them consider the upcoming vote the most important of their lives. These factors make predicting the winner of the race for the White House in November more difficult than ever.

Vietnamnet.vn

Source: https://vietnamnet.vn/vi-sao-ket-qua-bau-cu-tong-thong-my-2024-hien-rat-kho-doan-2334071.html