Analyst Harry Enten pointed out that public opinion polls currently show that the two US presidential candidates are very close in terms of support, and every time there is a good signal for Vice President Kamala Harris, her opponent - former President Donald Trump also gains an advantage. Therefore, this year's race to the White House has many different potential scenarios.
Ms. Harris (left) and Mr. Trump are chasing each other very closely in opinion polls. Photo: BBC
One scenario being discussed is that Harris would easily win the Democratic-leaning “blue wall” states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. If Harris loses the “Sun Belt” battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina, then wins the three Great Lakes states, Nebraska’s 2nd District and all the other states that went to President Joe Biden in the 2020 election, she would win the 270 electoral votes needed to become the next leader of the White House. The average polls in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin show that the support rate between Harris and Trump is currently less than 1 point. If that holds until the general election on November 5, it will be the first time in at least 50 years that these three states have a vote difference of less than 1 point. The margins in those states have been tight since Harris officially replaced Biden in July. Neither Trump nor Harris has ever led by more than 5 points in any of them, mirroring the same pattern in national polling. It’s the first time in more than 60 years that no candidate has led by more than 5 points nationally at any point during the election season. Many Republicans are hoping that the narrow polling gap will point to a landslide victory for Trump next month, according to CNN. The former president has made significant progress compared to polls in 2016 and 2020. If he does, Trump could easily capture the 300-plus electoral votes needed to return to the White House. But there’s no guarantee that the polls will be in Trump’s favor. The United States has not seen three consecutive presidential elections in which the same party has benefited from polling losses at the state level. Polls in battleground states are often inaccurate. Polls have been off by an average of 3.4 points since 1972, and 5% of polls have been off by more than 9.4 points. Meanwhile, a 1-point error in key battleground states can signal a landslide victory. Polling that underestimates a candidate’s support can be influenced by macro trends. President Biden’s approval rating is currently low. No sitting US president’s party has ever won a second term with such a low approval rating. Still, Mr. Trump is unlikely to be able to capitalize on those advantages. If he wins, he would be the second-least popular candidate since the advent of national polling in the mid-20th century. The only person who polled lower than his opponent but ended up winning the White House was Trump in 2016. Trump’s GOP has underperformed in the 2022 midterms, even as many macro indicators point in their direction. The trends are also unclear in terms of party registration. Trump’s GOP has won more votes than Harris’s Democrats in every key battleground state over the past four years. But it’s unclear how many GOP members will vote for Trump. According to the most recent New York Times/Siena College poll of battleground Pennsylvania, Harris is likely to win more votes among Democrats than Trump among GOP voters. So, with registered Democrats outnumbering GOP members in Pennsylvania, Harris is likely to win the state. The presidential race is tight, and the American electorate appears to have changed its voting patterns since four years ago. Trump is on track to have the highest support among black voters for a GOP presidential candidate, especially among young blacks. By contrast, Harris appears to be doing better with white, female voters than any Democratic presidential candidate this century. While her gains are not as big as Trump’s among black voters, white women make up a much larger share of the electorate. So the outcome could be a “tie” on a large scale. That means the 2024 presidential election could hinge on a small number of undecided voters. Notably, more than two-thirds of likely voters say this is the most important election of their lifetime, with 72% of Trump supporters and 70% of Harris supporters among them. Five percent of voters are still undecided, but just under a quarter of them consider the upcoming vote the most important of their lifetime. These factors make predicting the winner of the race for the White House in November more difficult than ever.
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