Iran and Israel are increasingly heading toward a direct conflict. Tehran is clearly worried about Israel's all-in attitude and is eager to save face with its proxies.
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| Israel attacks Khiam, Lebanon on October 3. (Source: AFP) |
In a recent commentary on Asia Times , international relations analyst Aaron Pilkington, a member of the Center for Middle East Studies, University of Denver (USA), commented on the current confrontation between Israel and Iran.
This expert believes that Israel and Iran have fallen into a state of war. Although the conflict between the two sides has been taking place silently and quietly in the "darkness" for decades, recent activities have changed the nature of the crisis, making the possibility of easing tensions unpredictable.
On October 1, Iran launched a large-scale attack on Israel, considered a retaliation for Israel's assassination of two important leaders, Ismail Haniyeh of the Islamic movement Hamas and Hassan Nasrallah of the Hezbollah force. This was Tehran's second attack within 6 months.
According to US experts, Israel's immediate military response afterwards - an airstrike targeting Iran's only advanced air defense system in Isfahan province - was a calculated move.
The back-and-forth attacks in April demonstrated that both Israel and Iran wanted to de-escalate tensions rather than engage in continued open warfare.
Amid the decline of Hamas' capabilities and leadership in the Gaza Strip, Israel's military leadership declared in June that it was "ready to confront" the Iran-backed Hezbollah force in Lebanon.
Israel confidently changes direction
Expert Aaron Pilkington said that Israel's shift from Gaza to Lebanon coincided with the assassination of Hamas political leader Haniyeh on July 31 while he was in Tehran.
Although Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei promised a “strong response” to Israel, Tehran had yet to take any action as of September.
This has left many Middle East analysts skeptical about Iran's ability to actually retaliate against Israel and the significance of Khamenei's commitments to proxy forces.
If Iran’s leadership had chosen “restraint” after the assassination, it would not have reacted the same way to Israel’s multi-phase campaign against Hezbollah in mid-September.
Iran hopes to slow and perhaps even reverse Israel's gains against Hezbollah, especially as Israel begins ground operations targeting southern Lebanon.
Of course, the Israeli military now has to deal with the most capable guerrilla force in the world – a force that performed so effectively in the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war.
However, the ability to create surprise and eliminate key Hezbollah leaders demonstrates that Israel's strategy and operational planning capabilities are far superior to Hezbollah's.
And according to expert Aaron Pilkington, this is a huge shock to Iran's "crown jewel" in the "Axis of Resistance" (Iran's network of proxy forces).
In this context, Iran's retaliatory attack on October 1 can be seen as an attempt to buy time for Hezbollah to appoint a replacement leader, reorganize and prepare to counter Israeli attacks.
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| Hundreds of missiles fired from Iran into Israeli territory on October 1. (Source: Arab News) |
Iran cannot stand by and watch.
Expert Aaron Pilkington commented that the retaliation also aims to help Iran save face, especially with forces in its proxy network.
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) played a key role in Hamas' attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. Although Iran claimed to have received no advance information about the attack, support from the IRGC is seen as a key factor in encouraging Hamas' actions.
| Expert Aaron Pilkington: Retaliation helps Iran save face, especially with forces in its proxy network. |
Since then, Hamas has received little timely support from Tehran. Expert Aaron Pilkington said that this has weakened Hamas, making it unable to organize effective offensive campaigns. Israeli military leaders assert that Hamas has been defeated.
When the conflict in Gaza broke out, the IRGC was absent, says expert Aaron Pilkington. Now, as Israel turns its attention to Lebanon and makes some initial gains against Hezbollah, Iran cannot stand idly by for two main reasons.
First , a year of fighting in Gaza has shown that Israel is willing to do whatever it takes to eliminate the threat along its border, including international political pressure or taking action inside Iranian territory. Second, Iran’s proxies elsewhere are watching to see whether Tehran will continue to support them or abandon them, as it did with Hamas.
Deterrence tactics work
According to expert Aaron Pilkington, Tehran is facing pressure to restore its deterrence capabilities, which is reflected in two key strategies: its network of proxy forces and its long-range arsenal. Iran uses ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and attack-capable drones to defend its territory.
The strategy aims to deter attacks from adversaries in two ways: One is to threaten Israel and US allies in the region through attacks by proxy forces; the other is to create other targets that adversaries can attack without directly harming Iran.
However, Israel's weakening of Hamas and increased operations against Hezbollah are threatening Iran's deterrence, something the Islamic Republic's leaders see as an unacceptable risk.
These intertwined emergency orders may have prompted Iranian leaders to launch a second major direct missile attack on Israel on October 1, argues Aaron Pilkington.
Iran claimed that 90% of its missiles hit their targets, while Israel and the US said the attack was “failed and ineffective”, although unverified video showed some missiles exploding after hitting the ground in Israel.
However, this conflict is certainly not over. Israel will not stop its operations in Lebanon until it has achieved its goal of securing its borders. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has pledged to retaliate against Iran for the recent attack.
Meanwhile, the IRGC leader also threatened that if Israel responds militarily to the October 1 attack, Iran will retaliate with “destructive and crushing” attacks.
Expert Aaron Pilkington commented that the military moves of both sides show that neither side will back down. Israel's next move will determine the course of the conflict with Iran.
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