The "big bet" failed, LDP witnessed the first "departure", what will happen to Mr. Ishiba's government after the "rejections"?

After the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Japan's ruling coalition suffered their worst election results since 2009 in the Lower House election, an LDP member announced his resignation.

Officials count votes in Japan's House of Representatives election on October 27. (Source: Reuters)

According to AFP news agency, on October 28, LDP Election Commission Chairman Koizumi Shinjiro resigned after the party lost its majority in the Lower House in last weekend's election. This is the worst result the LDP has received since 2009.

Mr. Shinjiro Koizumi is the son of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. Japanese media quoted Mr. Shinjiro Koizumi as saying that he wanted to "take responsibility" for the party's election results.

Wrong bet?

Mr. Koizumi's decision to resign came after the final vote count was announced, showing that Japan's ruling coalition, consisting of the LDP and the Komeito Party, had officially lost its majority in the House of Representatives.

The ruling coalition won only 215 out of 465 seats, failing to reach its target of 233 seats and much lower than the 288 seats in the previous term.

Meanwhile, the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party (CDPJ) achieved great success with 148 seats, an increase of 50 seats compared to the previous term's 98 seats. The Democratic Party for the People (DPP) also achieved significant success in this election when it increased by 11 seats compared to the previous term, from 7 seats to 28 seats.

The Japan Innovation Party (JIP) won 38 seats, down 5 seats from the previous term. The Japanese Communist Party won 8 seats, down from 10 seats in the previous term.

With this result, incumbent Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru is unlikely to fulfill an important promise to initiate a proposal to amend the Constitution, which requires majority approval in the Lower House, and poses a difficult challenge for him in the context of trying to rebuild the LDP.

Japan's Kyodo news agency commented: "Prime Minister Ishiba's bet on dissolving the House of Representatives just eight days after taking office on October 1 and calling a general election has backfired."

Uncertain future

Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru's government faces an uncertain future as it seeks a new, solid ruling coalition or manages a minority government. (Japan News)

This "big bet" forces the ruling coalition to seek outside support to stay in power, whether from independent lawmakers or opposition parties, or to govern as a minority coalition.

However, according to media reports, the DPP and JIP have explicitly rejected the possibility of joining an LDP-led coalition. DPP Chairman Tamaki Yuichiro stated, "We are willing to cooperate with parties that have policies to support the workforce, but neither the LDP nor the CDPJ are like that."

Meanwhile, when asked about cooperating with other parties to form a government, CDPJ Chairman Noda Yoshihiko said: "If there is a political party that believes that the LDP-Komei government cannot continue to exist, we certainly want to cooperate with them."

Reuters news agency commented that the above results could force the parties to enter into divisive power-sharing agreements, potentially leading to political instability in the Land of the Rising Sun.

Within 30 days of the election, a special session of the Diet will be convened to elect the Prime Minister as prescribed by the Japanese Constitution.

Speaking after the results of the Lower House election, Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru expressed his commitment to strongly reform the LDP, stressing that the ruling party must be "reborn" and seriously reviewing the results of this "difficult" election in the context of the LDP's political fundraising scandal eroding public trust.

However, Mr. Ishiba also reaffirmed his commitment to continue leading the government.

The general election came after Mr Ishiba dissolved the lower house of parliament to seek a new term. It is the quickest election after a new prime minister took office since the end of World War II.

According to NHK 's statistics, the voter turnout for this Lower House election is estimated at 53.84% nationwide, lower than the 55.93% turnout in the most recent Lower House election in 2021.

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