Faced with potential challenges from Donald Trump's second term, many countries, including China and Japan, have taken measures to minimize unwanted impacts.
Many countries launch a series of policies
Several countries have seen their currencies depreciate sharply after Donald Trump won the 2025-2029 US presidential election. In some countries, the economic outlook is less bright with potential challenges from a second Trump term.
According to SCMP, on November 21, China’s Ministry of Commerce announced that it would support the export industry with policies to deal with external trade barriers. These are measures that Beijing believes the upcoming Donald Trump administration will impose on China.
The announcement said China's Ministry of Commerce will help businesses "proactively respond to unreasonable foreign trade restrictions" and "create a good external environment for exports."
Accordingly, the Ministry of Commerce of China will promote the expansion of export credit insurance coverage and provide more financial support for enterprises engaged in international trade. China will also encourage financial institutions to provide more products to support enterprises in managing foreign exchange risks. At the same time, it will strengthen macro-policy regulation to keep the renminbi (RMB) "relatively stable".
The move comes after US President-elect Donald Trump announced he would impose a 60% import tax on all goods from China. Surveys show that early next year, the Trump administration could impose a nearly 40% import tax on products from China, which could reduce China's GDP by 1%.
Meanwhile, according to JapanTimes, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba will announce a large-scale economic stimulus package worth 21.9 trillion yen (equivalent to 140 billion USD) to address many of the country's economic challenges.
Earlier, on November 18, Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said that the Japanese yen had fallen sharply after Mr. Trump won the election. Japan faces inflationary pressures that will accelerate rapidly.
The support package will be implemented in fiscal 2024 to help people cope with rising prices, as well as provide cash support to low-income households. The Japanese government will continue to subsidize fuel for people from the beginning of next year, expand the scale of tax exemptions for workers and businesses...
Thailand has also just announced a plan to give 10,000 baht (about $290) in cash to about 4 million elderly people during the Lunar New Year holiday. Financial support for other groups will follow, between April and June 2025. In total, the support package for about 45 million people is worth nearly $14 billion. The program aims to support low-income and disadvantaged people while stimulating consumption when the economy is stagnant due to "both domestic and international factors".
Bloomberg reported that Thailand risks missing its 2025 growth target and the baht weakening if Trump imposes tariffs on imports as promised. Subsidizing people is one of many economic support solutions.
How is the world economy?
It can be seen that Beijing's move to support export enterprises took place in the context of the Chinese economy not yet brightening up, industrial output in October still increased slowly, real estate continued to decline... even though China had previously had 2 huge stimulus packages through monetary policy (at the end of September) and fiscal policy in November.
Pressure on the world’s second largest economy is growing as Mr. Trump returns to the White House in less than two months, with a policy of imposing heavy tariffs on Chinese goods. Experts predict that China’s economy will slow down again in the second half of 2025.
Recently, international media reported that Chinese manufacturers are accelerating the relocation of factories to Southeast Asia as well as other locations. Many exporters in the world’s second largest economy have prepared for the scenario of trade disruption.
China has also actively improved relations with the European Union, India, Australia, some Latin American and African countries, etc. Exports to the US have tended to decrease gradually, down to only about 15% of total export turnover, instead of 18% in the previous decade.
However, forecasts show that China's economic growth will still face difficulties from 2025. Efforts to build a strong yuan to play a larger role in global trade will probably not have much effect in Mr. Trump's second term.
For Japan, the concern remains a sharp fall in the yen while the economy remains weak. There have been recent concerns that the Japanese government may pressure the BoJ to slow its rate hikes to support the economy. However, concerns about inflation have increased.
According to the forecast of Goldman Sachs Bank (USA), the Eurozone economy will fall to only 0.8% in 2025 due to the impact of Mr. Trump's policies. Mr. Trump is expected to apply new tariffs on this area.
Also according to Goldman Sachs, the US economy will grow strongly, reaching 2.5% in 2025, far exceeding Bloomberg's forecast of 1.9%. Thereby, helping global GDP grow by 2.7%.
For Vietnam, there are also many potential challenges from Mr. Trump’s second term. However, many experts expect there will also be opportunities for the Vietnamese economy and businesses.
The first challenge for Vietnam is the strengthening of the USD, which has weakened the VND, as it has for more than 2 weeks since Mr. Trump was elected. Capital flows may continue to flow back to the US. High tariffs are also a concern for exporting businesses. However, the important thing is how different the tariffs that the US imposes on other countries are.
This can also be seen as an opportunity for Vietnam, as assessed by Michael Kokalari, Director of Macroeconomic Analysis and Market Research at VinaCapital. Mr. Trump's victory will not derail Vietnam's economic growth.
Source: https://vietnamnet.vn/ung-pho-donald-trump-trung-quoc-va-nhat-ban-tung-loat-chinh-sach-tuc-thoi-2344800.html
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