Ukrainian officials spoke out about the long-awaited counterattack, which further prompted Russia to beef up its defenses and deploy response plans.
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| Ukraine's counterattack has a decisive impact on the conflict situation. (Source: AP) |
Not sure when or where, but definitely
In an interview with the press over the weekend, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Oleksiy Danilov, one of the key figures in President Volodymyr Zelensky's cabinet, said Ukraine was ready to launch a long-awaited counterattack against the Russian army.
Asked whether the Ukrainian military was ready for a counterattack, Mr. Danilov replied: “We are always ready... It is not a question of time.”
Mr Danilov did not give a specific date but said a counter-offensive to retake territory from Russian occupation forces could begin “tomorrow, the day after tomorrow or in a week”, when military commanders calculate “the best result can be achieved at that time”.
Ukrainian officials denied that a counterattack had begun, saying that “destroying Russian control centers and military equipment” had been the task of the Ukrainian armed forces since February 24, 2022. “We have no days off in this conflict,” Danilov said.
Although Mr. Danilov did not mention the exact timing of the counterattack, earlier, speaking at the Kiev Security Forum via video link from the US State Department on May 25, US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland said that Washington had been helping Kiev plan a "counterattack" against Russia for nearly half a year.
Ms Nuland also said the counterattack “is likely to start and occur at the same time” as events such as the NATO summit in Lithuania, scheduled for July 11.
Meanwhile, in an interview with the press on May 26, Mr. Ben Hodges, a former US military general, said that militarily, Ukraine is in the stage of forming a counterattack.
General Ben Hodges hopes the counteroffensive will lead to further actions around Bakhmut and a push to regain territory around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant to avoid any potential disaster.
He predicted that the Ukrainian army would likely launch a campaign south to the Sea of Azov to cut off Russian supply lines to retake Crimea.
General Ben Hodges also added that Russia could have predicted this and prepared defenses on all sides, but the Ukrainians could carry out some operations that even he never thought of.
Kiev's determination and Moscow's preparation
In an interview with the press on May 28, Mr. Andrei Kelin, Russian Ambassador to the UK, warned of a “new dimension” in the conflict.
At the same time as Mr. Oleksiy Danilov's speech, Russia launched the "strongest" attack by drones on the capital Kiev.
In a speech after the attack, Ukrainian President Zelensky said: “Most of the destruction was prevented and people who could have died were saved.”
Kiev's military authorities said "more than 40 Russian drones were destroyed by air defence systems" in "the most significant drone attack on the capital".
This Russian attack and others this month are believed to send a warning signal to the US and its allies about giving the green light to provide F-16s to Ukraine, a move that Russia believes could lead to an escalation of the conflict.
Russia now uses powerful jamming systems such as the Shipovnik-Aero, which operate 7-10 km behind the front line. Manuals captured by Ukraine from Russian positions show that Russia’s new tactic is: small groups of 2-5 people scout the Ukrainian side, then artillery and other units attack.
Russia has scattered its command posts, or placed them in underground bunkers out of range of its artillery. And when communicating, they use Ukraine’s telecommunications network to avoid being located. Instead of being fixed and reloaded, the guns are now moved to positions where they have ammunition, making them harder to destroy.
Furthermore, the tanks were primarily for support rather than attack, and were camouflaged to block thermal sensors and avoid Javelin missiles. Engineers, one of Russia's strongest military branches, had erected strong defensive barriers, making counterattacks difficult.
As for Ukraine's defense against counterattacks, General Ben Hodges said that for months, Russian engineers and soldiers have been setting up anti-tank barriers, dragon teeth, digging trenches and laying mines, but this does not mean that the Ukrainian army cannot overcome them.
“Those trenches, I look at the pictures and the videos, and almost none of them have any roofs on them, so they’re basically open trenches,” he stressed. General Ben Hodges said that this could be a weakness in Russia’s tactics.
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