At the end of the trading week, the exchange rate listed at commercial banks was commonly at 25,730 VND/USD (buy) - 26,120 VND/USD (sell), an increase of about 200 VND compared to the previous week. In the free market, the exchange rate also increased sharply by 265 VND, trading at 26,285 VND/USD (buy) - 26,385 VND/USD (sell).
The exchange rate on the free market also had similar developments, even more tense because this market reacted strongly to economic fluctuations. The exchange rate on the free market was at 26,385 VND/USD.
In addition, the current relative uncertainty of the global economy has caused safe-haven assets such as gold to increase sharply. The world gold price last week surpassed $3,300/ounce for the first time, setting a new peak and recording the strongest increase in the past 5 years.
The world market is in the opposite direction when the USD price weakens, the DXY index, a measure of the strength of the USD compared to a basket of major currencies, falls below the 100 point mark, the lowest in the past 3 years. Accordingly, DXY is at 99.31 points, the US Federal Reserve (FED) has no plans to cut interest rates, reflecting the decline in confidence in the USD due to trade tensions rekindling investors' risk-averse psychology.
According to analysts at KB Securities Vietnam, pressure on the exchange rate has increased significantly since the US announced its reciprocal tax policy. The exchange rate at times reached the ceiling set by the State Bank, reflecting concerns about the possibility of a decline in exports to the US and the indirect consequences on foreign direct investment flows in the coming time.
It is forecasted that the USD/VND exchange rate may increase by approximately 4% compared to the end of 2024. Exchange rate developments in the coming time will continue to depend on two main factors: Supply and demand of foreign currencies, especially foreign direct investment flows, trade balance and remittances; the movement trend of the USD in the international market, shown through the DXY index.
The State Bank's leaders affirmed that the State Bank will commit to supporting liquidity for banks to stabilize interest rates. Specifically, the State Bank stopped issuing treasury bills a month ago, instead increasing net injection through forward purchases, with a volume of VND63,678.83 billion last week.
In addition, VND 111,448.95 billion is circulating on the mortgage channel; there are no treasury bills circulating on the market, but the volume of mortgage loans maturing is VND 72,035.4 billion.
Overall, last week, the net amount of money withdrawn from the system was VND8,356.67 billion, in contrast to the net injection last week (VND23,920.25 billion).
Source: https://hanoimoi.vn/ty-gia-usd-vnd-co-the-tang-xap-xi-4-so-voi-cuoi-nam-2024-699560.html
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