Increasingly critical of Trump, Ms. Haley faces the risk of being shunned by the former president and many Republican members if she is defeated in the primary round.
Nikki Haley, the former US ambassador to the United Nations, has just suffered a series of consecutive defeats against her opponent Donald Trump in the Republican primary round, losing in three states including Michigan, Idaho and Missouri on March 2. These victories bring Mr. Trump closer to the Republican presidential ticket, while the prospects for Ms. Haley become more uncertain.
Haley has stepped up her criticism of Trump in recent weeks as the primary race heats up. She has also vowed not to drop out until at least Super Tuesday on March 5, when 16 states and territories vote simultaneously. This is seen as Haley’s last chance to continue to hope to defeat Trump.
When asked recently by a reporter whether she intended to continue criticizing the direction of the Republican Party under Mr. Trump even after leaving the race after Super Tuesday, Ms. Haley paused.
“I don't know,” she said. “I mean, I haven't thought about it.”
Former US Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley speaks in Concord, New Hampshire on January 23. Photo: AP
Haley argued that the Republican Party under Trump is in bad shape and unable to expand its influence. However, she is uncertain whether she will continue to fight for the Republican Party after ending her nomination race.
Candidates who lose in the primary often face a tough time afterward. Many drop out of politics, fade into obscurity, serve on corporate or nonprofit boards, or go into the media.
However, Haley’s future in the Republican Party is even more uncertain if she loses to Trump. After describing Trump as completely unfit for the presidency and leaving the MAGA world, Haley’s political future will depend on whether Trump is willing to pardon her.
“If she loses, she will need Trump’s support to revive her position in the Republican Party,” said Jason Roe, a former campaign adviser to Senator Marco Rubio.
Roe said Haley still has a chance to mend ties with Trump, if the former South Carolina governor expresses support and loyalty to the former president. "If she continues to criticize Trump after the election, I think she will end up like Liz Cheney," Roe said, referring to the congresswoman who was expelled from the Republican Party and lost her seat in Congress for criticizing Trump.
Former adviser Roe said that if Haley chooses to support Mr. Trump, her future could be bright with the support of the Republican Party establishment. "It's not a bad life, it's a lot of benefits. It's not a bad consolation prize for her," Roe said.
The incentive for Haley to stay in the race is fading, and the former South Carolina governor has pledged to campaign only until Super Tuesday. Even with a surprise Trump exit, few Republicans think Haley will be the choice of a majority of delegates at a contentious national convention.
Haley has been relentless in her criticism of Trump, even more inflammatory than the former president and his MAGA world. Yet state after state, Republican voters have chosen Trump.
“She shot herself in the foot,” said Andy Sabin, a prominent Republican donor who supported Haley. Sabin said Haley should have dropped out of the race immediately after losing in New Hampshire, calling her a “greedy who got punished.”
“I guess a lot of people are like, ‘What is she trying to prove?’ She ran in Michigan and lost by 40 percentage points,” he said.
Mike Murphy, a veteran Republican strategist, also said Haley should leave the race early. “If she stays any longer, she’ll end up like Chris Christie,” Murphy said, referring to the former New Jersey governor who left the race in January after becoming a vocal critic of Mr. Trump.
Before announcing her withdrawal from the race, Christie predicted that Haley would "fail miserably" in her bid to become the Republican presidential nominee.
Haley rejected any comparisons between herself and Christie. "I'm not anti-Trump. If I was, I'd be Christie," she said.
Rob Godfrey, Haley's former aide, hopes that after the race is over, she will spend more time with her family and return to fighting for policy initiatives after a period of intense campaigning. Haley will have to decide whether she wants to spend the rest of the year campaigning for candidates or Trump.
"She's never lost before and has to see if the person who beats her is someone she wants to work with. I think the relaxation and reflection period after the primary campaign is over may be a little longer for Haley," Godfrey said.
Former US President Donald Trump in Rock Hill, South Carolina, on February 23. Photo: AFP
Many observers believe that the best-case scenario for Haley is that Trump loses to his Democratic opponent, President Joe Biden, in the November election. However, if the Republican Party remains under Trump’s control after the 2024 election, Haley will likely be ostracized by the party. Any Republican who has criticized Trump will face a similar fate.
The only benefit Haley could gain by continuing her campaign would be a career change away from being a Republican, according to Joe Walsh, a former congressman who challenged Trump in the 2020 Republican primary. Walsh announced his departure from the party after running for president.
“The party will have no room for her in 2028, because the party's base will not change from now,” he said.
Former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, who ran in the 2012 Republican primary, hopes “Trump will ask Haley to be his vice president.” However, this scenario is something both Trump and Haley admit is unlikely.
Pawlenty is more optimistic about Haley’s post-election future. “Her campaign has exceeded expectations and has put her in the 2028 favorites. If she wants to keep that chance, she should spend the next four years maintaining and expanding her network and improving her political profile,” he said.
Mitt Romney, for example, dropped out of the race for the nomination shortly after Super Tuesday in 2008 and then became the party’s nominee in 2012. After his first presidential campaign, Romney and his team worked hard to stay in touch with party leaders and activists across the country, according to Kevin Madden, a former Romney campaign adviser.
"I hope Haley takes the same approach. The campaign is a worthwhile investment in Nikki Haley's political profile," Madden said. "I rarely say anything for certain in politics because it's such a volatile field. But Nikki Haley will be president one day."
Thanh Tam (According to Politico, AFP, Reuters )
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