From Earth Summit to COP28

The devastating impacts of climate change have long been warned about, and countries around the world have made global efforts to prevent them. However, what humanity has committed to and done so far is not strong enough to slow down this process.

Climate change has caused unforeseen consequences. (Illustrative image. Source: triptych)

Faced with the threats of climate change, the United Nations (UN), with its two main specialized agencies, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), has brought together many scientists and experts worldwide to discuss and agree on the need for an international climate convention to provide a legal basis for responding to the negative developments that are unfolding.

Long journey

On May 9, 1992, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), aiming to stabilize greenhouse gas emissions and prevent excessive human intervention in the environment, was approved at UN headquarters in New York, USA, after a lengthy drafting process.

The UNFCCC began negotiations at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED), also known as the Earth Summit, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, from June 3-14, 1992. However, the initial UNFCCC did not impose binding greenhouse gas emission limits on individual countries and did not establish specific enforcement mechanisms. Instead, the Convention provided a framework for negotiating treaties or protocols that set limits and binding requirements on greenhouse gas emissions. The UNFCCC was opened for signatory parties on May 9, 1992, and entered into force on March 21, 1994. To date, the UNFCCC has 198 participating parties, including Vietnam, which joined on June 11, 1992.

Since 1995, the Parties to the Convention have met annually at the Conference of Parties (COP) to assess progress in addressing climate change under the UNFCCC agreement. The first COP was held in Berlin, Germany. In 1997, the Convention took a significant step forward with the signing of the Kyoto Protocol at COP3 in Japan. The Kyoto Protocol requires participating countries to commit to achieving specific greenhouse gas emission targets defined for each country. Officially entering into force in February 2005, by February 2009, 184 countries had joined the Kyoto Protocol. Vietnam signed the Protocol on December 3, 1998, and ratified it on September 25, 2002.

The Kyoto Protocol is considered one of the precursors to the concept of "climate diplomacy ," as the complexities of climate change and their consequences significantly impact international relations. Industrialized and developed countries are considered the main "culprits" causing climate change, but developing countries bear the heaviest consequences. While developed countries have committed to leading the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions under the Protocol, in reality, they have found many ways to evade and delay ratification and implementation. The United States, which accounts for 25% of greenhouse gas emissions, has not ratified the Kyoto Protocol, arguing that it would harm its economy.

Since 2009, the parties to the UNFCCC have begun considering an environmental agreement with more specific legal obligations to replace the Kyoto Protocol, which expired in 2012 (later extended until 2020). At COP16 in Cancun, Mexico, in 2010, the parties adopted a joint declaration stating that future global warming should be limited to below 2°C above pre-industrial levels. However, after much debate and tense negotiations due to conflicts of interest, the parties have not been able to produce a more progressive text to replace the Kyoto Protocol.

On December 12, 2015, after numerous rounds of negotiations, the Paris Agreement on climate change was finally adopted at COP21 in Paris (France) and came into effect on November 4, 2016, marking a breakthrough in efforts to curb global warming. The agreement maintained the goal of limiting global warming to below 2°C and aimed for a more ambitious target of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The agreement stipulated that developed countries would mobilize at least $100 billion annually (from the date of its entry into force) until 2020 to assist developing countries. However, this goal was not achieved.

Quite a few ups and downs.

Since COP21, the world has experienced a long journey with many ups and downs in realizing the goals of the Paris Agreement. At COP22 in Morocco in 2016, the participating parties adopted a preliminary plan for implementing the Paris Agreement. At COP23 in Bonn, Germany in December 2017, the parties agreed to uphold the ambitious commitments achieved in France, despite the US announcement of its withdrawal from the Paris Agreement in November 2019.

At COP24 in Poland in 2018, the parties overcame numerous disagreements to agree on an agenda for implementing the Paris Agreement. However, 2019 saw a setback in the fight against climate change when the US officially withdrew from the Paris Agreement. By COP25 in Madrid, Spain, the participating parties were again divided on responsibility for reducing greenhouse gas emissions…

Hopes were pinned on COP26 in Glasgow, UK, in November 2021 (postponed a year due to Covid-19). All 197 parties to the UNFCCC reaffirmed their commitment to limiting global temperature increase to 1.5°C. This goal requires a 45% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2030 compared to 2010 levels and zero emissions by mid-century, as well as significant reductions in other greenhouse gas emissions.

The Glasgow Commodity Agreement urges developed countries to quickly achieve the $100 billion target set at the 2015 Paris Conference, as well as committing to doubling climate change adaptation funding for developing countries compared to 2019 levels by 2025, emphasizing the importance of transparency in implementing commitments. At COP26, more than 100 countries committed to ending deforestation by 2030. Nearly 100 countries committed to reducing methane emissions by 30% by 2030, and 40 countries, including Vietnam, committed to phasing out coal-fired power plants…

Notably, at COP26, the US and China issued a joint statement on climate change, committing to cooperate towards achieving net-zero emissions, addressing methane emissions, transitioning to clean energy, and reducing carbon emissions. This agreement between the world's two largest emitters is seen as a crucial step towards achieving the goal of limiting global temperature increase to 1.5°C.

COP26 witnessed the commitment of 450 financial institutions, managing total assets worth $130 trillion, equivalent to 40% of global private assets, to use investment capital to support clean technologies such as renewable energy and to phase out financing for fossil fuel industries…

From commitment to practice

It can be said that the Paris Agreement reached at COP21 and the new commitments at COP26 demonstrate the world's significant efforts in the fight against global climate change. However, how to implement it is a long story. The gap between the goals and commitments on paper and the current reality is immense. Scientists warn that climate change poses a serious threat to life on Earth, with natural disasters and catastrophes caused by climate change increasing fivefold compared to 50 years ago.

Many climate records in 2023 differed significantly from previously recorded records, particularly ocean temperatures, which absorb almost all of the excess heat from human-caused air pollution. Prior to 2023, days with global average temperatures exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels were rare. However, from the beginning of 2023 to mid-September, there were 38 days with temperatures exceeding pre-industrial records. The European Union's Copernicus climate monitoring agency stated that July, August, and September 2023 were the hottest months on record and possibly the hottest in the last 120,000 years.

Research shows that if the Earth's surface temperature rises by 2°C compared to pre-industrial levels, approximately 750 million people could face a week each year experiencing hot, humid weather conditions that could be fatal. If the temperature increase is 3°C, the number of people facing this risk would rise to over 1.5 billion. Furthermore, extreme weather events caused by climate change are already causing an average annual loss of $143 billion to the global economy, including human losses ($90 billion) and economic damage ($53 billion).

Against this backdrop, Johan Rockstrom, Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, believes that the upcoming COP28 in the UAE is the last chance to make “credible commitments to begin cutting CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use.” Rockstrom urged major economies, including the US, India, China, and the EU, to step up efforts to address the climate crisis, as the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C is “non-negotiable.”

French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius warned at COP21 that we only have one Earth to live on. We cannot have a “plan B” for climate change because humanity does not have a “planet B”.

Source: https://baoquocte.vn/tu-thuong-dinh-trai-dat-den-cop28-251462.html