Many experts and scholars, despite their different perspectives, agree on the argument that the conflicts in Ukraine and the Gaza Strip will, sooner or later, end at the negotiating table.
However, up to now, the path to peace is still arduous and distant, and it is not known where to resolve the confusion. In that context, remembering the event of negotiating and signing the Geneva Agreement exactly 70 years ago...
 |
| From the Geneva Accords, thinking about the path to peace in the world today. (Source: Getty Images) |
War for peace
If we illustrate Vietnamese history up to the end of the 20th century, almost every page has pictures of arrows and guns. Having gone through many resistance wars against foreign rule and invasion, more than anyone else, the Vietnamese people understand the price of peace, always yearning for peace associated with independence and freedom.
Following the policy of “peace for progress”, on March 6, 1946, Vietnam signed the Preliminary Agreement, accepting “to be a free country within the French Union…”, agreeing to let 15,000 French troops replace the Chiang Kai-shek army. More than 6 months later, to save peace, President Ho Chi Minh signed with the French representative the September 14 Provisional Agreement with 11 provisions. The two sides pledged to suspend the conflict; we continued to make concessions, ensuring France some economic and cultural rights in Vietnam.
But then France still invaded. Vietnam had to carry out a 9-year long resistance war. With the position after the "earth-shaking" Dien Bien Phu Victory and the ideology of independence and self-reliance, but in the negotiations to sign the Geneva Agreement in 1954, we still made certain concessions to cease fire and restore peace. That spirit continued in the negotiations to sign the Paris Agreement in 1973, so that 2 years later, we could achieve the highest goal of liberating the South, unifying the country, and building a democratic, republican, independent, free, and happy Vietnam.
The Vietnamese have a heartfelt song, “Although our lives love roses, the enemy forces us to hold guns.” For peace, we must wage war, “war for peace.” But war is only fought when there is no other way. During war, we always advocate “fighting while negotiating,” not missing any opportunity for peace, no matter how small; “knowing ourselves,” “knowing the enemy,” “knowing how to advance,” “knowing how to retreat,” etc., finding every way to end the war as soon as possible, reducing blood loss for the people on both sides.
One of the lessons is that peace negotiations require not only great goodwill and determination, but also great courage and intelligence; both independence and self-reliance, knowing how to make principled concessions, taking advantage of every opportunity, achieving optimal goals, and harmonizing the immediate and long-term. The Vietnamese people thirst for peace and have enough courage, intelligence and art to achieve the set goals.
Both sides had their chances and missed them. According to news from many sources (including the Wall Street Journal ), Russia and Ukraine almost reached a peace agreement at the March 2022 round of negotiations in Istanbul, Turkey. The “key clause” of the agreement is that Ukraine will be truly neutral, limit the size of its army and recognize Crimea as part of Russia; it can join the EU but cannot join NATO... In return, Russia will withdraw its troops and restore relations (this is consistent with Moscow's statement when launching the special military operation).
According to the same source, Kiev canceled the agreement at the last minute. Some members of the Ukrainian negotiating team were arrested, and Kiev issued a decree banning negotiations with Russia. The opportunity will not be repeated. If at this time, both Russia and Ukraine agree to sit at the negotiating table, the conditions will be much different, much higher than the missed agreement and the price to pay will be very high, for both sides.
Russia has the upper hand on the battlefield, still standing firm against the Western sanctions, but the outcome is unlikely to be a "white-bellied" one. Modern weapons from the West are pouring in, pushing Ukraine to counterattack before November 2024. However, many experts and scholars believe that Kiev will find it difficult to turn the situation around, and negotiations are still the most feasible option.
In fact, both Russia and Ukraine are talking about negotiations. Previous peace conferences organized by the West and Ukraine have been largely propaganda and rallying forces. Mediation efforts by some countries have not produced any concrete results; there is no sign that the two sides are willing to sit down together. What is the main obstacle?
First of all, both sides set preconditions that are difficult for the other side to accept. It seems that once you start, you have to follow through. Kiev depends heavily on money and weapons aid, making it difficult for it to make decisions on its own. The underlying, decisive factor is the complex proxy war between the West and Russia. It costs money, but dragging Russia into a long-term war that will weaken it is an acceptable price. Some Western leaders do not want to stop the conflict; they even want to drag NATO into direct involvement. There is evidence for this statement.
 |
| The Ukraine peace conference in Switzerland was considered a complete failure as it failed to achieve its set goals. (Source: wissinfo.ch) |
The latest news is that the EU has threatened to sanction and boycott Hungary’s rotating presidency because Prime Minister Orban has shown himself to be moderate in his anti-Russian policy, especially his active role as a “peacemaker” in the conflict in Ukraine. It is true that Prime Minister Orban has not sought the opinion of EU leaders (he will certainly oppose it). But if he really wants to negotiate, the EU will put aside formalities and act together with Hungary.
Both NATO and the West were concerned about the election of former President Donald Trump. As he had declared, he would limit aid to Ukraine and push Kiev to negotiate with Russia. It was not that the former White House boss favored Russia, but that he wanted Europe to shoulder the burden on its own, leaving the US to focus on dealing with China, its long-term systemic rival.
In effect, this is an acknowledgement of the US role in the conflict in Ukraine. It can be said that they do not really want to negotiate, or only negotiate from a position of strength.
Thus, whether or not there will be negotiations depends not only on Russia and Ukraine. Moscow has clearly stated that it is ready to balance interests to resolve the conflict, but this must go hand in hand with the West ending its threats to Russia's security. The major, even decisive, factor is the strategic intentions of NATO and the West led by the US. Therefore, the earliest negotiations will "move forward" will be after the US presidential election, if Mr. Trump is elected and when Ukraine is in an extremely difficult situation.
Recently, the New York Times reported that President Zelensky said he would hold a second peace conference (again in November), inviting Russia to attend to end the conflict. First of all, there will be three conferences on energy security, freedom of navigation and prisoner exchange, paving the way for a summit.
But on July 11, the UN General Assembly passed a resolution on “Safety and Security of Nuclear Facilities,” demanding that Russia “urgently” withdraw its troops from the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and “immediately return” it to Ukrainian control. Russia views the resolution as harmful and politicized, and that Ukraine is the real threat to the safety of the plant. That means there will be countless tricks to obstruct negotiations until they are forced to take place.
The war between Hamas and Israel continues
Some say that the situation of Hamas (and Palestine) is similar to that of Ukraine. But in fact, the two conflicts have many differences. The balance of power is in favor of Israel, even though Hamas is supported by Hezbollah, Houthi and other armed Islamic organizations. The US proposed a plan to negotiate a ceasefire, but it is the US, its biggest ally, that wholeheartedly supports Israel in weapons, politics and diplomacy.
The question is, who really wants to negotiate a ceasefire and move towards a peaceful solution to the Palestinian issue?
 |
| The road to peace is still far away as smoke continues to rise in the Gaza Strip. (Source: AFP) |
For a long time, the Palestinian government has advocated fighting through political and diplomatic means. Palestinian factions and movements have not really found a common voice. Hamas has accepted negotiations to release Israeli hostages, creating favorable conditions to pave the way for a framework agreement that could end the conflict. This is reasonable because Hamas is somewhat weaker.
Israeli leaders agreed to negotiate, but continued to attack, aiming to eliminate Hamas. Israeli bombs hit the headquarters of the United Nations relief agency and a school in the Gaza Strip, killing and injuring many people.
The most basic condition is to recognize an independent Palestinian State coexisting with the Jewish State according to the United Nations Resolution (supported by the majority), but the US and some other countries vetoed it. The United Nations Commission of Inquiry said that both Israel and Hamas committed war crimes, but Washington remained silent.
Despite the great international pressure, it is likely that Tel Aviv will only stop the war when it eliminates Hamas and other armed Islamic organizations that do not attack Israel. With its “guerrilla” organization, Hamas may suffer losses and temporarily lose its position in the Gaza Strip, but it is difficult to completely destroy it, “losing one head will grow another”.
The “negotiation ball” is in the court of Israel and its supporters in Tel Aviv. For these reasons, the war between Israel and Hamas will not end completely if the above factors are not resolved. The conflict may temporarily subside, then flare up again when conditions are favorable.
The road to peace is still arduous, due to the impact of the regional context, the calculations of major powers, outsiders, and the deep, complex conflicts between Israel and Palestine.
Source: https://baoquocte.vn/tu-hiep-dinh-geneva-nghi-ve-con-duong-den-hoa-binh-tren-the-gioi-hien-nay-279298.html
![[Photo] General Secretary To Lam and Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh attend the first Congress of the National Data Association](https://vstatic.vietnam.vn/vietnam/resource/IMAGE/2025/3/22/5d9be594d4824ccba3ddff5886db2a9e)
Comment (0)