In a recent commentary in The Japan Times , Professor Stephen Robert Nagy (International Christian University - Japan, scholar at the Japan Institute of International Studies) has made counterarguments to the argument of the Chinese Ministry of Defense leader on the situation in the Indo-Pacific. He believes that China causes concern among neighboring countries, leading to their natural cooperation with other parties. Specifically, the translated content of the article is as follows.
America causing discord?
At the Shangri-La Dialogue regional security forum, held last weekend in Singapore, Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu said that continued disrespect and provocation by the US and its allies such as Japan was the reason he did not meet with his US counterpart Lloyd Austin, and was also the cause of increasing negativity in bilateral relations.
Minister Li did not elaborate on his remarks. He only openly questioned the US presence in “China’s waters and airspace.” He stressed that after recent near-collisions in the air and at sea, the best way to prevent such a recurrence was for US and other countries’ military vessels and aircraft to stay away from the areas in question.
In the context of China implementing a policy of economic pressure and a gray zone strategy in the Indo-Pacific region, Beijing's accusation of "aggressive actions by the US and its allies" has many unacceptable truths (for China) that need to be clarified.
Liaoning aircraft carrier and Chinese warships during an exercise in the western Pacific
First, Southeast Asian countries have different views on their relations with China, but neither Japan nor the United States can influence those views much.
For example, in the State of Southeast Asia Survey 2023 conducted by the ASEAN Studies Centre at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies-Yusof Ishak (Singapore), 41.5% of respondents said that China remains the country with the greatest influence and strategic power in Southeast Asia, followed by the United States (31.9%) and ASEAN (13.1%). While China maintains its leading position, its influence has declined significantly from 54.4% in 2022, in the face of the growing political and strategic influence of the United States and ASEAN.
The survey also highlighted that “support for the United States among Southeast Asian respondents continues to increase (from 57% in 2022 to 61.1% in 2023) compared to 38.9% of respondents who chose China, widening the gap between the two powers.” Meanwhile, nearly half of respondents said they had “little confidence” (30.8%) or “no confidence” (19%) that China “will do the right thing” to contribute to global peace, security, prosperity, and governance.
Furthermore, the survey found that “most ASEAN members – except Brunei, Cambodia and Laos – have higher levels of distrust towards China than trust”. Specifically, the level of distrust towards China in Myanmar was 80%, the Philippines 62.7%, Indonesia 57.8%, Thailand 56.9% and Singapore 56.3%.
The divergent attitudes expressed in this survey are similar to the ASEAN China Survey 2022, in which ASEAN countries have positive attitudes towards economic relations with China but negative attitudes towards political and security relations, such as the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea (COC). Only 27.4% of respondents have confidence in China, while 42.8% do not answer and 29.6% answer negatively.
It is clear, then, that Southeast Asian countries have diverse views on their relations with China. However, this does not reflect Beijing’s repeated assertions that the US is inciting or influencing China’s neighbors to “gang up” or adopt “anti-China” views.
Concerns about China
Similar to Southeast Asia, Japan and South Korea, while valuing their economic and political relations with China, also have concerns about its behavior and policies.
The Japanese NGO Genron, which regularly surveys Japanese and Chinese citizens about their shared perceptions, reported that many Japanese recognize the importance of stable economic and political relations with China. At the same time, Japanese respondents also said they have concerns about China’s behavior and policies. Current concerns include attempts to reunify with Taiwan by force, the imposition of a new national security law in Hong Kong, and economic pressure and disruption of supply chains.
Similarly, according to the Sinophone Borderlands Project (Palacky University in Olomouc, Czech Republic), which measures China’s global impact, 81 percent of South Koreans expressed negative or very negative feelings toward China, a much higher proportion than all 56 countries surveyed globally. Indirect support for a divided Korean Peninsula, refusal to condemn North Korean attacks on South Korea, such as the shelling of a village on Yeonpyeong Island in 2010 or the sinking of the South Korean Navy’s Pohang-class warship Cheonan that same year, and an unofficial embargo on South Korea in 2016 after it allowed the United States to deploy the THAAD anti-ballistic missile defense system, all contribute to concerns about China.
Therefore, according to Professor Nagy, Defense Minister Li's comments are not based on the perceptions of China's neighbors.
Concerns about China's economic coercion, grey zone strategy… in the region coexist with a deep interest in maintaining strong economic ties with the country.
For China’s neighbors, they understand that their development and economy are tied to smart and selective economic integration with Beijing, which maximizes their strategic autonomy and minimizes their exposure to economic coercion and weaponized supply chains.
Beijing's militarization and inevitable consequences
Furthermore, according to Professor Nagy, Minister Li's comments regarding "seas and airspace" raise other questions about the extent of China's claims.
The argument that “the US is tightening military cooperation in China’s ‘backyard’” is undermining other countries’ legitimate claims to waters and airspace claimed by China.
"Are the East China Sea and the South China Sea part of China's backyard? I am sure Japan, Taiwan and Southeast Asian countries would certainly have a different view, like the US, Canada, the EU, Australia and others, considering China's claims illegal under international law," wrote Professor Nagy.
Ships in the Singapore Strait, connecting the South China Sea with the Strait of Malacca. Peace and stability in the South China Sea helps ensure the common interests of the region.
From the perspective of Japan, the Philippines and Taiwan, their strengthening of defense ties with the US and forms of strategic cooperation with countries like India and Australia are natural consequences of China's behavior.
For example, Beijing’s continued militarization efforts have not abated since joining the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001. From 2000 to 2010, China’s military spending increased by at least 10% each year. The most recent increase was 7% for fiscal 2022, bringing the defense budget to over $229 billion.
China has also deployed extensive anti-access/area denial systems to disrupt the asymmetric advantages of the US Navy, by positioning “carrier killer” systems and other offensive weapons along its eastern seaboard, thereby threatening the US-backed security architecture that protects Washington’s allies in the region.
Coupled with China's large-scale military exercises around Taiwan in August 2022 following a visit by then-US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to the island, exercises involving land and sea assets such as the Liaoning and Shandong aircraft carriers, Beijing's actions pose a serious risk to the sea lines of communication along Taiwan, which are vital to Japan's imports and exports and energy resources.
For Southeast Asian countries like the Philippines, the deployment of cargo and military vessels in their near-shore waters is also under commensurate threat.
The truth (which China finds hard to accept) is that the Indo-Pacific and its sea lanes of communication are of vital common interest, helping to bring peace, prosperity and stability to the region.
Instead of engaging in a long-term strategy to revise regional rules and structures, China should pay more attention to the growing anxieties of its neighbors.
Source link
Comment (0)