Submit to the National Assembly to adjust the GDP growth target for 2025 to reach 8% or more

On the morning of February 12, at the 9th Extraordinary Session of the 15th National Assembly, Minister of Planning and Investment Nguyen Chi Dung, authorized by the Prime Minister, presented the Proposal on the Supplementary Project on Socio-Economic Development in 2025 with a growth target of 8% or more.

If necessary, the deficit can be adjusted to about 4-4.5% of GDP.

The Minister said that 2025 is of special importance, being the final year of implementing the 5-year Socio-Economic Development Plan 2021-2025, the year of acceleration, breakthrough, and reaching the finish line, and at the same time the year of focusing on organizing Party Congresses at all levels towards the 14th National Party Congress and consolidating and preparing well the fundamental factors to successfully implement the 10-year Strategy 2021-2030, marking the time when the country enters a new era of development.

Minister of Planning and Investment Nguyen Chi Dung presents the Government's Proposal. (Photo: DUY LINH)

Any 2021-2025 target that has not been achieved must be determined to be completed; any target that has been achieved must be improved in quality and efficiency. Therefore, GDP growth The whole country needs to reach 8% or more by 2025, contributing to creating a solid foundation to achieve double-digit growth for a long enough period (starting from 2026).

"Growth must be fast but sustainable, maintain macroeconomic stability, control inflation, ensure major balances; develop harmoniously between the economy and society and protect the environment, ensuring national defense and security," the Minister stated.

According to the report, the Government submitted to the National Assembly for consideration and comments on adjusting a number of key targets: the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate reached 8% or more; the average consumer price index (CPI) growth rate was about 4.5-5%.

If necessary, the state budget deficit can be adjusted to about 4-4.5% of GDP to mobilize resources for development investment; public debt, government debt, and foreign debt can reach or exceed the warning threshold of about 5% of GDP.

Regarding the growth scenario of 8% or more in 2025, Minister Nguyen Chi Dung mentioned some notable information such as: growth in the industrial - construction sector of about 9.5% or more (of which the processing and manufacturing industry increased by 9.7% or more); services increased by 8.1% or more; agriculture, forestry and fishery increased by 3.9% or more). Economic sectors grew by about 0.7-1.3% higher than in 2024; industry - construction, especially the processing and manufacturing industry, continued to be the driving force for growth.

GDP scale in 2025 is about over 500 billion USD, GDP per capita is about over 5,000 USD. The average consumer price index (CPI) growth rate is about 4.5-5%.

Growth drivers: total social investment capital is about 174 billion USD or more, approximately 33.5% of GDP (higher than 3 billion USD); of which public investment is about 36 billion USD (equivalent to 875 trillion VND, about 84.3 trillion VND higher than the assigned plan for 2025 of 790.7 trillion VND), private investment is about 96 billion USD, FDI is about 28 billion USD, other investment is about 14 billion USD; total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue (current prices) in 2025 increase by about 12% or more; total import-export turnover in 2025 increase by 12% or more; trade surplus is about 30 billion USD.

Focus on solutions to ensure national financial security and public debt safety

After reviewing, the Economic Committee basically agreed with the targets, requirements, and economic growth scenarios for 2025 in the Government's Proposal and Report, stating that submitting to the National Assembly an adjustment to increase the economic growth target for 2025 demonstrates the Government's determination and efforts in successfully implementing the socio-economic development goals for the 2021-2025 period, contributing to consolidating and creating a solid foundation to achieve double-digit growth for a long enough period, bringing our country into an era of prosperous development.

Chairman of the Economic Committee Vu Hong Thanh presents the audit report. (Photo: DUY LINH)

However, Chairman of the Economic Committee Vu Hong Thanh noted that the production and business situation in early 2025 has not improved much. In January 2025, 58.3 thousand enterprises withdrew from the market. The industrial production index IIP in January 2025 increased only slightly by 0.6% over the same period. The purchasing managers' index PMI was below 50 points for 2 consecutive months, showing that business conditions in the manufacturing sector in Vietnam are narrowing.

Therefore, it is recommended to focus on analyzing and evaluating implementation conditions to ensure the feasibility of the Project, especially focusing on solutions to ensure national financial security and public debt safety.

Regarding the target of an average consumer price index (CPI) growth rate of about 4.5-5%, the Economic Committee believes that adjusting the CPI target is necessary to create space in operating fiscal and monetary policies, supporting economic growth. However, core inflation in January 2025 increased by 3.07%, higher than the average in 2023 (2.71%), showing that inflationary pressure is significant. Therefore, it is recommended to have solutions to control inflation in line with the growth target and stabilize the macro economy.

Regarding the proposal to adjust the targets on deficit spending and public debt, according to the agency in charge of the review, this proposal is necessary to mobilize resources for development investment. "It is recommended to clarify the plan for using the increased deficit and public debt in case of adjustment; at the same time, use resources effectively, strictly implement the provisions of the law on state budget, the law on public debt management; resolutely manage to ensure deficit spending and public debt within the scope decided by the National Assembly in Resolution No. 23/2021/QH15 and Resolution No. 159/2024/QH15, only adjust when all solutions have been implemented and public debt safety and debt repayment capacity are ensured, especially the target of the Government's debt repayment obligations compared to total budget revenue", said Chairman Vu Hong Thanh.

Delegates attending the meeting. (Photo: DUY LINH)

The audit agency also emphasized a number of solutions to successfully achieve the GDP growth target of 8% or more in 2025. Specifically, closely monitor developments in the world economic and political situation, correctly assess the situation, promptly respond to policies; continue to strengthen endogenous capacity, determined to achieve the growth target but maintain the foundation for sustainable and long-term development, especially macroeconomic stability, major economic balances, ensuring social security, national defense and security.

There are specific solutions, assigning responsibility for implementation to innovate public investment management; ensuring the disbursement of allocated public investment capital and additional funds. There are practical and effective solutions to attract social investment, successfully implementing the policy of "public investment leading private investment"; paying attention to resolving existing problems in public investment disbursement and national target programs.

Effectively exploit opportunities from 17 signed FTAs; promote and soon sign free trade agreements with new and potential markets. Closely monitor to effectively exploit trade and technology shifts in the context of trade wars between major economies.

Implement the Party's policies correctly, ensure the effectiveness of streamlining and rearranging the organization and apparatus; do not interrupt work or affect people, production and business activities of enterprises and pay attention to the issue of increasing labor productivity and social security policies. Have substantive and effective mechanisms and policies to protect, encourage and reward cadres who dare to innovate, dare to think, dare to do, dare to take responsibility for the common good, not for personal gain.

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