Thu Duc City - Di An - Thuan An - Bien Hoa are economic growth poles that need to be promoted.

Ho Chi Minh City Statistics Office pointed out experts' forecasts that Ho Chi Minh City's economic trend may be opposite to previous years - Photo: TTO

On the afternoon of April 2, the Ho Chi Minh City People's Committee held a meeting on the socio-economic situation in the first quarter and key tasks and solutions for the second quarter.

In the first quarter of 2025, the total regional product (GRDP) is estimated to reach 457,600 billion VND, an estimated increase of 7.5% over the same period, this is the highest growth in the first quarter from 2020 to present.

Total retail sales of goods and consumer services revenue are estimated to increase by 14.2% over the same period. Total export turnover is estimated to increase by 5% compared to 2024. The export situation tends to recover, many businesses have received enough orders until the end of the second quarter of 2025. The index of industrial production (IIP) is estimated to increase by 6.8% over the same period.

Industrial production still maintains a stable growth rate, showing the recovery and sustainable development of Ho Chi Minh City's industry. Most businesses in key industries have orders until the second quarter.

To date, Ho Chi Minh City has assigned and allocated a detailed public investment capital plan for 2025 of VND67,400 billion. Of which, central capital is VND3,200 billion and local capital is VND64,000 billion.

According to data from State Treasury Region 2, by March 31, Ho Chi Minh City had disbursed 4,550 billion VND, reaching 5.4% of the plan.

Total state budget revenue reached 151,000 billion VND, reaching 29% of the estimate. Total local budget expenditure was 15,700 billion VND, reaching 9% of the estimate.

Assessing the growth results in the first quarter of 2025, Mr. Nguyen Khac Hoang - Head of the General Statistics Office - said that the growth of 7.5% in the first quarter was better than other localities. This growth had a major impact from construction and services.

In addition, recently the General Statistics Office surveyed businesses about development trends in the coming time, 42% assessed that the situation in the second quarter would be better than the first quarter.

However, Mr. Hoang said that besides the advantages, international organizations and economic experts predict that US tax policies are likely to increase tensions and disrupt trade, affecting countries with large openness such as Vietnam and Ho Chi Minh City.

According to Mr. Hoang, this year's economic trend may be opposite to previous years, meaning the last 6 months of the year will be more difficult than the first 6 months.

In addition, the business environment in Ho Chi Minh City has not changed positively. Currently, the rate of enterprises entering the market is lower than that of enterprises leaving the market. In the first quarter of 2025, for every enterprise entering the market, 1.4 enterprises will leave the market. In 2021-2022, this rate will be 1-0.6, 1-0.9 and in 2024, the rate will be 1-1.

Besides, import of goods increased by 15% but export increased by only 5%, showing that businesses are also facing difficulties from foreign markets.

"In the first quarter, Ho Chi Minh City had a good start, but to achieve the growth target of 8.5% as assigned by the Government and the determination of 10% as Ho Chi Minh City set out is very challenging. Therefore, in the second quarter, we must accelerate to make up for the decline in the third and fourth quarters," said Mr. Hoang.

According to Dr. Truong Minh Huy Vu - Director of the Ho Chi Minh City Institute for Development Studies, the 7.5% growth rate in the first quarter of 2025 is a high rate but still falls short of the set plan. To achieve the growth target, the first quarter must reach 8.4-8.5% and last until the end of the year to reach 8.5%.

Mr. Vu said that to achieve rapid growth in the short term, it is necessary to stimulate demand and focus on investment. However, the disbursement of investment capital has only reached 5.4%, which is not yet the target of 7%. In addition, it is necessary to remove obstacles and promote private investment.

According to Mr. Vu, the growth of Ho Chi Minh City is also closely linked to the Southeast region. If the growth around Ho Chi Minh City is not good, it will certainly affect private investment.

In the long term, Mr. Vu believes that business development and innovation are key solutions. However, the number of bankruptcies in the first quarter shows many worrying issues, and further research is needed into the reasons why businesses stop operating, because this is the force that helps the city grow this year and the following years.

Besides, the Central Government has assigned growth to Ho Chi Minh City, the city needs to assign growth to departments, localities and businesses.

Thu Duc City - Di An, Thuan An - Bien Hoa form a very developed urban cluster.

Also at this conference, Director of the Ho Chi Minh City Institute for Development Studies Truong Minh Huy Vu pointed out the growth poles promoting the economy of Ho Chi Minh City.

Mr. Vu said that in terms of administrative boundaries, Thu Duc City and the growth poles of Di An, Thuan An (Binh Duong), and Bien Hoa (Dong Nai) form a very developed urban cluster.

Currently, Thu Duc City's planning has been approved, this growth cluster needs strong investment.

Besides, in the South, District 7 and Binh Chanh District are also growth poles, connected with waterways, logistics ports, Soai Rap River...

Mr. Vu also said that these should be considered two important growth poles and there must be projects linking these two urban clusters, the data has clearly demonstrated these two growth poles.

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Thao Le

Source: https://tuoitre.vn/tp-thu-duc-di-an-thuan-an-bien-hoa-la-cuc-tang-truong-kinh-te-can-thuc-day-20250402162125991.htm