President Erdogan aspires to bring Türkiye back to the world stage

From Ottoman Memories

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan won a narrow victory in the May 28 runoff election to be re-elected for a third term. With 99.43% of votes counted, official results released by Turkey's Supreme Election Council (YSK) on Sunday showed Erdogan winning with 52.14% of the vote, while his opponent, opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu, received 47.86%.

President Erdogan and his desire to bring the 21st century back to the international arena image 1 — A giant banner supporting Mr. Erdogan hangs on a wall in Istanbul during this year's Turkish presidential election campaign - Photo: Wall Street Journal

Erdogan will thus remain in power for another five years, becoming Turkey’s longest-serving head of state in modern times. In a speech to a sea of cheering supporters in the grounds of the Presidential Palace in Ankara after his victory on Sunday evening, Erdogan recalled that Monday (May 30) would mark the anniversary of the conquest of Constantinople in 1453, thereby drawing a line from the past to Turkey’s current footprint on the world stage.

“Tomorrow we will mark the conquest of Istanbul once again. How beautiful the commander was and how beautiful his soldiers were, as they say. I consider all of you to be the sons and daughters of those ancestors,” the 69-year-old politician said. “These elections will be remembered as a turning point in history.”

History seems to weigh heavily on Erdogan’s mind. This is not the first time Erdogan has brought up the subject of Ottoman glory. He has invoked Türkiye’s memory of it several times during his presidential campaign this year. As one of the most prominent Muslim leaders, Erdogan has positioned Türkiye as a rival to Saudi Arabia and Iran for influence in the Muslim world.

President Erdogan has also expanded Türkiye's political influence across the Middle East and Central Asia, spurring the country to build an impressive arms industry while playing a major role on the international stage, in issues related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the wars in Syria, Iraq and Libya.

Now, as he begins his third decade in power, the world will be faced with a politician as flexible as he is unpredictable — one who, after surviving a coup attempt and multiple domestic crises, has excelled at wringing concessions from allies and rivals alike as he pivots.

“He will continue to be a transactionalist,” said Soner Cagaptay, author of several books on Erdogan and director of the Turkish Studies Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

Economic challenges

But political analysts say cementing Mr Erdogan’s vision of Türkiye as a great power will be difficult. The very problems that have won his opponents significant support – a falling currency and one of the highest inflation rates in the world – have limited Mr Erdogan’s room to maneuver and show signs of getting worse.

The Turkish lira fell 0.4% on Monday, trading near a record low of 20.16 to the dollar. Türkiye’s central bank has stepped up its defenses against the lira’s devaluation, depleting the country’s already limited foreign reserves. The cost of insuring against default on Turkish government bonds in foreign currencies has risen by nearly 25%, according to the Wall Street Journal.

To achieve his global ambitions, Erdogan must address the country’s financial woes. Turkey’s foreign assets have been in the red after years of spending tens of billions of dollars to prop up the lira. The currency has lost nearly 80% of its value against the dollar over the past five years as Erdogan has pressured the central bank to cut interest rates despite high inflation — the opposite of what central banks around the world do.

Türkiye’s need for foreign currency has deepened Erdogan’s dependence on Russia and the Gulf states. Moscow sent Türkiye $15 billion last year to build a nuclear power plant and deferred Ankara’s payments for natural gas that could run into billions of dollars, providing a much-needed bailout for Türkiye’s finances.

In the Middle East, President Erdogan’s government has recently restored relations with a series of longtime rivals in an effort to end years of tensions sparked by his support for several Arab Spring uprisings in 2011. By mending ties with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt and Israel, Erdogan hopes to ease Turkey’s regional isolation and ease the country’s foreign currency shortages.

But economists say the influx of money from Russia and the Gulf will not be enough to rescue Türkiye’s roughly $900 billion economy. “Erdogan still has no reasonable solution to these problems. He doesn’t have a clear program to deal with them and will be in trouble after the election,” said Ilhan Uzgel, an analyst and former dean of the international relations department at Ankara University.

Foreign affairs problems

On the foreign policy front, the top challenge on Mr Erdogan’s agenda will be to resolve a standoff with Western allies over his willingness to do business with Russia and defend what he sees as Türkiye’s long-term interests.

President Erdogan and his desire to bring the 2nd millennium back to the international arena picture 2 — Turkish President Erdogan is under pressure to make concessions to NATO on the issue of admitting Sweden - Photo: EPA

President Erdogan has sometimes frustrated American and European leaders by deepening economic ties with Moscow, selling drones and other key weapons to both Ukraine and Russia and banning warships from unrelated countries from entering the Black Sea.

Western capitals are also concerned that Mr Erdogan is sowing division within NATO, of which Türkiye has been a member since the 1950s. Mr Erdogan is currently blocking Sweden from joining NATO because of his displeasure with the alleged exile of Kurdish fighters in the Nordic country, and has made the extradition of individuals wanted by Ankara a precondition for Stockholm’s membership.

The issue has emerged at the center of a tangled web of tensions between Ankara and Washington and other Western powers. The Biden administration has conditioned the $20 billion sale of F-16s to Türkiye on Erdogan agreeing to let Sweden join NATO. Other leading NATO members are expected to press Turkey to agree to expand the alliance ahead of a July summit.

“We are at a standstill. There needs to be a dialogue to start relations with the European Union as well as the United States,” said Gulru Gezer, a former senior Turkish diplomat who served in both Russia and the United States during Erdogan’s previous term.

But for Mr Erdogan’s longtime supporters, pride in Türkiye’s repositioned position on the world power map far outweighs any financial concerns or foreign policy challenges.

“We see what President Erdogan has done for the country, the bridges, the roads, the defense industry,” said Refika Yardimci, a voter in Istanbul on Sunday. “Before, our country was in a deep hole. But with his decisive stance, he helped Türkiye rise.”

Nguyen Khanh

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