On July 11, in Hanoi , the National Economics University and Vietnam Economic Magazine held a seminar on "Restoring aggregate demand, promoting economic growth in the new context".

Will growth accelerate in the last two quarters of the year?

At the seminar, forecasting the economic picture of Vietnam in the last 6 months of 2023, Associate Professor, Dr. Nguyen Duc Trung, President of Ho Chi Minh City Banking University, and the research team proposed 2 growth scenarios of 8% and a more optimistic 8.9%. According to scenario 1, the GDP for the whole year is expected to increase by only 6% (the growth rate in the last 6 months of the year must reach 8%), in which, the growth rate in the third quarter must reach 6.8%; the fourth quarter is 9%, respectively 0.3 and 1.9 percentage points higher than the scenario proposed at the beginning of the year. Scenario 2, if the growth rate at the end of the year reaches 8.9%, we will reach the target as expected by the Government, reaching the GDP for the whole year of 6.5%. Thus, the growth rate in the last two quarters of the year must reach 7.4% and 10.3%. These growth rates are respectively 0.9 and 3.2 percentage points higher than the scenario proposed at the beginning of the year.

Seminar scene.

Although the scenario has been studied comprehensively, Associate Professor, Dr. Nguyen Duc Trung is very concerned when import and export activities are gloomy due to the impact of the decline in global demand. The total import and export turnover of goods in the first and second quarters only reached 316.73 billion USD, down 14.7% over the same period last year; of which exports reached 164.45 billion USD, down 12.1% (increased by 17.3% in the first 6 months of 2022); imports reached 152.2 billion USD, down 18% (increased by 15.5% in the first 6 months of 2022). President of Ho Chi Minh City Banking University Nguyen Duc Trung said that the third and fourth quarters are expected to accelerate to the finish line in 2023 with the efforts and concerted efforts of businesses. However, he also expressed concern that in the first 6 months of 2023, 91,195 enterprises stopped operating, an increase of 21.6% over the same period, and 8,831 enterprises were waiting for dissolution, an increase of 2.8% over the same period... Commenting on the growth target of 6.5%, MSc. Tran Thanh Long, Deputy Director of the Department of National Economic Synthesis, Ministry of Planning and Investment, said that achieving the growth target of about 6.5% in 2023 will be a huge challenge, requiring great efforts and determination from all levels and sectors. Accordingly, the industrial sector is recovering slowly, production and business are shrinking, exports and imports are decreasing, and are more clearly affected by the sharp decline in demand in key markets such as the US, EU, and China. Low credit growth shows the difficulties of businesses, especially small and medium enterprises. The actual lending interest rate for many businesses is still high, and bad debt tends to increase. Production and business activities face many difficulties; the resilience of many businesses has been eroded after the Covid-19 pandemic and now they are facing many new challenges. The major challenges now are the market, cash flow and administrative procedures in solving business problems...

Delegates attending the seminar.

More accurately identify the structure of Vietnam's economy   Associate Professor, Dr. Tran Dinh Thien, former Director of the Vietnam Economic Institute, also emphasized that we should not just look at the number of more than 75,874 newly established enterprises and think that economic growth will improve. "The death of enterprises is real, but are the newly established enterprises real or not? So what is the basis for the growth in the remaining 6 months?", Associate Professor, Dr. Tran Dinh Thien raised the issue. In the current context, according to the former Director of the Vietnam Economic Institute, we need to re-identify the structure of the economy, the real economic structure, the relationship between internal and external forces. In particular, we need to seriously identify institutional issues, we cannot loosen policies, we need to have unusual and implementable solutions, going deep into the institutional structure. “Along with the resonance of external difficulties and the open economy while “weak health, strong winds, especially poisonous winds”, this allows us to more accurately identify the structure of the Vietnamese economy when the economy relies on cheap labor”, Associate Professor, Dr. Tran Dinh Thien said and emphasized the point of view that after 2-3 years of Covid-19, the economy is exhausted, so we cannot act like a normal economy.

News and photos: HONG PHUC