Current policies are not sufficient to achieve the goal.
The report, which forms the basis for the government’s annual climate assessment, found that current climate policies were not enough. While new measures such as tougher emissions reduction obligations will be introduced from 1 July 2025, at the same time, cuts in petrol and diesel taxes planned for the same year are undermining the effectiveness of emissions reduction measures.
In total, these measures are estimated to reduce around 2.7 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent from the transport sector by 2030.
The gap to the 2045 net zero emissions target is currently estimated at around 19 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent. The 2030 and 2040 targets under the EU’s Shared Responsibility Regulation (ESR) will also be missed by several million tonnes.
Transport and land sectors are the main weaknesses.
The transport sector was singled out as one of the areas facing serious problems. The national target of reducing emissions from domestic transport by 70% by 2030 is expected to be missed, with a shortfall of around 6 million tonnes.
On the other hand, the land and forest (LULUCF) targets are particularly challenging. Due to declining forest growth, high logging and natural loss, the carbon sequestration capacity of Swedish land and forests has declined sharply. In the period 2021–2025 alone, the deficit is estimated at 52–59 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent — larger than Sweden’s total annual emissions of 44 million tonnes.
Under EU rules, this deficit would automatically transfer to the ESR sector, making it almost impossible to achieve the EU's binding targets for 2030.
Mixed reactions from government and experts
Minister Romina Pourmokhtari said the increase in emissions in 2024 was just a temporary event and emissions would fall again from 2025. She affirmed that the government was working to improve the ability to achieve EU climate goals.
However, the Environmental Protection Agency still assesses that, even taking into account the use of ETS emission units and the emissions saved, Sweden will still fall short of the EU's ESR target for 2030 by around 0.4 million tonnes of CO2.
The president of the Swedish Society for Nature Conservation, Beatrice Rindevall, strongly criticized the government's climate policy: "We now see clearly in writing that the current policy will cause Sweden to fail to meet any of its climate goals, which is extremely risky."
The opposition also reacted strongly. Rickard Nordin, the Centre Party's climate and energy policy spokesman, said: "The government's climate policy is seriously damaging Sweden. Raising the electricity tax and replacing the green car bonus with a subsidy for scrapping old cars is a serious mistake. This will cost us jobs, damage businesses and cost us fines from the EU."
Source: Source: Vietnam Trade Office in Sweden
Source: https://moit.gov.vn/tin-tuc/thi-truong-nuoc-ngoai/thuy-dien-co-nguy-co-khong-dat-duoc-bat-ky-muc-tieu-khi-hau-quoc-gia-nao.html
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