Information about 'strong storm appearing in Quang Ninh in early May' has no scientific basis

According to monitoring data over the past 30 years, there has never been a strong storm that made landfall or directly affected Quang Ninh in early May 2025.

Recent information circulating in public opinion said: "Quang Ninh may have to face the storm starting from May 4-5 or even earlier. In case there are factors that reduce the speed, the landfall time may be slower. However, it should be noted that when approaching the mainland, the storm may weaken somewhat due to terrain friction and changes in atmospheric humidity."

On the afternoon of April 20, discussing the above information, Mr. Nguyen Van Huong - Head of Weather Forecast Department, National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting said: "Based on the general understanding of climate laws, necessary conditions for the formation of strong storms, historical statistics, and importantly, current long-term observation and forecast data from meteorological agencies of Vietnam and international (USA, Japan, China, Australia, European meteorological agency), information about a strong storm (level 12) appearing and directly affecting Quang Ninh in early May 2025 is not scientifically based".

According to Mr. Huong, according to monitoring data over the past 30 years, there has never been a strong storm making landfall or directly affecting Quang Ninh in early May 2025.

Regarding the storm season in the East Sea and the Northwest Pacific, storms are most active from about June to November; Strong storms, especially those that can directly affect the Northern region such as Quang Ninh, are often concentrated in the middle and late months of the storm season (from July to October). The conditions for a tropical cyclone to develop and reach the intensity of a strong storm (such as level 12) require a combination of many factors that were not present in early May 2025, so a strong storm could not form.

Mr. Nguyen Van Huong added that the weather is always uncertain, and the possibility of other dangerous weather patterns appearing in May 2025 (thunderstorms, tornadoes, lightning, hail, strong gusts of wind, and localized heavy rain) cannot be ruled out; as for the scenario of a level 12 storm affecting Quang Ninh in early May 2025 as rumored, it is unlikely to appear.

Regarding the natural disaster season of 2025, the Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting assessed that the ENSO phenomenon is in neutral conditions; from May to July 2025, ENSO is likely to maintain a neutral state with a probability of 70-90%.

Based on current observation and forecast data, it is predicted that in the 2025 storm season, the number of storms and tropical depressions in the East Sea and affecting the mainland is likely to be similar to the average number of storms and tropical depressions in the same period (about 11-13 in the East Sea and 4-5 storms affecting the mainland). The possibility of storms will be more concentrated in the second half of the storm season.

In May, heat waves are likely to appear nationwide, from June, heat waves will decrease in the Central Highlands and the South. Heat waves in the North and Central regions will last until around August, from September 2025, heat waves will gradually decrease, the intensity of heat waves will be equivalent to the average of many years in the same period.

From May to July, moderate to heavy rains are likely to occur in the Northern, North Central, Central Highlands and Southern regions. Total rainfall from May to July nationwide is generally approximately equal to the average of many years, with the Central Highlands and Southern regions in May generally being 5-20% higher than the average of many years during the same period.

Thu Cuc

Source: https://baochinhphu.vn/thong-tin-bao-manh-xuat-hien-tai-quang-ninh-dau-thang-5-khong-co-co-so-khoa-hoc-102250420182625819.htm