The domestic pepper market is experiencing a volatile week, with pepper prices continuously falling in recent days. On October 19, 2024, pepper prices in key regions continued to decrease sharply compared to yesterday, trading around 143,000 - 143,500 VND/kg, an average decrease of 1,000 VND/kg. This downward trend has coffee growers concerned about the possibility of price recovery in the near future.
The sharp decline in pepper prices in recent days can be explained by many factors, of which the sharp decline in pepper prices is one of the important factors. Pepper prices today (October 19, 2024) decreased sharply compared to yesterday, showing that the market is on a downward trend.
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| Pepper price forecast October 20, 2024: Will the market continue to be in turmoil? |
The 2023 pepper inventory carried over plus the 2024 import volume of about 40,000 - 45,000 tons, shows that the export supply until the end of the year will be lower than every year. This can put pressure on pepper prices and indirectly affect pepper prices.
However, not only the pepper price factor, the international pepper market is also facing many difficulties. The price of Brazilian ASTA 570 black pepper is at 6,400 USD/ton, the price of Malaysian ASTA black pepper remains stable at 8,700 USD/ton. The price of Vietnamese black pepper is trading at 6,500 USD/ton. The main export markets are European countries and the United States, however, the demand in these markets has not shown signs of recovery.
In addition, harsh weather conditions are also making it difficult for pepper production. Vietnam's 2025 coffee crop is expected to be harvested almost entirely in February, with some regions extending to March and April, 1-2 months later than previous years, due to the impact of prolonged drought. This could cause limited coffee supply in the coming time, affecting pepper prices in the market.
Based on the above analysis factors, it can be predicted that pepper prices tomorrow, October 20, 2024, will continue to trend downward, but the decrease may be narrower than today. The main factors affecting coffee prices in the coming time will be:
The recovery of pepper demand in major export markets will be the decisive factor in Vietnam's pepper export prices. If demand has not recovered, pepper prices will hardly increase.
Vietnam's new pepper crop output will directly affect pepper supply and prices in the coming time. If the new pepper crop output is lower than expected, pepper prices may increase.
To cope with the volatile pepper market, pepper farmers need to closely monitor the market to make appropriate business decisions. Factors should be considered such as: Harvesting pepper when pepper prices reach a suitable level, avoiding harvesting when prices are low. Preserving pepper to sell when coffee prices increase, avoiding selling off when prices are low. And growing other crops to minimize risks, avoiding dependence on one type of crop.
*Information for reference only.
Source: https://congthuong.vn/du-bao-gia-tieu-ngay-20102024-thi-truong-tiep-tuc-chim-trong-bat-on-353505.html
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