The textile market in 2025 is considered risky and unpredictable due to new political factors from major importers and increased competition.
Holds 2nd place in exports
In 2024, the industry textile Vietnam will reach the finish line with about 44 billion USD, an increase of about 11% compared to 2023. With this result, in 2024 Vietnam will rise to the second position among the countries exporting the most textiles and garments in the world.
One of the reasons that helped Vietnam's textile industry achieve the above results is that the company has received a flow of orders shifting from Bangladesh. However, according to Mr. Vu Duc Giang - Chairman of According to the Vietnam Textile and Apparel Association, orders from Bangladesh are basic orders, with large quantities but low prices. Therefore, not all businesses can receive the order flow, especially those producing high-end, fashion items such as Hoa Tho and May 10.
Analyzing Vietnam's competitors in the world textile and garment export market last year, Mr. Hoang Manh Cam - Deputy Chief of Office of the Board of Directors of Vietnam Textile and Garment Group, informed that in 2024, Vietnam will reach 44 billion USD in export turnover, followed by India, with an expected growth of 6.9-7% for the whole year. India produces similar products to Bangladesh, so it benefits the most from the trend of shifting orders.
For China, in the first 11 months of 2024, China exported only 273.4 billion USD of textiles and garments, an increase of only 0.2% compared to the same period in 2023. However, for the item that is a direct competitor of Vietnam, which is garments, China exported 144 billion USD and decreased by about 2.8% compared to the same period.
In Bangladesh alone, due to political instability, garment exports in the first 10 months of 2024 decreased by about 3.7% compared to the same period, averaging about 2.8 - 3 billion USD per month, while at its peak this figure reached about 4 billion USD/month.
“ However, Bangladesh’s export trend to the US and EU started to recover in terms of market share in September and October. Since garment is the backbone of Bangladesh’s economy, bringing in about 80-85% of foreign exchange earnings, the country quickly created conditions for the recovery of textile production, ” said Mr. Cam.
Mr. Cam also predicted that Bangladesh's textile and garment production will return to normal levels after the second quarter of 2025. At that time, there will be fierce competition with Vietnamese textile and garment enterprises because Bangladesh is enjoying preferential tariffs for underdeveloped countries, while Vietnam's labor costs are nearly three times higher than its competitors.
For other textile exporting countries such as Sri Lanka and Türkiye, they also benefit from the trend of shifting orders from Bangladesh, but the growth rate is not high and the scale is small, so there is not much concern.
The market will have many complex factors.
Based on the Group's research, Mr. Cam also acknowledged that in the first half of 2025, the garment industry will continue to recover from the end of 2024. At the same time, there are some signs of better growth as the industry's main import markets such as the US and EU have a more positive economic recovery. People's income and consumer spending will also improve after the interest rate cut roadmap continues.
However, from the second half of the year onwards, importers will not close long orders but shorter and smaller orders. In particular, orders moving from Bangladesh will gradually decrease, currently the country's exports have gradually stabilized. " According to some customers, many customers did not leave but remained in Bangladesh even when the conflict occurred, " said a representative of the Vietnam Textile and Garment Group.
In addition, when President Donald Trump takes office and implements a new tax policy on US trading partners, there is a possibility that Vietnamese textiles will be subject to an additional 10% tax. This is a major difficulty because the US is currently the industry’s largest import market.
“In misfortune there is fortune”, in case the US implements the new tax policy, Vietnam has the ability to level the gap in textile prices with China in this market, which means the ability to expand market share.
Regarding internal factors, the lack of raw material supply continues to be a bottleneck for the textile and garment industry. This is also a factor that prevents businesses from taking full advantage of tariff incentives from free trade agreements.
Along with that, labor fluctuations continue to be a challenge for textile and garment enterprises in 2025. To overcome this difficulty, the Group as well as domestic textile and garment enterprises continue to care for the material and spiritual life to retain workers. Invest in appropriate technology to increase productivity, meeting the requirements of new standards.
At the same time, continue to develop input materials, but do not develop mass products but focus on "creating a difference" through difficult products, green products and recycled products.
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